U.S. stocks staged Ebola "fright" concept plate is now a pulse-type hype

Since the end of September, the United States found the first Ebola virus infection, the panic quickly transmitted to the U.S. capital market, with the infection of the disease and the evolution of the number of infected people, the stock market related stocks have set off a climax, followed by a different degree of decline, staged a pulse-type speculation market. A new stir-fry has emerged, with protective clothing manufacturers, pharmaceutical companies, and even tobacco companies, a common name for this particular period of seemingly unrelated stocks: the Ebola concept unit. Through the process of carding the spread of the virus and the capital market hype stage, the entire hype road map has been leap.

Since October, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S & P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite index have been sharply recalled from the September highs, despite the large market index, which has been hampered by a slowdown in global economic growth, the Fed's expectations of interest rate hikes, and individual industry quarterly alerts. However, the Reclain medical Industry (Nasdaq:lake, hereinafter referred to as Reclain), Alphaprotechltd (AMEX:APT, hereinafter referred to as Alpha) and other related concepts, such as Ebola, but the city of the hurricane, October to date (As of October 17) The cumulative rise of 13 trading days reached an astonishing 144% and 71%.

First confirmed: The concept of the next day to fully start

US local time September 30, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced that the first case of Ebola was discovered in the United States. The patient's name is Thomas Eric Duncan, 42 years old, male, from the West African State of Liberia.

According to the U.S. CDC director Frieden said the patient on September 19 from Liberia boarded the plane to return to the United States and arrived in the United States 20th local time, the patient did not have any symptoms of infection, but four or five days after the symptoms, 26th first to the hospital did not be timely diagnosis of illness, 28th illness deteriorated into a hospital in Texas State and was quarantined, 30th, the United States CDC and Texas State medical institutions confirmed the patient infected with Ebola virus.

The CDC has sent a team of experts to Texas State to help the local medical department track patients who have been in contact with them since they set foot on the United States and were admitted to the disease.

However, Frieden said, as long as not direct contact with patients, the risk of infection with Ebola is not high, "the Ebola virus only with patients direct contact to spread, but only through the body fluid transmission." ”

Reporters noted that the first in the United States, the first Ebola patients confirmed the next day, the Dow, S & P 500, the three major stock indexes declined more than 1%, while the concept of protection Reclain rose 29.64%, Alpha Rose 10.46%, pharmaceutical companies Tekmira (NASDAQ:TKMR) Rose 18.21% , Chimerix (NASDAQ:CMRX) rose 5.32%, the new gene (Nasdaq:nlnk) rose 7.14%, BioCryst Medicine (NASDAQ:BCRX) rose 3.78%, Hemispherxbiopharmainc (Amex:heb, hereinafter referred to as Hemispherx) rose 15.14%.

It was found that the stocks were broadly classified as protective, pharmaceutical companies that had been approved for the treatment of Ebola virus and were developing related drugs.

Reclain is the U.S. stock protection company leading, mainly manufacturing medical isolation clothing, infection masks and other products, the company developed CHEMMAX1 protective Clothing has become the first choice for health care personnel protection. Another popular unit alpha is the protective clothing and mask manufacturer.

In drug treatment, after Duncan was diagnosed as the first American Ebola patient, he began to undergo the treatment of experimental drug brincidofovir, which was developed by biotech company Chimerix, which also stimulated Chimerix's shares to rise, the reporter noted, Chimerix's share price rose 20.3% per cent in the 5 trading days before Duncan was admitted to hospital until the news of his death was announced.

Another drug called Tkm-ebola, a gene used to fight Ebola infection, was developed by the Canadian Tekmira biopharmaceutical company (NASDAQ:TKMR) in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Defense, The company, licensed by the FDA's Ebola drug experiment, has now entered a clinical trial.

First death: Panic and Heat Protection Unit

With the October 6 official announcement of Duncan's illness deteriorated, the situation from "serious" to "critical", after a trading day rose to 7.72% Sarepta Therapeutics (NASDAQ:SRPT), a slump, The decline lasted until October 13 (the second infection appeared), with a cumulative decline of 21.2% per cent. The company, which is working to develop drugs against Ebola and other diseases, has received more than 200 million dollars in research and development in 2010, and is now trying to persuade officials to try its drug AVI-7537 against Ebola.

On the morning of October 8, the first patient confirmed to be infected with Ebola in the United States was shocked by the death of Duncan. The dozens of family members and friends with whom he had contact were closely monitored.

The source said that in order to further prevent the Ebola virus spread in the United States, all U.S. airports will be from West African countries to carry out the temperature test passengers.

Duncan's death caused by the panic directly mapped in the two-tier market, Duncan died on the day of the release, used to treat the disease of the brincidofovir drug manufacturers Chimerix shares fell, turnover reached twice times the previous session. As the drug effect was questioned, October 8 to October 14, Chimerix (NASDAQ:CMRX) cumulative decline of 17.59%, this situation until October 15 officially announced the third case of infected people, only to be broken.

Ebola virus lethal caused by the market for the protection of the concept of the plate, the leading stock Reclain October 8 ~10 13th four trading days, 15.85%, 52.5%, 10.78%, 47.73%, corresponding to the trading day, the other protection stocks Alpha Rose 8.29% , 27.7%, 53.51% and 35.26%.

Local communication: Concept stocks "ups and downs"

The CDC announced October 12 that a paramedic who had contact with the first Ebola patient found in the United States had been diagnosed with the Ebola virus. It was the first Ebola infection in the United States and the second case detected in the United States.

According to Texas State Health department officials, the paramedics wore protective equipment for the treatment of Duncan: masks, gloves and protective clothing. The paramedic was in close, frequent contact with the 11-day treatment Duncan received. But Frieden, director of the CDC, said the infection may have been in the process of giving Duncan kidney dialysis, taking off ventilator equipment or taking off personal protective equipment.

The news underscores the brutal fact of Ebola: the disease is very contagious.

The second case confirmed news of the first trading day, protection stocks Reclain soaring 47.73%, pharmaceutical companies Tekmira up 3.9%. The gene Rose 23.66%, a biopharmaceutical company that specializes in the development and marketing of biological small molecular immunotherapy products that are widely used to treat cancer. Previously, the new gene company was mandated to produce a Canadian Ebola vaccine Vsv-ebov. Blaine Wai, vice president of the company, said the company had been assisted by the U.S. government to produce the Vsv-ebov vaccine at the fastest pace.

Chimerix, the producer who treated the first case of Duncan's drug, continued to fall 0.9%. In addition, Hemispherx Rose 11.31%, the company employs only 34 people (as of the end of December 2013), the stock price of less than 1 U.S. dollars, although the stock price adjustment has been constant, but under the impact of the Ebola concept, every time the panic is high, there is always a rise of more than 10%.

However, just before the third infected person was released on a trading day (October 14), Reclain and Alpha plunged 26.1% and 26.77% respectively as the market panic calmed down slightly.

Now the third example: the stock gains narrowed and now callback

October 15, the United States CDC confirmed that another female health care workers were checked out Ebola virus.

The latest patient was a 29-year-old female nurse, Amber Wensen, and Nina Fan, a female nurse who contracted the Ebola virus in the United States, and nursed Duncan, the first Ebola patient found in the United States.

Amber Wensen had a fever on 14th and was immediately quarantined. The AP medical records showed Vincent was responsible for pumping Duncan's blood and cleaning up bodily fluids. October 10, two days after Duncan's death, Vincent traveled to Cleveland, Ohio. 13th, Vincent returned to Dallas by plane.

The public health threat posed by the flight of people infected with Ebola is serious. CDC local time 16th decided to expand the scope of the search, the patient on the flight to all other passengers into the watch list.

In addition to the two nurses who have confirmed the infection with Ebola, 74 medical staff have been exposed to Duncan or his blood and are being quarantined. In the current situation, health care workers who have direct contact with Ebola patients are among the most at risk.

The National Nurses union said in a statement that the hospital's safety clothing provided to paramedics failed to cover the neck, forcing nurses to wear tape around their necks. In addition, the hospital does not pay attention to the provision of more protection to health care workers, and the laboratory samples in the delivery process has not been specially sealed treatment.

October 15, the protection unit Reclain and Alpha continued to rise, one-day increase of 10.13%, 13.72%, compared to the earlier times more than 15% of the increase has been significantly narrowed, and in the last two days, Reclain share prices fell back, in Thursday and Friday respectively, the share price down 12.33% and 17.93 %,alpha declined even more, by 18.4% and 18.74%.

A similar trend has been shown in drug-fighting groups that fight the virus. The third case of infection was announced on the day, the Ebola treatment drug manufacturer Chimerix rose 10.77%, the new gene Rose 16.54%, the next day Chimerix and the new gene continued to increase the volume of 10.01% and 25.28%, but in Friday (October 17), The vast majority of the early performance of the ferocious Ebola concept stock appeared a correction, Chimerix fell 3.53%, the new gene fell 7.91%.

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The law of epidemic speculation: the degree of panic determines the concept stocks rise and fall

Every journalist Sun Yuting

One of the world's deadliest viruses, Ebola, has claimed thousands of lives in the West African region and has had a substantial impact on the local economy, with the development of the aviation and communications industry in recent years, and the speed and breadth of the spread of such viruses has a potential risk of further proliferation. As the United States, Spain and other countries have found cases of infection, and Paris, France recently found suspected cases, making the deadly virus out of Africa, causing a global concern.

The daily economic news reporter by combing the epidemic when the response to the capital market found that every time the market panic reached the climax, the related stocks tend to rise, conversely, when the panic gradually decline, the stock price quickly into a callback.

Similar to the avian flu epidemic hype

Investors may not be unfamiliar with the avian flu that began in 2003. Since May 2005, there has been a wave of widespread outbreaks of avian influenza at home and abroad, which has lasted nearly a year.

"Daily economic news," the historical data found that in the gradual evolution of the avian flu epidemic, the U.S. stock market also has a similar market, such as protective stocks leading Reclain in the history of another wave of big market in the early stage of the outbreak of avian influenza.

The World Health Organization briefing reported the outbreak of human cases of avian influenza for the first time in January 2004, after which 97 cases and 53 deaths were reported in Viet Nam, Thailand and Cambodia. Of these, Viet Nam has 76 cases and 37 deaths, the worst affected countries, followed by Thailand, 17 cases and 12 deaths, while in Cambodia 4 cases and 4 deaths.

The all-time highs of Reclain's share price appeared on April 27, 2004, when the outbreak of avian flu in Asia sparked panic in the market, prompting a rush of money into the professional protective clothing manufacturer.

There is also a company in the field of biotechnology that is famous for its fight against the avian flu virus. The company, known as Nasdaq:gild Technology, is based in the state of California, where it has developed a new antiviral drug called Duffy, which is said to be the only effective oral drug against the deadly virus. Although the drug can not cure avian influenza, but if taken in the early onset, can inhibit the aggravation of the disease.

In 2003, the year before people began to worry about the outbreak of avian flu, the company was still losing money. But since then, Tamiflu's sales have exploded, and revenues have soared, making the company a profit, and stock prices rose markedly during this period.

Other manufacturers of viral vaccines, such as the real-NASDAQ:GNBT Biotech, Vical Inc. and Nova Nasdaq:vicl (Nasdaq:nvax), have risen sharply, while antiviral manufacturers Hemispherx bio-Pharmaceuticals Division (Amex:heb) and BioCryst Medicine (NASDAQ:BCRX) share prices also increased markedly. Among them, Hemispherx previously announced that its candidate avian influenza drug Ampligen and Alferon test data are satisfactory.

Market hype follows Panic

If the current market speculation of the Ebola concept and the past avian influenza epidemic hit when the performance of the capital market together, you can find that the two-tier market in the relevant stock hype is actually some common.

Most obviously, every time when the disease worsens death or a case of proliferation of signs, is related to the peak period of speculation, the sudden panic mood often led to defensive stocks such as protective clothing manufacturers and viral drug manufacturers share prices rose, if not in the short term reversal of events, the market can often continue 3~ 4 trading days, until the market panic, or attracted by other hot events, stocks immediately a callback, and usually a large margin.

When the drug used to fight the virus is proved ineffective, the stocks involved will plummet and even spit out all the gains from earlier outbreaks. But when the market found that there is no other drugs available, the related stocks will appear a micro-increase. Conversely, when the enterprise research and development of drugs have been proved to effectively inhibit the deterioration of the disease, the corresponding share prices will soar, and related pharmaceutical stocks will record a different degree of increase.

In addition to the foregoing, stock prices will rise significantly in the first case, when the company's relevant drugs are officially approved for production, or when companies announce that they are starting to develop drug-related areas.

In addition, the performance of the stock is closely related to the investment of its production products. In the U.S. stock market, for example, a tobacco company called Nyse:rai is also the Ebola concept unit, although tobacco and viruses seem to have nothing to do with the name, but the company's raw material from tobacco is seen as the best drug to treat Ebola.

The drug ZMapp was produced by the Mapp biopharmaceutical company, a small American company, and the company's drug ZMapp was used to treat 7 Ebola virus infections during the Ebola outbreak in West Africa. Researchers have recently discovered that it can completely protect monkeys against Ebola infection.

But the production of the drug relies on Renault tobacco. Because Renault has the facilities to extract the raw materials from tobacco ZMapp. The production of ZMapp requires that tobacco be infected with modified antibodies, and then the tobacco will grow for about a week before it can produce enough raw materials. The next step is to purify the material, which is extremely slow, even if it takes 2-3 months to produce a small amount of production.

But the CDC announced that its few available doses were used in August for 7 patients, including 4 Western medical workers infected in West Africa, and are now in a state of disconnection.

Renault's share price rose early this year as it was being used to treat the Ebola epidemic in West Africa, which lasted until mid-July, when it hit a record high of $63 trillion. Because the product production cycle is longer, the stock is in a short state, can not put into the terminal market, so the recent stock price although the rise, but far less than the first half of the range.