Trend analysis: Index faces Resistance area

Sheng up 2,600 points, close to the lower end of the platform last July, because the platform as once lured trap, its resistance is not much to say.　　Friday Although the market to Yang Line, but the turnover has shrunk, the volume price deviation shows the main market differences increase. Author: View the sound Court source: Today's investment in the market to accelerate the attack Thursday, both Shanghai and Shenzhen both opened a low, although the stock index is volatile, but the upward trend has not changed. In particular, after midday, the stock index was very weak, after the rally in the surrounding stock market, so that the Shanghai and Shenzhen final plate warmer. In the end, Shanghai was quoted at 2597.45 points, up 4.93 points, up 0.19%.　　Volume slightly enlarged. From this point of view, the pressure of 2,600 is not fictitious.　　Shanghai in Thursday sold 177.7 billion yuan, more than a few trading days to enlarge the 20 billion yuan or so, but in exchange for only 5 points of the small rise, the closing point is still under 2,600 points, a stock is more than a fall, this performance is obviously difficult to let the Bulls satisfied. Thursday panel display, more than 2,600 points are highly valued, morning morning bulls once occupied the upper hand, at 2,600 points above the concussion, but ultimately powerless to attack 2,622 points, forced to retreat below 2,600 points, and the Bulls in the afternoon organized three to 2,600 points of counterattack, have failed to end, The short-term technical balance has begun to favour the empty side.　　This repeated shocks also means that the last decisive battle is coming, the market to make directional choice of the day is not far away, trend traders can still "Shino Houdo". Friday Market Continuation of the adjustment situation in the last day, the cities both low open, concussion adjustment. But in the afternoon in the weight of the LED, the stock index again broke through the 2,600-point integer pass, continue to record new highs. Plate surface, the weight of the collective performance of the group, real estate, banks, brokerages and coal oil and other plates rose before the index to form a larger pull. And the early stage of active subject plate, are more or less adjusted.　　Turnover in the cities has shrunk from the previous session, the Shanghai market from the last session of 177.8 billion to 158.4 billion yuan, the Shenzhen market from 96.4 billion yuan to 85.9 billion yuan. From the plate situation, the broad blue chip is significantly stronger than the small and medium-sized market share. Stock trend of the two cities split more obvious, of which the Shenzhen market rise and Fall home number ratio of 401:346, Shanghai market Rise and fall home number 474:408. In terms of the increase, the Oriental Silver Star, Tong Bao Energy, Sanfangxiang, Chen Electric International, Huasheng Tiancheng, Sichuan Luqiao, Cofco Real estate, deep room A, such as 30 stock trading.　　From the plate style, the real estate sector as a whole rose as high as 4.38, the top of the increase, followed by banks, road bridges, petroleum and petrochemical and other good performance. Technical surface, 5th Ma continued to uplink, short-term still strong, the random index KDJ high correction, relative Strength index RSI also appeared downward, the heart index Psy still high. The stock index still runs between the middle and upper rails of Bollinger bands, and the upward trend is still good. So far this week, the Shenzhen market to accelerate the attack on the situation, the Shenzhen-Shanghai stock index a week rose respectively up toTo 5.98% and 7.16%, volume accompanied by a significant amplification, indicating a higher market sentiment. Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index base on the 5th average support, continuously break through 2,500 points and 2,600 points integer mark, and a succession of refreshing the current round of rising new highs.　　Expected in the loose liquidity, the economic super-expected rebound and the plate hot spot orderly rotation of the impetus, the market strong operating pattern is expected to further extend, but has entered the end stage. The stock index is facing resistance region story-telling market for this year's unpredictable markets, many analysts have stressed the liquidity of the market stimulus, in fact, the speculation is constantly emerging theme is the main market can not stop the key to the hand.　　More money, and "story" can be said, the market is really a bit difficult to rise. But rational investors will point out that, while the worst may be over in macroeconomics, it may still be repeated, and the investment strategy will gradually turn cautious as the index undergoes a major rebound.　　Future institutional investors will continue to adopt a robust and balanced investment strategy, and some will adjust their positions and shift the heavy-warehouse sector towards lower-average valuations, smaller upfront gains, supported valuations and defensive industries.　　Some professionals point out that in this market, the majority of the decision based on short-term, which means that the short-term market may be too far and may overshoot, so when the stock index is higher, the prevention of risk can not be forgotten. The Resistance area appears in fact, Shen Chengzhi in a wave-by-record rebound, close to last July, finishing the platform on the position, the parabolic pressure will gradually appear; Sheng up 2,600 points, but also near the end of last July finishing the platform, because the platform as once trap, its resistance is not much to say.　　Friday Although the market to Yang Line, but the turnover has shrunk, the volume price deviation shows the main market differences increase.　　It is important to note that despite the backdrop of ample liquidity, an upturn in the economy and favorable policies, a short-term surge in market sentiment is likely to push the stock index to the next level, but the potential risks posed by the market's structural differentiation should be given enough attention after the spike. It is noteworthy that from May 10 onwards, the National Bureau of Statistics, the central bank and other institutions will be published in April, the macroeconomic data. The sharp fall in the size of the new credit in April and the CPI and PPI data may have a negative impact on market sentiment, and the continued disclosure of details of the gem may also lead to heightened concerns about the pressure for expansion.　　Therefore, investors need to guard against the potential risks that may be concentrated in the early growth of small and medium-sized market-wide varieties and subject matter varieties. Overall, the recent market hot shift faster, the subject plate adjustment, the weight of the plate to fill up, all reflect this. The big increase in weight shares, in addition to the rise, there is another reason is the market for economic fundamentals of better expectations. But from an economic point of view, it remains to be seen whether a real recovery will take effect. At present, the market hot switching faster, investors need to pay attention to the weight of the leading stocks and hot switching speed。 The Shanghai stock speculation of the theme "story" is still in the strengthening, and turnover is still within the security cordon, so investors in this situation, this point still need to be cautious, operation can continue to homeopathy, but the position of investors should pay attention to control positions;　　It is suggested that investors should pay close attention to the varieties with certain subject matter and little gains. Institutions tend to be cautious as the mainstream of the market, the fund on the future market performance is more pessimistic. The Swiss bank said that, looking ahead, although further recessions in western economies were under initial control, their substantial recovery had to await further stimulus measures; The changes in the size of domestic credit and whether management will introduce market trends, such as when IPOs are restarted, and the new uncertainty about swine flu will largely affect markets. The Yinhua fund points out that influenza viruses are still likely to constitute an important force for suppressing market growth in the short term, requiring close attention.　　Bosera that, longer time, the follow-up policy will be less and more unsustainable credit growth, once the market changes in policy expectations, the possibility of a larger stock market retreat. Focus and market opportunities investors are concerned that this week's central bank's first quarterly monetary policy report of 2009 stated that the future Central bank will continue to unswervingly implement moderately loose monetary policy, maintain policy continuity and stability and promote stable and rapid economic development, in accordance with the unified deployment of the central Committee and the State Council.　　While maintaining the liquidity of the banking system, guiding the financial institutions to increase the credit allocation reasonably, optimizing the credit structure and preventing the potential risks, the quality of credit supporting the economic development should be improved. From the above statement of the central bank, as a support for future market development of important support factors-liquidity will remain relaxed situation.　　At the same time, the two-quarter economic rebound is likely to exceed expectations also for the depth of the market laid a solid foundation for fundamentals. From this week's hot performance, coal, real estate, new energy and power generation equipment, steel and banking sectors, which have benefited from the recovery, have been prominent, with coal and real estate sectors rising 15.16% per cent and 11.66% respectively.　　At the same time, some thematic investment sectors such as venture capital, Hercynian plate and other regional plates also have good performance. As we have mentioned earlier, in the chronological order of the economic recovery, the early-cycle industry, including banks, real estate and construction in the peak season, is expected to play an important role in the next stage, the future performance of investors should be focused on tracking.　　In fact, from this Friday's hot spot performance, the bank, the real estate sector has been a significant handicap performance, the performance has begun to verify the above judgments. One of the positive phenomena that deserves attention is that the real estate sales have seen a noticeable rebound since this year, and the falling speed of the new commercial housing area has slowed down. It is widely believed that if real estate sales can maintain the current recovery, the new start index of commercial housing is likely to appear in the middle of this year, and the downstream housing construction projects have a larger pull.　　Meanwhile, in the near future, the State Council decided to reduce the capital ratios of urban rail transit, coal, airports, ports, coastal and inland navigation, railways, highways, commercial housing, postal services, information industry, potash fertilizer and so on. Overall, reducing the proportion of project capital will help broaden funding sources in the relevant building areas and promote the growth of related investments So as to further stimulate the demand of construction enterprises. In addition, according to the National Development and Reform Commission Investment Research Institute calculates, 4 trillion investment to the construction industry's first pulling effect biggest, causes the construction industry to increase the value to increase 594 billion yuan, occupies the initial pulling total 14.9%. Obviously, the construction industry related sub industries, such as the real estate industry, and the construction of the railway, high-speed rail infrastructure, urban rail transit and other high-quality infrastructure projects are expected to become the focus of the agency, investors can be closely watched in the next phase of the market.