Two times of inventory is a pseudo proposition

Hu Yajun 21st Century: is the business sector experiencing the "two-time inventory" process? When will this process end?　　Will there be a "two-dip" in the real economy?　　Changbaoliang: I think the enterprise "two times to inventory" may be a pseudo proposition. In the fourth quarter of 2008 to the second quarter of 2009, the entity sector experienced a painful process of destocking. From the third quarter of last year, the phase of inventory is over. The second half of last year to this year's one or two quarter of the enterprise inventory is increasing, the current inventory has returned to a higher level, in accordance with this "add inventory" speed, the second half of this year's corporate inventory is basically difficult to increase, and may even be reduced, but not necessarily "two to inventory" problem　　If you go to inventory, it will have a negative effect on the real economy. I don't think the two-time dip will happen.　　But note that economic growth in the US and Europe may slow in the second half of the year, leading to a decline in demand and prices for primary products across the globe, with prices floating in a very narrow range, such as oil, which fluctuates between 70 and 80 dollars, which will further reduce PPI gains in the second half. 21st Century: What will be the growth of China's domestic demand market in the second half? Will investment growth be further reduced?　　To what extent will this affect the second half of China's GDP figures for an investment-driven economic growth model? Changbaoliang: The second half of the consumption of this piece will be more stable, because people, especially the farmers income growth is still improving, social security system is also continuing to improve.　　The big problem is that investment slows down. The current worry is real estate investment, although real estate investment has increased by 33% in July. From this can be speculated that the second half of the investment growth rate will certainly slow down, but the overall growth is relatively high, another investment growth of the positive news is that the second half of the local financing platform after the inventory, the growth rate will be slightly faster.　　I estimate that domestic investment will probably grow by 20% in the three or four quarter of this year.　　In addition, as global demand declines, China's slowdown in import growth will not change much, and the future depends on a global economic recovery next year.　　According to the trend analysis of export, consumption and investment growth, GDP growth rate will slow in the second half of the year, but it is unlikely to be the case that some people expected to decline a more than a percentage point in the first quarter, according to our forecast, the three quarter GDP rose 9.2%, four quarter grew 8.5%. (Trainee reporter Guirue also contributed to this article)