There is little likelihood of inflation in China

10th, the National Bureau of Statistics released data, May China's consumer prices total level (CPI) fell 1.4% Year-on-year, the chain down 0.3%. May China's factory price of industrial products (PPI) fell 7.2% Year-on-year, the chain Rose 0.1%. In the macro-economic trend of warmer environment, CPI, PPI again double drop, which PPI decline to expand, the chain of two consecutive months the performance of the rebound is attracting attention.　　The CPI is still low to reflect the current price situation in China has not changed significantly, and PPI year-on-year decline suddenly increased the general concern. Zhang, senior economist at the National Information Center, said in an interview that the May PPI year-on-year decline was mainly influenced by the tail-warping factors. Statistics show that the 2008 industrial prices in the first 8 months in the rapid rise in May 2008 than the April factory prices and raw materials, fuel, power purchase price rose by 0.8% and 1.3% respectively, significantly higher than this year's May quarter-on-quarter increase,　　As a result, the year-on-year decline in industrial prices in May 2009 continued to widen. Current domestic real demand is still insufficient Zhang analysis points out that, despite the recent two months, ample liquidity helped demand increase, but also contributed to a significant rebound in the prices of some basic products, but still relatively low compared to last year's high, industrial consumer prices are still in the overall decline in the channel.　　In addition, the low level of CPI also reflects the current domestic real demand is still low, the demand for PPI is also the lack of a constraint on the rebound. In this case, Zhang said, although the tone of macro-control has been finalized, but the specific industry in the current situation is still facing different situations. Therefore, in the process of regulation, the State should carry out the structural adjustment of the policy according to the changes of the market and the characteristics of the industry. Take the air transport industry as an example, recently with the international crude oil prices soaring, the air transport industry's operating costs have increased, the air transport market is always in a depressed state.　　In this case, the relevant departments need to carry out targeted policy control, to help related industries to tide over the difficulties. China's economy continues to rise out of deflation although the May PPI fell by as much as 7.2%, significantly higher than the April 6.6% decline, but from the month-on-month price changes, since the first time this April industrial prices from negative to positive, PPI has been rising for two consecutive months.　　Among them, oil and natural gas mining, petroleum processing and coking, chemical fiber, non-ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industry, the main products prices have been 3 consecutive months rose, showing a clear rebound trend.　　Dongxiangan, chief macro analyst at Southwest Securities, said the trend of the price index showed that China's economy continued to emerge from the shadow of deflation, with high growth and moderate inflation likely next year. Market inflation expectations are set to fall. With the first quarter of record lending and international commodity prices rising in the reality, the chain of the PPI index increased the market inflation expectations? "The statistics from calendar year are not difficultIt is found that in China, the price of manufactured goods and the prices of production goods have always maintained a relatively consistent trend of change, while the means of production prices and international production prices to maintain a more consistent relationship of change. Zhang pointed out that the recent sustained changes in international commodity prices may have contributed to the rise in PPI, with no noticeable pick-up in domestic demand. "Increased liquidity, too fast money supply, coupled with a weaker dollar and higher international commodity prices." These factors will undoubtedly strengthen the market's inflationary expectations. "Zhang said," but as real demand does not pick up now, and real demand does not rise, inflation expectations are bound to fall, so the likelihood of inflation is very likely over time. Zuo, chief economist at Galaxy Securities, said CPI and PPI were still low, investment demand and consumer demand, In particular, private investment has not been activated, the unemployment of laid-off and migrant workers still exist, these are not enough to support the formation of inflationary expectations. (Xinhua News agency, Beijing, June 10, Lo Yufan)