Use big data to predict movie box office?

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The Mainland movie box office in the first quarter of 2014 only 82 days in excess of 2009 total, triggering a year can break through the 30 billion Yuan Mark box office conjecture; The concept of film public-chip "in the realization of the dream of ordinary people film investors, but also the big data features of the single box office prediction problem in front of each investor."

box office forecasts will be a new profit point

Data show that the Chinese mainland in the first quarter of this year, the box office amounted to 6.723 billion yuan, an increase of 30%, 325 new Cinemas, the new screen with an average of 18 per day growth rate, the national cumulative screen has reached 20007.

"Such a large, fast-growing market is destined to attract more capital to the industrial chain," he said. "In addition to the traditional sense of investment in production, distribution, hospital line, film City and other links, the box office forecast has gradually become a new profit point," said Song Li, general manager of Fuzhou Sino-Swiss International film City. ”

Lingui, head of film and television management and industry at the Fujian Provincial Radio, film and TV bureau, said the film authorities had a rough forecast of the box office every year. "Mainly according to the film-funded data platform for the box office statistics, combined with the past period of view, regional theater operating differences, Pai pian, screen new number of factors, the single quarter and the annual box office has a general estimate." Lingui said, "but this kind of forecast is not specialized refinement, also has not to the single piece box office forecast, also manifests does not have the commercial value." ”

The United States has a professional web site that relies on data analysis to predict a single piece of box-office sales: The nmubers.com, the UK's Epagogix company, builds a model for box office evaluations through the script's semantic analysis.

Du Xiaomeng, a public relations manager at Art Consulting, said that China's film market environment is not rich in data, but Weibo, search, electricity and other data has reached a certain scale. "We need to have enough knowledge of the film industry, based on this mathematical model, to accurately predict the box office." ”

Can be used in the film and television industry chain in all aspects

So how is the data being developed to predict the box-office?

As you can see on the nmubers.com Web site, the agency will be able to data factors in the film industry, such as production companies, shadow appeal, filming budget, promotional costs, film type, CD-ROM sales, film quality keywords, the way to produce, distribution strategy, film grading, innovation index, etc. The formation of a huge database and analysis system.

Compared with foreign countries, the domestic box office forecast mainly examines the film's marketing performance, quality content performance two factors.

Chen Showen, deputy general manager of Fujian Zhongxing Cinema Line Company, believes that box office forecasts can help investors accurately judge the rate of return, reduce blind investment and provide decision-making advice to film investors. "As with any commercial project assessment, the box office forecast will be an important part of the evaluation of the film investment project." Not only the problem of not casting, more can solve the problem of how much to cast, how to vote. ”

"If there is a mechanism to accurately predict the box office, and to put forward the layout of the theater to adjust the plan, the theater can be more focused on improving service quality, improve customer experience and so on." "Fuzhou Jin Yi Film City with the city general manager Fan Xiaoyan said."

Analysis of the Industry, box office forecasts can be in the film and television industry chain in almost all aspects of a certain role. For example, the tempo of the script controls and lines, the selection of the cast, the value of star benefit, the use of special effects, the distribution marketing strategy and the cost control, and the effect evaluation of the implanted advertisement.

Also need to continuously improve and improve

The accurate forecast monolithic box office to the entire movie industry appears increasingly important, the constant approximation reality becomes the big Data technology application ultimate goal.

Art Consulting company analysts believe that in-depth film and television industry, digging out the real factors affecting the box office and enough data accumulation is critical to accurately predict the box office. The scale of Chinese film market is expanding continuously, but the volume is not stable, the related data is lack, the quantization module is not scientific enough, and the basic ability of data forecast needs to be improved.

Du Xiaomeng explained that the film industry does not like the financial, telecommunications industry has a natural data acquisition advantages, structured data generation can be analyzed. box office forecasts are an analysis of more complex market behavior, not as intuitive as the "guess you Like" recommended by online shopping.

Perennial engaged in business data analysis and excavation of the Network Dragon Network Co., Ltd. Senior researcher Chang introduced, from a technical point of view, accurate prediction of the box office is the most important to know the industry's analyst team. "The factors that affect the box office are quantified and the model needs algorithm engineering, the different algorithms will lead to different prediction results, the approximation of the real needs scientific data iterations, thus improving the prediction model." ”

In addition, the Accurate forecast box office also needs to increase the film and television industry information dissemination intensity and the crackdown steals the box-office strength. The accurate data source is the premise of forecast, and the relevant information of China's film and television industry is still not transparent enough. Lingui said, "In addition, a number of small and medium-sized cities in the film city is still the theft of the box office, last year, the total volume of the national box-office shrinkage of about 10%, for the box office forecast, this ' error ' has been considerable. ”