There is still room for short-term AUD

The head of the Minsheng Bank's foreign exchange trader Jiang AUD/USD climbed to a 7-month high after months of upward adjustment. The Australian dollar has been boosted by the recent improvement in market risk appetite and the risk of a credit downgrade in the US.　　But the weakness in Australian GDP and the likelihood of an increase in unemployment have made the medium-and long-term trend less clear. Risk appetite to boost the Australian dollar in recent trends, the Australian dollar has a greater correlation with equities and commodity prices, with a second-rate spread factor. This shows that market risk sentiment directly affects the Australian dollar's trend. As the stock market continues to move higher, the US has a risk message of losing its AAA credit rating, adding to the bullish sentiment on the Australian dollar. Australia's failure to inject a lot of liquidity into the financial system as countries carry out QE has prompted the Australian dollar to become one of the most rewarding currencies.　　If QE succeeds, the Australian dollar will be boosted as markets continue to pursue risk. Positive support for economic data this week's survey showed that the Australian business sentiment index continued to improve in April, under government stimulus measures. The NAB business sentiment index rose 7 to 10, continuing to rebound from the lows of the early 1990, with the corporate confidence index falling to 14, but still above February-22. In recent months, the Australian government has launched a total of 52 billion Australian dollar economic stimulus measures, which partly support the optimistic outlook for economic recovery. The economic upturn has also led to a significant reduction in the Australian dollar since last September, when the RBA cut interest rates by 425 points, to 3% in record lows.　　The RBA kept interest rates unchanged in May, more stimulating the arbitrage trade. Long-term challenges the Australian Treasury Secretary Costello the GDP growth rate for the fiscal year June 30, 2009 to 0 from the previous 1%, and raised the unemployment rate to 6% in the quarter of June 2009, and the unemployment rate in June 2010 will rise to 8.25%, up from earlier estimates. From the Australian government's estimate of GDP, the Australian economy will be difficult to grow in the coming year. This will undoubtedly bring some pressure on the Australian dollar's long-term trend.　　At the same time, the fragmentation of the global financial system, weak growth in the job market and a lack of dynamism in consumer demand have made risk appetite change in the future.　　Second, Australia's prime minister, Kevin Rudd, is set to open elections in 2010, but if the Senate hinders its reform agenda, the election will likely take place this year and political instability will have a negative impact on the Australian dollar. Traders recommended that the Australian dollar should be appropriate short technical side, the AUD/USD daily line MACD still has momentum, while RSI has no downward trend, the short-term Australian dollar still has room for growth, it is recommended to buy the AUD appropriately at a low point. In the medium term, AUD/USD's next key position is near 0.7929, the point for the 50% drop in last July-October, if the Australian dollar can not break through that point, it is recommended to short.