The truth of the green treasure

[Guide] in the green treasure, the palm of the interest of science and technology shares soared, is the story of the hand-travel industry and mergers and acquisitions driven by the capital game.

A A-share market game stocks how crazy, probably many people can not imagine.

July 12, 2013 11:30 A.M., 354.8 times times P/E, 5.46 billion yuan total market value, half a year, the stock price soared 4 times times, this is the first "demon stock" in green treasure.

The same madness also has the technology of palm, as of July 12 noon closed, after a sharp rise of twice times this year, the palm of the technology has a price-earnings ratio of 208 times times, the total market value of up to 14.1 billion yuan.

The rise in share prices is the story of the hand-travel industry and the capital game driven by mergers and acquisitions.

According to the economic Observer, the first half of this year, including Palm technology, Bo Rui spread, Datang Telecom, Zhejiang newspaper Media, Huayi Brothers listed companies to invest in the game mergers and acquisitions market funds have been up to tens of billions of dollars. In stark contrast, the global gaming industry has only 4 billion dollars in mergers and acquisitions throughout the 2012.

Mergers and acquisitions and the expected mergers and acquisitions have underpinned the madness of many hand-swim concepts.

The logic of the game is that high P/E companies buy low P/E shares of unlisted companies. That is, in the two-tier market with high price/earnings, and then to the first-tier market low-cost acquisition of enterprises. In this way, the performance of listed companies can be guaranteed to grow, and the acquired enterprises can be successfully set up. But once the stock price soars, the listed company can seek the new target of merger better and rationally.

But the problem is that the money has leverage, and that makes it a quick call.

The truth of the green treasure

Since April this year, the stock has soared from the low 10 yuan to 42 yuan. But during this period, the operation and performance of the company did not change significantly. In the capital market, the sharp rise in the Chinese green treasure is due to this year's booming mobile gaming market and some obscure factors.

In the case of China Green, it has become a leader after June 21, if it is only a follower of the market by mid-June.

June 21, in Shenzhen, China-Qing Bao held a conference, officially announced the agent Mo Lin Technology first mobile game "fairy war."

Data show that the "fairy War" is made by Chengdu Mo Lin Technology, well-known game producer Chen as the creation of a 2DMMORPG (2D large multiplayer online role playing game) products.

In view of Chen Mo's industry position, the stock price of China-Qing Bao from the release of the day of 26 yuan soared to the current 42 yuan. Clearly, the market for the "fairy war" high hopes. But little is known about the "birth" of the "epic masterpiece, the top ARPG (action role-playing game)".

One in the online games industry more than 10 years of veteran game Personage said to the economic observer, "fairy War" was formerly operated by the Kunlun World agent of the Tour "Extreme Fairy" hand tour version, this is the Shenzhen Mo Lun has developed the game of the most failed. These people said, "Supreme Fairy" failure has become a foregone conclusion, the Kunlun worldwide has largely abandoned the game operation.

"Supreme Fairy" official website of the information to support the above statement, "in order to give us a more stable gaming experience, we plan to 15:00-17:00 on the afternoon of April 25 to all servers for downtime maintenance." The game will not log on during maintenance. Since then, the "supreme spirit" of the official website no longer updated.

Even so, in order to win the "fairy War", China Green Treasure still out of high prices. Economic Observer received news that the "Fairy war" agent royalties up to 7 million yuan, the industry is rare. For this statement, China Green Treasure chairman of the assistant, marketing director Li Minghui in an interview with the Economic Observer said that the agency costs and the proportion of trade secrets, inconvenient to say.

For the "birth" problem of the Fairy War, Li Minghui responded: "Every operator, in the operation of the product when the means are not the same, the method is not the same, the nine cities and NetEase are operating the World of Warcraft, but the performance is not the same."

Mo Lin CEO Chen Mo in an interview with the Economic Observer, said, hand tour of Mo Lin is just beginning to do, whether successful, and no absolute grasp. "We feel that this is an industry trend to follow up, but we are not sure that this product can be successful, nor to the outside or the green PO to make such a commitment, this product will be very powerful." "Chen Mo said.

In addition to the uncertainty, but also by the market to give prospective hand tour of new products, the performance of the green Po people worry. In the July 9 disclosure of the medium-term 10 to 10 of the high transfer plan, July 10, China Green Bao announced that 2013 1-June attributable to the listed company shareholders net profit of 17.5 million-20.5 million yuan, an increase of 66.37% to 94.89%. The company also disclosed that the first half of mobile gaming revenue accounted for 10% of the total revenue.

And the annual report shows that 2010, 2011, 2012, the green treasure in the realization of net profit of 35.5164 million yuan, 12.2121 million yuan, 16.692 million yuan, year-on-year growth of 13.65%,-64.12%, 31.92%.

People familiar with the economic observer said that today, supporting the revenue and performance of the company is still listed in the main game "resistance", the annual contribution to the majority of green Bao profits.

Li Minghui said, the main profit is "Red Tour" matrix, can not be said to rely solely on the "anti-Japanese" section. Before the acquisition of the product is the majority of the client game, many products are still adjusting, "for the contribution of Yu Sili, now should not be the big head." "Li Minghui said.

The logic of mergers and acquisitions

Crazy is not just in the green treasure. According to the data, as of July 12, the gaming industry this year, the other bull shares of the technology price-earnings ratio of 208 times times, the total market value of 14.1 billion yuan. By contrast, traditional game bosses in the country are dwarfed.

According to the latest data from the economic observer, the US-listed Giants network has a market capitalisation of only 1.885 billion dollars and 11.41 times times earnings per year as of July 12. Shanda's total market capitalisation is only 1.106 billion dollars, 5.84 times times earnings. The 2012 annual report shows that the network net revenue of giant net is 2.075 billion yuan, net profit is up to 993.7 million RMB. Shanda Game also outstanding performance, the net revenue for the year 4.682 billion yuan, the whole year net profit of RMB 1.113 billion yuan.

With the Chinese green treasure inexplicable rise different, palm interest technology crazy from a merger. February 5 This year, the palm of the Science and Technology Bulletin, to cash + directional additional way to buy Hainan Move network Pioneer Network Technology Co., Ltd. 100% Equity (hereinafter referred to as "dynamic network Pioneer"). The total price of the acquisition is 810 million yuan, which corresponds to 14.19 times times the trading earnings of the pioneer of the move network. Dynamic network pioneer mainly engaged in web games, 2012 to achieve net profit of 57.08 million yuan, net assets of 52.4 million yuan.

It is noteworthy that Palm Technology 2012 net profit of 82.3 million yuan, if the acquisition of success, with the above performance commitment to calculate, means that the next year's performance of the technology will be more than 100% of the growth.

Another reason to prop up the technology is that it invested heavily in the introduction of overseas copyright, self-development nearly a year of mobile games "Stone Age ol" will be launched in March.

Haitong Securities analyst Baiyangdian that the use of its only one listed company's advantages to rapidly promote internal expansion and foreign mergers and acquisitions two roads, it is possible from the size of revenue and the number of products to become China's largest mobile phone games and web game developers.

Palm technology is as crazy as the Green Po. At the end of the price calculation, palm-fun technology to reach the highest price of 95.76 yuan this year, compared to its 16 yuan last year's issue prices soared 498%.

Crazy mergers and acquisitions originate from an active buyer's market. The people briefed on the economic observer said that in addition to mobile network pioneer, roaming valley, etc. have been or will be in the pocket of the company. At present, the top 20 of the game developers in the country have been targeted by the capital. And some companies just want to involve the concept of hype, then stare at some early game companies.

Mergers and acquisitions are often staged. More influential example is Datang Telecom to the acquisition of nearly 1.7 billion yuan to play in Guangzhou, Zhejiang newspaper Media fund-raising about 2.5 billion yuan to buy Hangzhou winger and Shanghai Hao Fang. And a long suspension of Huayi brothers may be planning to spend 2 billion yuan mergers and acquisitions wide silverside. In addition, the days of the boat culture, Everest information in July are invariably due to the suspension of major asset reorganization, is also rumored to be the acquisition of Hand tour company.

Perhaps by the nature of capital, these mergers and acquisitions all follow the logic that high P/E companies buy low P/E shares in unlisted companies. "In the two-tier market with high P/E price, and then to the first market low-cost acquisition of enterprises, so as to ensure that the performance of listed companies to grow at a high rate, and the acquisition companies also welcome this way." "A senior person involved in a game acquisition said to the economic observer.

The people said that at present, the domestic game industry mergers and acquisitions on the subject of the average price-earnings ratio of 12-15 times, and the corresponding, today's palm-fun technology and the Sino-Green PO P/E ratio has been as high as hundreds of times times.

The obvious example is that Palm technology uses the high valuation advantage of its gem listing to buy 14 times-fold earnings from the 60 times-times earnings ratio, thus guaranteeing growth for the next three years. "Because they have enough security margin to buy other companies, 80 times times to buy 40 times times, the performance can be increased by one times." "A capital market person, who declined to be named, said in an interview with the Economic Observer.

"Why does the stock price rise fast?" said the person. is because the stock price rises quickly can better and reasonable to find the target. "There is a positive logic here," if the real estate company to buy a game, it does not move, because it is only 5 times times P/E, 5 times multiples to buy 20 times multiples of the assets is in the diluted P/E. said the person. The fast-rising share price, in turn, pushes the pace of mergers and acquisitions in reverse.

The ruined ecology

What happens to the technology if it doesn't merge?

The annual report shows that the 82.3 million yuan net profit was created in 2012, with an increase of 47.8% and a net profit of 16.92 million yuan in the first quarter of this year.

None of this clearly supports its billions of market capitalisation. In fact, Palm technology May 11, 2012 landed on the gem of the total market value of only 2.619 billion yuan, and now its total market value has reached 14.1 billion yuan.

In addition to the normal capital market logic, some of the hidden factors have been put on the stage.

May 13, the original owner of the first-hand technology initial shareholder 48.04 million shares of restricted shares lifted, accounting for the proportion of total equity as high as 29%. and Huayi Brothers May 16 Evening announcement, since the lifting of the ban, the company has sold Palm technology shares total 5.1 million shares, set now 285 million yuan, but also a profit of more than billion. At the same time, "Run away" and the palm of the two-bit technology vice president of the turnover of the current.

According to the technology announcement, the board received the resignation of Ms. Zhang Yunxia, the secretary and deputy general manager of the Board on June 18, 2013. Zhang Yunxia applied to resign from the company's director, Secretary of the board, deputy general Manager and financial officer. On May 21, Yang Yi, deputy general manager of the company, also applied for personal reasons to resign from the company.

It is unclear whether the stock price rally has induced executives to resign frequently, or to push up their share prices to allow shareholders and executives to cash in.

There is a similar situation in green Po. Public information shows that the shareholders with up to 31.93% shares in Shenzhen Investment Holdings Limited and Bao Tak Technology Group Co., Ltd. initial shareholders of the original shareholder restricted shares will expire on December 31, 2013.

High stock prices for refinancing and lifting the stock is now facilitated. But the downside is that this growth is often unsustainable and can only satisfy a few years of brilliant performance.

Danger is everywhere. "This wave of money is a leveraged money, it must be quick to withdraw, which is the market's danger and short-sighted." "These capital market people said that the market has never cared about success, the market is concerned about short-term growth, when the acquisition succeeds, it's PE to 15 times times, the market hot money is always chasing stories."

This logic in the green treasure body has manifested clearly, "the new project is hope, Mo Lin gave it developed a hand tour, let him turn over, the market is telling the story, plus he has a 10 to send 10 of the performance, the valuation speculation high, more mergers and acquisitions will be absorbed into the whole of the Green Treasure's team.

In fact, the Sino-green treasure in mergers and acquisitions appear particularly urgent. China Green Bao insiders said the economic observer, the recent internal meetings of some companies usually only about half of the senior executives can attend, "they all went out to talk about mergers and acquisitions."

Of course, high returns also mean high risk. It is reported that the palm of the technology in 2012 before the cast of 8 hand tour all the fold. And the situation of the Sino-green treasure is even worse. In recent years, the acquisition of the game project in Green Bao nearly 60, basically did not succeed.

More importantly, under the madness, more people are ignoring the risks of the gaming industry itself. Public data show that in the domestic hand tour industry, 30% of the hand swim on line, the on-line 90% failure probability. This is also the said one of the online games, the president of the identity, he said, hand-travel development is a high-risk industry, the basic is "escape."

At present, the monthly water over tens of millions of "million club" is the Hand tour pyramid spire, but can climb on the spire of the game is few.

Third-party data monitoring agencies entbrains data show that as of April this year, there have been 18 domestic hands to swim the monthly water more than tens of millions. And so far, the monthly water over tens of millions of more than 20. In addition, as channels and marketing costs continue to soar, the industry no longer profits.

The company president said, now do a good hand tour gross profit margin is 20%-30%, some strong hand tour can be done with channels 37 split, and the weak is much worse.

With the advent of sky-high mergers and acquisitions, capital is destroying the industry's pristine ecology.

"The hand tour is not no money, inexperienced entrepreneurs play the game, in the past a small game team can survive hundreds of thousands of a year, now no hundreds of or even tens of millions of inputs, it is difficult to have the effect, and this is the reverse squeezing the game developer's living space, plagiarism, homogeneity of the competition is serious, has become a domestic hand swim lingering shadow. "A new game out of the street, it began to have imitation, change the background, change the music, content unchanged, which makes the practical game of people uneasy." Said the president.