UN experts: World economic recovery faces six major challenges

0 unemployment rise and inflation 0 protectionist rise 0 low price fluctuations 0 financial risks 0 global economic imbalances 0 economic policy risk the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs released the first chapter of the "Global Economic Outlook segment" of the 2010 World Economic Situation and outlook, United Nations Headquarters, New York, December 2 ( The remainder will be released in January 2010).　　Hong Pingfan, Director of the United Nations Global Economic Monitoring Department, who chaired the report, said in an interview with the reporter that the world economy, despite being gradually out of the crisis, faces many difficulties in achieving a sustained recovery in 2010. Hong said that from the national level, the major difficulties facing the world economic recovery in 2010 include the continued downward trend of credit scale in countries, or only a weak growth (only a large increase in China's credit scale). Most financial institutions need to continue to deal with non-performing assets. Domestic demand in many countries is weak, and the momentum from policy support and inventory reduction will weaken.　　In addition, the major developed countries ' fiscal deficits and public debt have risen substantially, resulting in a growing political and economic burden.　　　　When it comes to the challenges facing the world economic recovery, it analyzes some aspects such as the rising unemployment rate, inflation, the rise of trade protectionism, price fluctuation of low prices, financial risk, global economic imbalance and economic policy risk. I. Employment and inflation risks Hong said that the financial crisis and the global recession caused unemployment to rise sharply. Unemployment is high in the major developed countries. Unemployment in the United States has exceeded 10% per cent, the highest level in 26 years, while unemployment in developing countries is largely reflected in export-related industries. In many countries, young people, including fresh graduates, are very difficult to find employment.　　Unemployment will remain high in 2010, as most countries ' economic growth is not yet back to "potential growth" levels. For inflation, the average inflation rate in most countries declined markedly in 2009. Major developed countries and some emerging Asian economies experienced mild deflation.　　Looking ahead to 2010, inflation risks remain limited in spite of increased market inflation expectations in the context of expansionary goods policies and ballooning fiscal deficits, but with global unemployment high, sluggish labour earnings and overcapacity. Second, the risk of trade protectionism the ordinary thought that most developing countries and economies in transition are still highly dependent on international trade in economic growth. International trade flows decreased by 30% to 50% per cent at the end of 2008 and early 2009, owing to a significant decline in import demand in major developed countries and restrictions on trade financing. While the rebound has started in the second quarter of 2009, trade flows in 2009 are still down by more than 10% in 2008.　　World trade is expected to grow by about 5% per cent in 2010, but less evenly than before the crisis. Hong Prosaic said that, of course, some of the trade protection measures adopted by countries have not exceeded the agreed agreement of the World Trade Organization., but it should be brought to the attention.　　In particular, as unemployment worsens, pressure to increase protectionism is still rising within some countries. Iii. low-level product price volatility risk The financial crisis has led to a considerable rebound in oil prices and other low-level products, and has now recovered to around 50%-60% of the top price in 2008 years.　　The rebound in prices for lower-priced products in recent months has a close relationship with the dollar's depreciation over the same period. Hong Ordinary thought, from the supply and demand relationship, oil prices in a barrel of more than 70 dollars to balance the interests of oil exporters and consumer countries.　　　　Looking forward to 2010, only from the supply and demand, the price of lower prices to further increase the space is limited, but including the dollar trend of financial factors will continue to cause these prices of large fluctuations. Iv. financial risks the flood of foreign capital inflows into emerging economies has fallen sharply in the past two years, says Mr Hung. Foreign capital inflows into emerging economies in 2009 were only 25% of the 2007 years before the financial crisis. He predicts that foreign capital inflows into emerging economies in 2010 will continue to rise, but emerging economies still face a lot of financial risk.　　The recent Dubai debt crisis is a manifestation of this risk. He said the dollar has been depreciating against other major currencies since 2002.　　　　Looking ahead to 2010, from the relative fundamentals of the U.S. economy and other major economies, the U.S. economy is no less than Europe and Japan in terms of economic growth, inflation and fiscal deficits, that is, the dollar should no longer depreciate against the euro or the yen, but the dollar has a certain downward pressure on interest rates and external deficits. V. Global economic imbalances risk the global imbalances, the current account imbalances between the major economies, are closely linked to the financial crisis. As the world economy begins to recover, imbalances are likely to expand again. The main reasons are 3: one is that some trade surplus countries are highly dependent on export growth patterns have not been fundamentally changed, and the second is the rapid increase in the U.S. government's fiscal deficit, far more than the increase in household and corporate savings, third, the financial crisis during the U.S. net foreign debt increased significantly.　　The renewed expansion of the US "double deficit" has increased the pressure on the dollar to depreciate, possibly leading to another round of financial turmoil. Vi. risks of economic policy flood ordinary said that since the end of 2008, more than 50 countries have taken major policy measures to deal with the financial crisis.　　But these policies also inevitably have some negative effects: the allocation of risk from the financial sector to the economy as a whole, the sharing of debt from the private sector to the public sector, and the substantial expansion of the assets and liabilities of central banks (developed countries) and the deterioration of the state budget of many countries. He said that the economic policies of the countries of the world in the 2010 will face 3 challenges: one is how to maintain strong policy support to ensure a further recovery of the world economy; Secondly, how to formulate a "policy transition" plan and, once the economic recovery has been consolidated, to withdraw some policy measures to deal with the crisis orderly and smoothly Transition from "expansion" to the dynamics of macroeconomic policyTo the "normal" level; third, how to coordinate international macroeconomic policies to prevent global economic imbalances from expanding as the economy recovers.