To move forward in hesitation

AIA Huatai fund manager Shen Tao relative to the placid bond market, the stock market has been in the swing upward state since the beginning of April, but investors are always in the contradiction of buying or not. On the one hand, it seems that we have just recovered from the financial crisis, the first quarter with some macroeconomic indicators to the good, the stock market has improved, whether it is necessary to have a two-time bottom to say that the economy is indeed gradually starting to improve?　　On the other hand, since the two quarter, the real economy has begun to develop a good momentum, will not further extend, including the U.S. economy is no longer to continue to turn bad signs, whether it is conducive to our continued holding stock positions? Along with investors ' hesitation, the stock market is unfolding in a step-by-step way: After the United States led the introduction of new energy policies to support economic development confidence, the domestic solar, wind, nuclear and other new energy concepts are also on the scene; after seeing signs of domestic economic recovery, many strong cyclical plates such as shipping, machinery,　　Electrical equipment and other industries have also been busy; in the expectation of abundant liquidity and domestic boom, the rising demand for resources and commodities also created the soaring of nonferrous and coal stocks, while the booming of auto and real estate sales stimulated the speculation of related stocks. Amid the noise of the market, many macro figures are increasingly showing that the economy may be moving away from the bottom, including a growing number of new loans, rising money supply and purchasing managers ' indices, rising real estate and car sales, and so on; We may have to wonder whether it is in the midst of a financial crisis. But there is no doubt that these figures show not only the strength of government policy, but also the strong demand and resilience of the domestic economy, and on the contrary, such strong demand is the guarantee that our country can lead the way out of the financial crisis.　　Of course, the focus on the real estate industry is very important, and its sustainability may be a forward-looking indicator of the ongoing economic recovery. After half a year of shocks, the Shanghai Composite Index has rebounded by 1000 points, and the current valuation level has risen markedly, although expectations of corporate earnings for 09 have risen from around 15% per cent from the end of 08 to about 10% per cent on the current year-on-year rise, The market-wide dynamic average P/E has reached about 30 times times, are we already in a bubble? Perhaps bubbles are everywhere, and when yields in the bond market reach a very low level, there is also a big bubble in the fixed-income market?　　When Buffett shouted cash equals rubbish, how many choices do we have? The old saying, the market is always in the despair of the outbreak, in the hesitation, in the end of the carnival. There seems to be some truth to it.