To the left, right, wearable equipment.

At the beginning of 2015, CES, MWC, Apple Watch released, a series of three fire so that smart can wear into the center of public opinion. Each forum various interpretations endless, some blood surging all things intelligent era opened, some people still worried Gao after all can not satisfy the hunger ... Is the big time open or is it still foggy?

Looking at the trend, to grasp the source, the chip is the source of intelligent terminal innovation, we found that chip manufacturers are indeed active in the distribution of things networking, wearable, car networking and other emerging areas, see table 1. So, in the post-smartphone era, the discussion about wearing a replacement smartphone was put on the agenda. Is it really the post-smartphone age? The big trend is OK, but it's too early to say, but it still feels bony. Chip products relative to consumer-grade products generally at least 6-12 months ahead of time, from the point of view of resource input, the individual think that the layout of more than the real material resources input, smart phone is still the main battlefield.

The rise of the emerging sector must be a demonstration of market leaders, which in the past have been the educators of smartphone market leaders and markets. But for Apple Watch, Apple is playing brand and fashion, rather than services and features that most Android companies cannot emulate. Apple does not offer an innovative solution to the problem of wearable bottlenecks. It can be said that this time Apple Watch is not the industry's expected to wear the industry savior.

So, where is the way to wear the future?

After years of hard struggle, where should you go in the future? This paper attempts to give a thought. There are at least two types of mainstream views:

1, from the current handset accessories to the other can be replaced by: "Smart phone +"?

2, can wear is wearable, not the same fireworks, but how the fireworks bloom, when Bloom, is unknown.

Go left: "Smartphone +"? It's too early to replace smartphones, 3 big bottleneck technologies to break

If you say that because of LG and other manufacturers of smart watches using the Gaotong 400 chip platform, or some two or three-wire manufacturers using MTK GSM chip to launch a number of phone-enabled smart watches, even in smart watches and other wearable to add independent network components (such as WiFi, SIM card, etc.), and add more sensors and chip equipment, began to talk about wearable replacement mobile phone, personally think it is too early, farewell to the "mobile Phone center theory" Mo too urgent!

Smart can wear instead of mobile phones, the current bottleneck is not cost

Now a lot of equipment intelligent starting point, is the Iron triangle: "Traditional equipment + Networking module + mobile app." With the maturity of networked communication module, the cost of "+ Internet" is decreasing. If you can provide new intelligent experience services, this cost is affordable to the user, not to mention as the scale effect of the module further magnified, the marginal effect of this new cost will be approaching 0.

The replacement of mobile phone application scenario, is still in the optional phase of the subsidiary

The current smart watch instead of mobile phone functions, especially the call function, there are two categories: 1, Bluetooth answering calls, similar to the machine tool, 2, the use of mobile phone chip program. From the use of the scene, the first category is a typical auxiliary. The second type is limited to the endurance pain point, the present stage basically is the same as the chicken ribs, the user uses the scene is not many. And for Internet surfing, it is not worth mentioning, so, at this stage can wear more is the notification class application and with the mobile phone pair use.

The replacement of mobile phones, still depends on 3 key technology breakthrough progress

Wearable alternative mobile phones are the main constraints: wearable "small" and mobile phone screen "big" contradiction between. The current mobile phone's mainstream screen is 5-5.5 inches, which is unacceptable for wearable purposes. The key point to solve this problem depends on 3 aspects of technological breakthroughs: 1, flexible devices, commercial 2, battery endurance technology, 3, human-computer interaction technology.

Flexible devices

For the flexible screen, the current commercial is the surface, Samsung S6 Edge to do is both sides of the surface. Its evolution route is curved surface-> folding-> flexibility. The industry generally judged that 2016-2017 will be expected to be commercial scale, the main constraints are the process yield and cost. October 2014, Samsung SDI successfully developed a flexible battery, coupled with graphene technology in the last two years of technological breakthroughs, flex-Flex batteries will be a reality. Coupled with the smart phone has been developed in the flexible circuit, wearable equipment really "curved" can be worn is no longer distant, Samsung 2014 wrist Equipment Gear Fit has been equipped with a flexible screen, but still a distance from the dream of flexibility. If the flexible screen and flexible batteries and other devices can be commercial scale, will be wearable replacement of the mobile phone, a key step to achieve when small applications when the large on-demand change.

Battery Endurance Technology

Wearing such a small size, the endurance is always wearable pain, especially the "+ Mobile Communication module" can wear pain, real-time wireless connection for wearable equipment is a luxury. We see some gratifying changes taking place in the field of endurance Nu Duan, including new battery material research and development test, battery energy density upgrade, rapid charging technology popularization, wireless charging mature, these are wearable future to independence of the strong support, battery-run conflict between supply and demand is close to inflection point, but to make breakthrough progress still need to wait.

Human-Computer Interaction technology

In the field of human-computer interaction, the iphone popularity led to touch interaction, but in such a small size can be wearing a touch is obviously contrary to the human nature of the interactive way, voice, posture (gesture), image recognition, such as the free hand of the interactive way more suitable for wearable products. Emerging interactive mode, the biggest problem now is the accuracy to be improved, and machine intelligence learning, the rise of large cloud data, will be the Gospel of intelligent identification technology applications. In the emerging interactive mode, voice interaction has the ability to promote the size of wearable products, but also in line with the use of wearable equipment to liberate the hands of the scene. Posture (gesture) recognition, similar to smartphones, can also be used in the use of sensors in wearable products can be widely used, specifically used to capture human posture of wearable products will also have a broader market situation. Image recognition, eye recognition, etc. due to the limitations of technology, cost, experience and so on, the scale of commercial still need to wait.

The development of intelligent terminal hardware and software technology is alternately rising. In the era of the functional machine, the application is less than the hardware performance (phone, SMS), and later, the emergence of intelligent OS solves the problem of application richness. And now, with the application of the great wealth and the constant rise of power consumption, to the screen, endurance and other key hardware must be a breakthrough in order to further develop the time! 3 Bottleneck technology breakthrough, is wearable terminals to replace the smart phone day, into the "Smartphone +" phase.

Go right: Do "Wear +"? Discard the traditional demand thinking, excavate the need in the subdivision market, explore the scene service

The market characteristics of wearable terminals are different from the general requirements attribute of a smartphone, so at present, each requirement of wearable terminals is fragmented and scene-specific, and can be worn in a completely different category from mobile phones. As a result, wearable players must discard the idea of providing standardized products for mass users, digging for the newly-needed scene of wearable products, and even doing the thinking of flexible customization production.

Many wearable users can wear a hand ring for a period of time, from the functional point of view has been a good understanding of the body, in the absence of major changes in the user to wear wearable will be further reduced, in the absence of service delivery, there is often a knowledge of the tracking data can be how the sense of powerlessness. How to let users continue to use, rigid service is the key to enhance the stickiness.

Now, where is the rigid opportunity to wear a terminal? Personally, the focus is on how to play the unique characteristics of the smart phone that can be worn differently: it is closer to the human body, more convenient and the first angle of view, is from the market segments, especially the mining industry market!

From the point of view of market segments, there are at least two types of individuals first, the population dimension, the need for specific segments of the population, such as for patients, the elderly, children, pregnant women, they have a need for wearable needs, and the second is the time dimension, at a specific time period, including the need for work (such as the military to carry out the task), Or the need for specific goals (for example, to lose weight or fitness or hobbies).

Real medical can be worn early, and the niche market serving the big health sector just needs to remain the focus of the moment.

The industry can wear hot spots mainly medical wearable and sports health can wear two types. Medical wearable, due to limited conditions such as wearable equipment/sensor accuracy, medical device certification, and the unique threshold of the medical system, is still difficult to pick up in a short time, and Apple watch is hard to change. The search and advance of the market will not stagnate, and there is a breakthrough to be made.

In the medical accuracy does not reach the medical level at the same time, we invariably see the movement of health market opportunities, and sports health market with consumers on the health quality of concern and increasing. How to tap the big health can wear just need to become the key to the success of the player. Products, gradually from the bracelet, watch, extended to the apparel and footwear market. Personally think that need to go back to the source, the traditional sense of wear and wear need to be intelligent, what kind of intelligence?

The first word: "Wear"

The typical dress is obviously clothes. The traditional wearable "small" more is the specification and the Man-machine interaction small, the intelligent clothing has obviously broken through this point, but in fact the intelligent clothing "big" is the sensor obtains the data the "big", but is not the man-machine interaction "big".

The so-called smart clothing, is to monitor the health of the sensor implanted into clothing, socks, testing the user's heart rate, breathing and activity. In addition to the price, experience, precision problems, but also need to think about why users should wear this smart clothes in peacetime, more reliable is still a subdivision of the crowd, such as pregnant women, such as athletes in training competitions, sports fitness during the wear, rather than expect the user at all times in the personal wear.

Such products have been published in the majority of foreign products, such as Athos sports pants, omsignal compressed clothing, Sensoria socks, smart shoes and so on, put on the corresponding heart rate, gait, muscle function and other physiological data, can be viewed in real-time app, It can provide monitoring and analysis in motion after providing reminders or exercise.

The second word: "Dai"

Compared to wear, wear more categories, such as traditional wear watches, helmets, jewelry, headphones and so on. Smart watches have been relatively popular and have indeed been like a watch, smart headphones have intelligent hearing aids, such as bracelets, the intelligence of a slightly unreasonable. For the "wear" type of intelligent wearable, the key is to find a subdivision of the group, grasp the traditional clothing smart upgrade just need to point.

Sports Health subdivision market for runners and riders worth further excavation

From the point of view of sports fitness, running and cycling are the two most popular forms. If the smart shoes inside is the gospel of the runner, then the smart helmet is the necessary equipment for the rider (note: This article does not discuss the smart bike). Whether it's a runner or a rider, communication, socializing, music, and navigation are just needed, and for riders the smart helmet needs security. Smart shoes, child shoe manufacturers have moved to launch children's smart positioning shoes, selling point is accurate positioning, remote detection, real map, historical track, emergency alarm and light social. It is clear that smart positioning shoes are a combination of children, positioning two core just need, and thus be optimistic. For the fitness crowd, Li Ning and China Rice technology cooperation will push smart shoes, is expected to stimulate the market segment.

Compared to the excitement of smart shoes, the industry's demand for riders is slightly quieter, with few products on the market. Market rumors, Baidu in the development of anti-fog haze riding smart helmet. From a rider's point of view, smart helmets can also evolve toward smart glasses, providing more first-view service applications. From the consumer group, riding this segment of the group has gradually from the extreme sports enthusiasts to the mass spread of the trend, and the rider's consumption capacity is outstanding, for riders of wearable products worthy of further market excavation, perhaps another small outlet.

Industry segment, wearable terminals will play a more and more role as a "controller"

Industry market angle, the most obvious trend is wearable will provide more extended connectivity function, in the automotive, smart home industry as a "controller" role, compared to mobile phones, the main advantage of wearing is more convenient. For example, Apple Watch can open doors, and LG and other companies have similar live demonstrations. It is reported that a number of car manufacturers will start to develop wearable car keys, the corresponding products will be listed in 2016.

Summary: Go left-"smartphone +", go right-"wear +" is pain, after the pain is the spring!

Wearable future, left or right? At present, whether to go to the left-"smart phone +" or go right-"wear +", all need a breakthrough in bottleneck technology, committed to leading the market development, the establishment of core barriers to the manufacturers should seize this big trouble brought about by the historical opportunity! And for many vendors in the mining fragmentation scene just need to think twice before the line, give a user to wear the reason! There are reasons, there is a market, there is a prospect, if really give no reason, as early as the early wash and sleep, turn to other tuyere, the wind here is not big enough!

"What can I do to overtake you?" asked the Chinese netizen. , Gates believes that successful people must first have a strong belief in what they do. He mentioned that he had made his own computer graphics and text interface, the experts at that time that such a interface is too stupid and too slow response. But Gates said at the time that it was only Microsoft 1.0 and that there were more updates and optimizations to follow.

He thinks that even if you are wrong at first, if you insist on doing it, one day you will do it right. He felt that any young man had a chance to surpass him, but he had to do it at first, not to be anxious.