US economic downturn likely to last 5 years

Beijing time May 19 Evening News, according to foreign media reports, 2008 Nobel laureate in Economics, Paul Krugman, said in Tuesday, the U.S. economy may emerge from the recession as early as this summer, but a further rise in unemployment means the "economic downturn" will likely continue for the longest 5 years.　　Speaking at the Global Finance conference in Seoul, South Korea, Mr Krugman said the U.S. or global industrial output would likely hit bottom in the next few months, with U.S. GDP growth expected to turn positive in the second half of the year, perhaps slightly later than in Europe. He said he would not be surprised if the US recession, which began in December 2007, ended in August or September.　　But the rise in unemployment is likely to continue into 2011, meaning that the "economic downturn" may last until 2013 or 2014 years. The U.S. economy grew at an annualised rate of minus 6.1% in the first quarter, less than expected. U.S. consumers have increased purchases of cars, furniture and household appliances, but companies continue to cut spending, the biggest drop in 40 years.　　The US unemployment rate hit 8.9% in April, and many economists expect the jobless rate to reach 10% by the end of the year. While economic indicators around the world are improving, it simply means that the pace of economic slowdown is slowing, Krugman said.　　Financial markets are also stabilising, he said. "I agree with the optimistic view that the worst of the economic crisis may be over, but it is now hard to say when the economy will shift from a stable to a real recovery," Krugman said. "(Building)