The yen's trend is unsustainable

⊙ East Airlines Finance Jiangshan ⊙ East Airlines Financial Jiangshan, the yen, has recently seen a sharp rise in the exchange rate, the reason for the rise was mainly technical and market-wide avoidance of the dollar, and the resurgence of risk aversion as global stock markets retreated and US economic data weakened again became the main driver of the yen's continued higher.　　The author believes that the yen exchange rate to return to the beginning of the 90 yen below the position is difficult. Despite last week's weak global stock market, which is largely the result of a continuous spike in profit-making demand, the recent weakness of the U.S. economic data is also damaging the trend of recovery, with the help of a series of fiscal and monetary policies, the U.S. economy is gradually out of the mire,　　The recovery in financial markets and increased investor confidence in the banking sector will significantly benefit the future recovery of the US real economy. In Monday, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the US economy was clearly stabilising and financial markets were doing well, and President Zoellick said the world economy is slowing and the economy is expected to resume growth as early as 09. This optimism has discouraged investors from the risk aversion caused by small amounts of U.S. data being less than expected.　　And the news that Goldman Sachs and Morgenstern, who filed for the TARP and paid 45 billion of billions of dollars in rescue money, have further encouraged investors ' enthusiasm for banking stocks, a sharp rise in market risk appetite, triggering a sharp rally in stocks and a resurgence in non-US currencies. Japan's deflationary risks have continued to rise, trade conditions have deteriorated, the flow of capital into the yen has deteriorated in recent months, and Moody's has downgraded Japanese foreign-currency bonds and foreign-currency ratings, compared with most recent US economic data. The dire local economic outlook and ultra-low interest rates have raised the longer-term demand for Japanese investors to sell yen to buy other currencies, especially as the US economy has steadily stabilized, leading to an increase in global risk appetite.　　Japanese individual investors have begun to bet heavily on the weakness of the yen, whose positions have risen to their highest level in 6 months, with Japanese individual investors holding more than 150,000 yen margin short positions in the number of contracts, according to the Tokyo Financial exchange, which could cover up to $125 billion trillion in short positions in the yen. From a technical point of view, if U.S. economic data continues to weaken this week and the stock index declines again, the short-term yen will rebound to around March 19, when the Federal Reserve announces a 93.5 trillion yen-high level of QE. But to break through this resistance position is very difficult, once the U.S. stock index again sharply higher, market risk appetite, the dollar against the yen has continued to rebound to about 100 yen.