Using 3 inferences to analyze what the Internet will be like in 5,000 days

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Internet, also known as the network, we call the network, its history is less than 5,000 days. Everything that happens during this period, such as the satellite images of the entire Earth, is something you never imagined before, the things that break into our lives, the colorful things that are in front of us, on laptops or desktops. It is surprising that such things, like the cornucopia, will never dry up, but we do not seem to be surprised. It's really amazing that everything is here. (laughter) In just 5,000 days, everything appears. If I had told you 10 years ago that these things were going to come, you would have said that it was impossible. The reason is simple, there is no economic model to support its existence. If I say it again, it will be free. You will answer, you are dreaming. You're a Californian visionary. You are a fanatic optimist. However, it has appeared before us.

The other thing we know is that 10 years ago I saw Wired magazine and said, "We think the next one will be TV, but it will be better." It's already a model, so everyone thinks it's coming. The result, however, is not what everyone imagines. First, it is impossible; second, it hasn't happened before. I think one of the lessons that we've learned is to imagine Wikipedia as an ' impossible ' example--not theoretically, but actually doable. If you can accept these impossible, one of the things we've learned from this century, over the last 10 years, is that we'd better accept the impossible because we're not ready yet.

So I am curious about the next 5,000 days. Look at what happened in the last 5,000 days, what will happen in the next 5,000 days? I have a simple report that suggests that we should think about what we will create and what will happen in the next 5,000 days. All computers, handheld devices, mobile phones, laptops, servers, etc. Simply put, all connections will form a machine. The only machine, our handheld, is just a little window. We are building a machine that covers the world.

I realized that this machine was the most reliable machine ever created in human history. It never goes down, it never stops, it lasts longer than the number of working hours and days that we've made. 5,000 days of uninterrupted operation, it's unbelievable. Of course the history of the internet for more than 5,000 days, I mean the web but 5,000 days of history so I tried to measure this machine, it is how much I began to calculate the world's computers, a total of several mouse clicks. The result is 1 days and 100 billion clicks. There are 55 trillion connections between Web pages worldwide.

So I realized that it was another scale. I made a list, said photographer Chris, that when the numbers were too big, they lost their meaning. This is the list, not very good to read. If the network, all the chips on all computers are counted, there are 1 billion computer chips on the network. 2 million emails per second. This is a huge number. It is a great machine. It also uses 5% of the Earth's electricity. This is its details. If drawn into a specification sheet, it has 170,000 trillion transistors, 55 trillion connections, e-mail to 2 million khz per second transmission, SMS has 31,000 khz per second transmission, with 246hexabutes (10 18) storage space. This is a very large disc. There is a lot of storage space, memory is 9 hexabytes. Its traffic is 7 megabits per second (TB). Brewster has mentioned that the Library of Congress has about 20 megabytes (TB) of data. In other words, there is half a library of Congress every second of the information in this machine turnover, this is a huge machine.

I also found that 1 days 100 billion mouse clicks and 5.5 trillion connections are almost the number of synapses in the brain. 1000 trillion transistors, almost equivalent to the number of nerves in the brain. The machine generates 20,000 MHz of synaptic excitation per second. Taken for granted, memory space is quite large. The size and complexity of the machine can be said to be equivalent to the human brain, judging from the data just now. Because the human brain operates in much the same way as the web does, the brain does not grow exponentially every 2 years. Suppose we make this machine now equals 1 human brains. At its rate of growth, 30 years later, it will be equal to 6 billion human brains. In other words, by the year 2040, the machine will be able to handle raw materials more than humans.

I think that's what Ray Kurzweil and some other people want to use on the charts. So what does that mean? I want to talk about a few things here. I think it's 3 points, I'd say 3 inferences. First, the machine is being manifested in the next 5,000 days, and we will give this machine an entity. Second, we will reorganize its structure. Third, we are going to live with it completely.

Let me explain one by one. First, we hold a lot of things in our hands, and we think they're independent, but in fact, all the screens in the world go into this machine query. Basically, these screens are portals. Second, what people call cloud computing. To touch the cloud network, only need a cloud computer (CloudBook), there is no storage space, always keep the wireless link structure is very simple. Basically, if you touch this machine, the cloud network can do the math, and the machine will calculate.

It's kind of like going back to the old Central computer concept. And everything, all cameras, microphones, car sensors, and so on, are connected to this machine. Everything goes through the web. We've been using mobile phones to connect to the Web, and now they're not even on the internet, but they're going to go through the network. You can imagine. Take Google Labs (Google Lab) For example, Google files, Google calculators, and so on, these things are built on top of the network. They all go through the machine. I think every bit will belong to the network. This is not the case, if you work in a table, Word documents and so on, they are not currently, but will be on the site. They will be part of the machine. They use the language of the Web site. They will talk to the machine. The web is like a black hole, sucking everything in. Everything becomes part of the network. Everything we make in the future is embedded in a small network connector, and everything will become part of the machine. The machine will operate all the times, our surroundings become networks, and everything is connected to each other.

By that time, we would use radio frequency identification (RFID), but there was no harm in the technology. The point is that everything will be built into the machine, so we basically have the physical Internet. You can think that the shoe is a chip with a heel; the car is a wafer with wheels. Most of the cost of a car will come from its built-in wisdom and electronic devices, not raw materials. Many people think that the new economic structure will be divorced from reality, another virtual existence, the past economic structure is atomic. But in fact, the new economic structure should be the combination of these two, we put information and digital format of things into the physical world. That's what we're looking for. This is what we are going to do, a transformation that binds an atom and a digit.

So I believe the conclusion will be that the existing media, television, movies, videos and so on will be transformed into a platform. No matter how much difference they make, they will have more and more in common in some way. So some of the media laws seem to be: "Copying has no value", "values come from things that cannot be duplicated, such as immediacy, authentication, personalization," the media wants to circulate ", and they are" free "to allow you to use it freely, not" free "use, but" free "use. and the "network effect rule" means that the more people use it, the higher the value. For example, is the first fax machine, the man who bought the first fax machine, an idiot? Because no one else can receive the fax! So he/she becomes a disseminator and calls on others to buy a fax machine because it makes the fax machine more valuable. These are the influences that we are going to see. "Attention is money."

These laws will be spread across all media. Another thing about manifesting is that, like we said, Mike Xu Han transforms (McLuhan reversal). Machines, he says, are an extension of the human senses (consciousness). But I say, in a way, humans will become the extension senses of the machine. So with all the digital photos and cameras, we have 10 million pairs of eyes, ears and touch. Just like Flickr or Photosynth, a Microsoft-produced program can take thousands of photos of tourists, collage (and restore) into the sights. In a way, the machine is looking at every pixel behind each camera.

Secondly, I would like to talk about the concept of redevelopment and the network is being rebuilt. Let me just say that next I want to define the Semantic Web (semantic).

In the first phase, we used to see the internet as connecting computers. That's what we call the network, which is "Internet of net" (linking up the web). If you remember the computer at that time, the screen is all green words and cursors, can not do too much, if you want to connect, you need to link from a computer to another computer if you want to participate, you need to share a packet of information. Then you need to pass the past, you can't control what, unlike the telephone system, you can control the other end of the phone, you just share the packet.

The second stage, the current concept of connecting Web pages. In the past, if I wanted to go to the airline's homepage, I would have to connect to the FTP station from my computer and connect to the airline's computer. Now we have the page, the unit becomes the page from one page to another page. If I want to make a reservation, I connect to the flight page, the airline website, and we share the connection. You have to open the connection. You can't refuse to connect with someone, you can't stop it, you have to get involved in the concept of opening your page so anyone can connect. That's what we're doing now.

Now we're going into phase three where we connect the data. I do not know the name of this thing, first call it "the same machine", we began to link the data. From machine to link to Web page, now is the data connection data. The difference is that instead of connecting to a page, we're connecting one concept to another, rather than another. So basically, every concept or every project or every noun is supported by the entire network. It has been able to parse the degree of the project, or the concept, or the word, which, in addition to coming out of the concept, is no longer just virtual but actually connected to the object. It parses down to a person's information all the time, and each person has a unique ID. Each object has a clear identity and is connected to its specific logo. So at this stage, I can connect to a particular flight, a specific seating, for example, I live in Pacifica, now Pacifica It's just a name on the web. The internet doesn't know it's a city, and it's where I live. But that's what we're about to mention. It will be directly connected and the network will be able to interpret it by itself. It'll know it's a place name. As long as you see Pacifica, it will know that this is a place, but also know the dimensions, precision, population and other information.

There are several technical terms, all composed of 3 letters. You should have seen more. These things are related to the concept of implementing the "Data Connection". I want to cite an example where there are 1 billion social networking sites on the web. Every time you enter a will write your information again, you are a so-and-so, your friends who who who. Why would you do that? It should know all your friends. This is what you want, all your friends can identify, and you can take your relationships with you. All information about you should be transmitted, you just have to do it once, that's all. You should have the network of relationships between these data. The relationship between these data networks. This is our next step, and the network needs to be able to understand this level. Semantic Web (Semantic Web), Web 3.0, Giant Global Graph We're still thinking about what to call it. It is mainly about sharing information. So you have to open up your information, compared to the sharing of Web pages or computers, is a big step for mankind. The things above are not just Web pages but objects. All the things we talk about, all the products, all the places will be a certain amount of representation, there will be a specific character to let us connect directly, we will have a "goods database." In fact, there is a fourth stage that we have not yet arrived at, even in the next 5,000 days or the next 10 years. But I think we will eventually go to the stage of interconnection of things. I can relate it directly to the same exact east as the plane seat. Such practical things will become part of the network. So, we are in a "fully connected" world where each object is connected inline.

The last concept is interdependence. It's always there, the nearer the better. If you authorize Google, it can give you your search record. I looked at the search records and found that I had a lot of things checked at 11 this morning. Originally I was open, I was transparent. I want to be completely personal in this world and need you to be totally transparent. That will pay the price. If you want to be completely personalized, you will need to be completely transparent, if you forget your phone number, I can check Google. How much we rely on it, that at that time I no longer need to remember anything. I just need to check Google. Much simpler. We might resent it and say, "that sucks." But think about it, we don't also rely on letters and writing? We rely entirely on them, and this is just a transformation. We can't imagine days without letters and writing. Again, we can't imagine not having this machine. It is developing an artificial intelligence that is not an artificial wisdom with personal consciousness. This is what Larry Peggy (one of Google's founders) told me is the direction they're working on. This is the direction they are working on. But when 6 billion people are searching at the same time, who is looking for whom? is two-way. Meaning, we are the network. That's the truth. We will be the machine. So, in the next 5,000 days, it's not going to be the web, it's going to be something better. It's like TV is better than TV. In the next 5,000 days, it will not be a network but a better thing, it would be a different thing. I think it will be smarter and it will have wisdom. Not the artificial wisdom of personal consciousness, but the ability to predict our behavior within a reasonable range. Second, it will be more humane. It will know us, and that is a good thing. But the price is that we have to be transparent. Third, it will be more omnipresent, full of the surrounding, we are in it. The device on our hands will be the entrance into it.

One of the things I want to give you is that we have to start to understand that it's not the web, but something better. A whole new phase and development, more globalization It is a great machine, very reliable, more reliable than its own parts, can make it a huge organism. We can interact with it even beyond a system that transcends a huge organism that interacts with us, it is "one". I don't know what else to call it, except "one". We'll give it a better name eventually. The point is that it gradually forms a single nature. Again, I'm not talking about personal consciousness, I think of it as a bacterium or an algae thing, which is what we call an organism.

Finally, I left a few words for everyone: "There is only one machine, and the network is its operating system." All the screens lead to it, and every bit is in it, "" Share is available, let the one understand "you'll get something that the machine can read. "That is us, we are the one" thank you. Applause)

Author: Kevin Kelly

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