Top Network President Zhangqiushie: Mobile Internet early next spring outbreak

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NetEase Science and technology news April 18, 2012 seventh session of the Mobile Internet Summit Forum held today, NetEase science and technology will be live broadcast this Congress all day. Top NET President Zhangqiushie said in a keynote speech that the Chinese mobile internet will be viewed optimistically in the coming spring, so many developers have to do is "live".

In the keynote address of the "China Mobile internet breakout Point", Zhangqiushie said that Chinese developers face many problems, including how to stand out from the millions of apps, how to build an easy access to fees, how not to be swallowed up by the Big Mac, how to avoid rampant black cards, how to avoid the promotion of brush rankings, etc. These are the problems that inevitably arise during the rapid development period.

He analyzed the outbreak point to appear several conditions, the first is to pay the way to be convenient, mature. The second is the operator for hegemony to open the warehouse to put food, the third is the giant pillars, the fourth is the smartphone users to exceed the function machine. The fifth is user identity and willing to pay. He predicts that in the era of the mobile internet, China will generate three to five hegemony, and developers, the profit will be greater than 60%, flat 30%, the loss of 10%.

He said that China Mobile internet has undergone many stages of development, "from the 2007 iphone, Android origins to 2011 China Initiation, to the current Giants hegemony, follow the blind, pattern evolution." "For the time of the outbreak," he said, "I am not particularly able to eat in 2013, but I think the most optimistic estimate will be after spring next year." ”

Top NET President Cho Water

The main contents are as follows:

I am the top of the net Cho water, first of all thank you for taking the time to participate in this conference, thanks to the United States, Taiwan, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Qingdao and other overseas guests and new and old friends from afar, welcome you.

2004 a group of young people set up a free, free, open banner, began the China Mobile Internet exploration process, the top network since then began the first TOP50 selection. We held the first TOP50 Awards conference in 2005 at the Jing-Rui hotel.

To cheer the young people. The top net to this year has been the tenth years, this decade over the network experienced SP ERA, WAP ERA and today's smartphone mobile internet era, experienced the whole process of the development of the industry. At the end of this year, the network will hold a 10-year annual meeting, the SP ERA, WAP era and the current app age of new and old friends together, I hope everyone will meet again.

Regarding the selection of the seventh session of the TOP50, will be by the top of the network CEO Pama, here I represent the top of the network to participate in the selection of more than 200 judges, experts, to give this Congress sponsored enterprises, Partners and Media Tongren express my heartfelt thanks, but also thank the Great Wall, csdn of the separation of support.

Here I would like to share with you the topic of communication, China Mobile Internet explosion point.

This topic may everybody feel, how does such a topic, erupt? Why do you want to talk about the outbreak point when mobile Internet is so hot in the 2010? With my observation, do I feel the detonation? It blew, but did it? Have you all been sent here? Because I've been through a couple of stages, Several stages of the time when the state I feel is not the same, everyone should be very easy to earn money, now I see money is more difficult, I would like to explain my point of view.

First, describe the image of a smartphone user in this big environment, this is China's users, is our users, the first is not accustomed to pay, because the current payment methods are coming from the United States, so China's customary pay model or telephone fees and some of the transaction of some of the payment methods; the second is reluctance. The third is to pay the procedure is not very convenient now, more trouble, the fourth is that they have access to the free app; The fifth one is now the app still has some security, the hidden trouble of fee deduction, this is the status of smartphone users, give them a picture.

The second is the state of the app developer, the first two days in the Tencent mobile micro-Observation said a paragraph, I think very image, he said that with the dream network mixed with three or four listed companies are in a precarious situation, followed by the Apple Android shop mixed, some birds, ninja more than thousands of miles to pick one. With Taobao mixed out The yuan club business, less than one out of 10,000, followed the Big Mac mixed, Big Mac steady earn no doubt, small fish shrimp difficult to grow up on the day, leaving the giant without root without roots, arduous struggle to survive, this may be a lot of people exist mentality.

Now the industry is there for developers, the first is how to stand out from the million app, how to build a relatively easy toll channel, how not to be swallowed up by the Big Mac, how to avoid rampant black card, how to avoid the promotion of the brush rankings, these problems exist for developers, like mountains in front, is the blueprint so beautiful, Why our real life is so hard, this is the state of the developer.

Here is the state of the Big Mac, and now just Guang said, everybody now these Big Macs, now I divided, probably at least six big, together is the Internet, SP, this is the original chunk, and then the operators, including domestic and overseas operators, and then the equipment terminal manufacturers, software providers, Consumer electronics manufacturers, television and chip, what are these six parties doing?

First, migration, we all move towards their opponents or in the opposite direction;

Second, crossing the line;

Third, hegemony, the most important in the future for a period of time we want hegemony, we do not admit, but in fact there is no such a lot of hegemony.

So I think the present state is a leader, the lack of hegemony, ecological reconstruction, the era of the Communist. Unlike the SP ERA, there is a China Mobile, Chinese unicom is of course the Overlord, can dominate the entire industry, now the whole industry overseas have three very obvious overlord, Google, Microsoft, Apple, in China now is the communist era, everyone is doing platform, all say I most open, my proportion is the highest, everyone come to play with me, We make money together. But just how many of us should we follow to survive and develop?

The following state I imagined, in the outbreak state, this industry is what kind of state? I said the first is to generate hegemony, must be in China to produce three to five overlord, is three overlord or five overlord I do not know, Tencent is the Overlord or China Mobile, China Telecom is the Overlord, or Huawei, ZTE is the Overlord, I do not know, but I think there will be no more than 5, or three PA or five PA, these overlord to follow the open warehouse to put food, let everyone live more moist, at the same time to form the alliance relationship, these several overlord to form a division of cooperation.

With the first is that everyone can earn money, division of labor is detailed, full of hope. It's not like everyone wants to do anything right now. Consumers are willing to pay, convenient money, everyone pay, such an era is a state of outbreak.

Before and after the outbreak of the comparison, which was 2012, right this figure is a March data, said that the current industry profit only accounted for 25%, flat 40%, the loss of 34%, in other words not making money accounted for 75%, Three-fourths is not making money, the outbreak of the ideal state I think at least the profit is greater than 60%, Flat 30%, the loss of 10%, such a state I think even if the real outbreak.

What is the cause of the explosion? I think that the U.S. model has encountered China's acclimatized, so we are engaged in the mobile internet industry people have one way to go is to copy the United States to innovate China, to take such a road, this is the first question, about the outbreak point, burst without hair, this is my first point of view.

The second is how to break out, the first is the outbreak of the five conditions, this is my thinking of the problem, the first is to pay the way to be convenient and mature. The second is the operator for hegemony to open warehouse food, operators in China I always think is a very leading force, because users, the network and the charging system are very complete. The third is the giant pillars, or the spring and autumn five tyrants to form. The fourth is that smartphone users are more than functional machines. The fifth is user identity and willing to pay. If these conditions are met, I think it is possible to explode.

The following is suitable for the mainstream income model of China's national conditions, I also think about, now why everyone so difficult, I said the first is a deal with the app model, must be with the transaction, all the app to develop, must be with the transaction. The second is to rely on operators to send money later. Mainstream one is with the application of the current transaction of these apps we all live better, like game equipment trading, E-commerce, business, coupons, O2O are now hot. The second is the operator to send money, the first is the flow of the split, the second is the product lift, telephone calls. Yesterday, when they came from Indonesia, they may have to talk about their business with the Indonesian operators, to send money, details and so on.

Tributary of the income model is now these pieces, I was the first mobile ads, I think the current mobile advertising has not broken out, because mobile advertising is now the snake head eating snake tail, ultimately are eating venture capitalists. The App Store pays for the downloads, I think the elite also can, in China most people basically finish to let the farmer to do the app downloading, basically is the difficulty is very big. After free value added risk is great, is a Big Mac business, not a small app developer game.

When does it break out? This is a matter of concern to all of us, when we can really show the outbreak point, that is, we are more like the SP, the more happy era when can come? I this diagram is the development trend, the front may be the introduction period, start stage, influx period, bubble peak period, bubble subsided period, tamp trough period, The period of steady growth, the long-term and mature development period of such a few stages. Such a curve is like this, from copying American products, now driven by capital, technology-driven, to the developer-driven influx, we are currently in one, I think at the peak point.

And then we'll go into a painful period of torment, is facing the giant hegemony, user growth, mode of innovation, such a kind of mixed state, this state of our gradual bubble subsided, tamping the trough, and then at this trough, the outbreak point is in this point, in the outbreak after we live more moist. But how long is the distance between these two red dots? I think from the 2007 iphone, Android origins to 2011 China detonated, to the current Giants hegemony, follow the blind, pattern evolution.

I'm not particularly good at eating in 2013, but I think the most optimistic estimate will be after spring next year. Is that we live more moist time, so this period I think the most important thing is to live, to find a good model.

Top NET we have been on the road, 10 years, we have to do a few things first is to pay attention to, tracking, inform this change, and then one is to our ten-year accumulation of these resources (network resources, information resources, information resources, business resources) to share to everyone, In addition, the above network of virtual office model and the way to outsource is also very unique, this we are willing to share.

In addition, the team at the top of the quartet to match the style of a matching team, which we think is very valuable, but also unique, willing to contribute to the time before the outbreak.