Three-year central vote reset, reserve ratio rising or approaching rapidly

Author: Wang Hui in the certificate network news since last week, the continued warming of the three-year central vote to restart expectations, this week, the announcement was dashed. The central bank announced in Wednesday that the central bank will issue only one issue of the March issue of 1 billion yuan in the 3rd (Thursday), which is unchanged from last week. Analysts said that in the March issue of the one or two-tier market spreads further narrowed to 15 basis points in the background, the circulation still failed to magnify, to a large extent, showing that the liquidity recovery in the open market operation of the marginalization of the pattern is still continuing.　　With the rapid accumulation of maturing funds in the open market and the imminent expiry of the six bank differential reserve ratio on March 15, the time window for the central bank to raise the reserve requirement rate again is approaching. The March issue of a delicate return to the central bank announced 2nd, in order to maintain a stable base currency growth and currency market interest rates are basically stable, March 3, 2011 (Thursday) Central Bank will issue the 2011 11th Central Banks notes. The current period of 3 months (91 days), a circulation of 1 billion yuan, to be issued in a discounted manner, to all open market business-level traders to bid for price.　　At the same time, the announcement by market participants that the three-year central vote would be restarted will be dashed. It is noteworthy that this week in the open market, the total amount of funds reached 145 billion yuan, compared to the 98 billion yuan last week, the background of the March central vote is still kept at the level of 1 billion yuan, it is undoubtedly somewhat subtle. On the one hand, the last Wednesday month central votes 1 billion yuan circulation, is when the weekly deposit-type financial institutions reserve contributions, the previous week in March, the circulation of the central vote was once a small amount to 10 billion yuan level.　　On the other hand, the market is more relaxed this week than last week, and the March issue of the one or two-tier market spreads have narrowed significantly, the central bank can fully use this opportunity to increase the size of the March issue. The yield curve of the middle bond shows that the two-tier March-year central vote yield level is around 2.77%, which is about 15 basis points higher than the current level of the March central 2.6242%, and 15 basis points have significantly lower spreads than the 23 basis points of last week. With the market capital of the loose, spreads narrowing, has been very conducive to the March issue of the volume of the central vote.　　This week's March issue of the central vote is still at 1 billion yuan in the amount of land level, it is undoubtedly a subtle implication. Reserve ratio increases or has been difficult to avoid the current central bank liquidity control ideas, Shanghai securities brokerage trader said, plus this week, the central bank will be in the open market for 15 consecutive weeks of net investment, the total amount of capital invested is expected to be more than 1.1 trillion yuan. The pressure on the central bank to recycle liquidity is still enormous, with the recent easing of market funding and the impending expiry of the six bank's differential reserve ratio on March 15. The three-year central vote, if restarted, will inevitably have an alternative effect on reserve ratios.　　In this context, the fall of the three-year central vote is likely to mean a further increase in the reserve requirement rate. On the judgment of whether the three-year central vote will be restarted, some market participants pointed out thatAfter this week's failure, the possibility of a three-year central vote still cannot be ruled out. 2nd, the Interbank bond market remaining period of 2.5 of the central vote yield level is reported above 3.6%, the yield curve shows the 3-year central vote reference rate of return on 3.75% lines.　　According to recent research from Wanguo, Oriental securities, and postal reserve banks, as soon as the 3-year central vote is restarted, its interest rate will likely be located near 3.6%, although still significantly below the level two, but still acceptable to some institutions. A major Shanghai trader said that if the three-year central vote were positioned at a rate of 3.6% to 3.7%, the market would still have a certain demand.　　If the central bank restarts the three-year issue, it is expected to remain "tentative" in the initial volume. According to China Merchants Securities to the central bank liquidity control judgment, in the open market operation structure can not improve, the withdrawal function is limited, the central bank is expected to maintain a monthly deposit reserve ratio of 1 times the policy rhythm, the March reserve ratio is a foregone conclusion.