University of Hong Kong: Two worries threaten Hong Kong economy growth in the first half of next year

--first half of next year, the second wave of the growth of the tsunami or raid our correspondent Jensi. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Research Centre of the University of Hong Kong yesterday raised our forecast for economic growth this year from a contraction of 5-6% to a contraction of 5% per cent, mainly because the global government print the financial system to help The crisis of endless global economic decline has been averted and Hong Kong's economy has gradually stabilized. Greed Mei? The bank also pointed out yesterday that loose monetary policy was the key to the rebound of the Asian economy, and the economic growth rate of Asia outside Japan would exceed the expected 3.8% and 6.6%, respectively, to 4.2% and 6.9 in this year and next. 　　%。 　　Richard, a professor of economics at HKU, points out that in comparison with the 7.8% per cent plunge in the first quarter, the rate of decline in Hong Kong's economy is expected to slow in the second and third quarters as a result of the rebound in stock and private property prices and the increase in export orders, with a narrower decline reflecting economic stability. 　　SIU, director of the Hong Kong-Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Research Centre, said that unless the external economy was truly stabilized, the economy would continue to find a bottom and the economy would shrink by 5% in the fourth quarter, but he was confident that the economy would be expected to return to growth in the first half of next year. Shao inspiration: Annual economic contraction of 5% Moreover, SIU that there is no possibility of a second wave of shocks to our economy. 　　He pointed out that the rise of insolvency in commercial buildings and the worsening of bad credit card debt in the United States and the formation of a second batch of non-performing assets in the European and American banking system, while the second half of the mainland or the tightening of monetary conditions would affect Hong Kong, the opportunity for a financial tsunami to hit our economy still Another concern of our economy is the increasing deflationary pressure. Siu said Hong Kong was entering a "deflationary era" and that the inflation rate was expected to slow down from 1.7% in the 1th quarter of 09 to 0.1% and 0% in the 2nd and 3rd quarters respectively. Hang Seng Bank (0011) The latest issue of "The pulse of Hong Kong economy" also points out that Hong Kong's economy is entering a "0 inflation". 　　The report said that before the economy could be fully revitalized, the world's central bank's extremely loose monetary policy, and the government's aggressive bailout measures to stimulate economic growth more than lead to inflation, Hong Kong also, the local inflation rate will linger at near 0 levels for some time. The job market is set to remain sluggish this year, with unemployment expected to rise to 5.9% this season and a 6.2% per cent unemployment rate by year-end. However, the Hang Seng Bank has lowered its forecast target for the average unemployment rate in Hong Kong this year. 　　The bank is of the view that the unemployment rate has risen less than expected as a result of the fact that many companies in Hong Kong have opted to take unpaid leave instead of layoffs, so this year the unemployment rate has been lowered from the original forecast of 6.6% to 6.1%. Hong Kong's economic forecast at a glance