US physicists say Moore's Law of key theory is about to collapse

Beijing time May 3 morning news, according to the U.S. It website Computerworld reported that a well-known theoretical physicist said that the computer industry's key theory "Moore's Law" (Moore Laws) is about to collapse.

Kaku Michio Kaku, a professor of theoretical physics at the City University of New York, said in a video interview with the Bigthink.com website that the law, which lasted for 47 years, had little time, and could have an impact on the evolution of computer processors.

Kaku said in a video interview that scientists should be able to continue to tap the potential of silicon components in order to maintain the vitality of Moore's law in the next few years, but the 3D chip and other technologies have exhausted potential, then it will reach the limit.

"In about 10 years, we will see the collapse of Moore's law," he said. Added the DAO Xiong said. "In fact, we've seen Moore's law slowing down, and computing power has been unable to use standard silicon technology to sustain its rapid exponential growth." "Like many previous scientists, Kaku recently said that two major problems will derail Moore's law, namely high temperatures and leaks." "That's why the silicon era will eventually end," he said. "he said.

Gordon Moore, the co-founder of Intel (Moore), introduced the theory of Moore's Law in 1965. According to this theory, the number of transistors on the chip will increase by one times in about every two years, and do not have to pay a high cost.

Compared with the initial expected time that Moore's law will end, Kaku's expectations have been delayed for a long time. For years, many economists and industry analysts have been predicting that Moore's law will die; for years, researchers have been pushing the technology forward, improving the structure and components of the chip, and making the law alive now.

In the fall of 2008, for example, researchers at McGill University in Montreal reported that they had discovered a new state of matter that would greatly prolong the duration of Moore's law. Using temperatures 100 times times lower than interstellar space, the researchers found a quasi-3D electron crystal that makes it possible to use quantum physics to make smaller computer chips.

Prolong life

Last winter, the science team from McGill University and the National Laboratory of Sandy countries in the United States reported that they had created the smallest electronic integrated circuit, paving the way for smaller, more powerful mobile devices. Industry analysts quickly pointed out that the discovery would prolong the life of Moore's law.

Patrick Moorhead, Moor Strategies & Insight analyst at IT research firm, said: "Every rumor of the past 20 years that Moore's law is going to die has very good data support, But the technology industry has somehow found a way to keep going. However, the cost of continuing to move forward is indeed becoming more expensive and more difficult to achieve when chip design and manufacturing reach the molecular level. ”

But scientists are working to keep the pace of evolution predicted by Moore, one of which is photovoltaic, which means that data travels through light rather than copper wires. In addition, 3D components and GPU hybrid systems are also one of the research directions. Scientists are also looking beyond silicon technology, focusing on quantum computing and molecular computers. Kaku that molecular computers are promising, but quantum computing has a "huge problem" that will be truly ripe by the turn of the 21st century.

Will eventually die.

"Researchers have been exploring the question of how to design and develop new materials in an attempt to bring higher performance at reasonable cost," said Dan Olds, analyst at the Gabriel Consulting group. We see that this progress has penetrated every corner of the market. The intel® Tri-gate transistor (tri-gate transistor) is a good example of increasing the contact area of the transistor and improving performance by 30% in the case of reduced power consumption. ”

Intel has released three gate transistors in its latest Ivy Bridge chip, which it launched last month.

Charles King, analyst at Pund, an industry analyst, said Moore's law could evolve as usual, but he was not worried about how it would affect the evolution of the computer industry. "You can argue that this concept is in conflict with the difficult obstacles in physics," he said. In the end, a large number of laws that basically reflect the times and places of their own will inevitably become illogical over time. ”