Vacancy rate Shing

The folk's long-standing suspicion of official statistics, the resentment of high housing prices, has turned into an enthusiastic discussion of vacancy rates.　　The industry is looking forward to this as an opportunity to correct the real estate market key data statistics is not sufficient, the method unscientific, the publication of opaque abuses "caijing" reporter Zhang Jie Dong Ji 27-Year-old Lijie briefly became the internet star this autumn. The Beijing taxi driver, using his working hours, took photos of dozens of neighborhoods, nearly hundred black lights, and then posted them on his Sina Weibo (http://t.sina.com.cn), which quickly changed his job-　　He was frequently invited to participate in the interview broadcast on the website radio, and CCTV's Bai also interviewed him. More importantly, these photos immediately became the positive evidence of the big debate on China's housing market vacancy rate.　　Before that, the discussions on the Internet were sweeping across the country, and people and institutions of all kinds were involved. As the discussion gradually evolved into a sun-lit network movement, a number of urban areas 0 meters, 0 meters of the phenomenon has been exposed, a variety of private spontaneous statistics are emerging.　　The long-term accumulation of suspicion of official statistics, the resentment of high housing prices, have turned into a vacancy rate of enthusiastic discussion. The international vacancy rate refers to the ratio of vacant housing area to total housing area at any given moment. But there are still differences in the definition of numerator and denominator in different countries. This index can be used to judge the degree of market heat and bubble, and to analyze the fairness of wealth distribution.　　In general, the vacancy rate exceeds 10% to 15%, which is a danger zone. But in China, the vacancy rate index has been mixed because of the definition and calculation method. Over the years, the National Bureau of Statistics has published only vacant rooms, and this year has replaced vacant rooms with the size of unsold homes. The long-awaited "vacancy rate" version refers to the vacant status of the flats sold.　　From the perspective of data, the former mainly reflects the sales of various types of housing in China, the latter mainly reflects the use of the sale of housing. In addition to vacancy rates, other key figures in the property market, such as turnover and prices, are also in the limelight. However, these statistics are not sufficient, the publication is not transparent, the industry has been criticized for many years, the government as very few. The lack or distortion of the underlying data not only distorts the market's expectations, but also makes it difficult for property control policies to be the right remedy.　　Since 2005, the property market has stumbled on the new deal, the effect of repeated discounts, data lost, when is one of the important reasons. In the face of all kinds of criticism, in early September, the National Bureau of Statistics Director Jiantang Positive response, the National Bureau of Statistics has tentatively worked out a housing price reform program, mainly related to the price of data sources, survey methods, summary methods, calculation methods.　　After soliciting the relevant departments and local views, the National Day will be published online, solicit public comments, and strive for implementation early next year. Vacancy rate of the official people in the time, the State Grid is the source of this wave of vacancy-rate discussions. In March this year, media reports saidA recent survey by State grid companies in 660 cities across the country shows that up to 65.4 million residential meters have zero readings for six consecutive months.　　Since then, although the state Grid has explicitly denied having posted such news, the figure has spread rapidly and has become the focus of controversy on the Internet. July 31, CCTV "economic half-hour" broadcast "Kongchengji-Beijing, Tianjin, based on a large number of long-term housing of the intuitive feelings, the program concluded that the soaring property prices did not reflect the real demand for housing, while the overall market is still in the depth of the game period, the outlook for the trend of house prices are unknown, all kinds of rumors.　　In this case, if the relevant departments can effectively investigate, statistics, release the housing vacancy data, help people to see real estate market real situation, more rationally determine their own behavior, so as to implement regulatory policy to provide effective support. August 3, the real estate sector opinion leader Ren Zhiqiang through the blog to the CCTV, questioning the latter's conclusions. This, in turn, has sparked a greater enthusiasm for netizens. August 5, SINA le Habitat launched a 15-day award "Hundred City netizens Sun-black light action."　　In the second half of the month, the Black Light investigation became the first time in recent years to try to ascertain the vacancy rate exactly geometry of the civil large-scale spontaneous action, involving the real estate in Beijing, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Shanghai, Haikou and other cities. In the meantime, Beijing taxi driver Lijie stand out, almost become the image spokesperson of the action of tanning light.　　With the fermentation of public opinion, more intuitive statistical methods have been introduced into the big discussion.　　Zhang Jingqiu, director of the Department of Urban Science at Beijing Union University, has recently become the subject of frequent media interviews. As one of the authors of the Beijing General housing vacancy rate survey, she drew a sympathetic figure in the April 2009 paper: July 23, 2007 September 23,　　The group of Beijing 2003-2006 has been accommodated in the 44 statistical community of 880 households in the electricity consumption did a survey, found that the vacancy rate of Beijing ordinary housing is 27.16%, specific to residential areas, the majority of residential housing vacancy rate between 20%-30%, only a small part of the vacancy rate below 20%. The survey was completed by Zhang's students at the site.　　Because the electric meter of Beijing residential quarter is generally outdoors, the investigation method avoids the concealment and avoidance that may appear with the user face-to-face interview. The National Bureau of Statistics has avoided talking about vacancy rates. August 4, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that as of the end of June this year, the country's real estate development enterprises for sale of commercial housing area of 191.82 million square meters, an increase of 6.4%, of which, residential for sale area of 106.46 million square meters, an increase of 0.2%, the National housing for sale area of all commercial housing for sale At the same time, "it is not convenient to use commercial housing for sale area to calculate housing vacancy rate, vacancy rate data acquisition, waiting for the national housing Census or the census containing the corresponding housing information." "Director of the Center for Housing Policy Studies, Fudan University, Chen Jie"Caijing" reporter said that the folk statistics, although there are errors, but still have reference value.　　For a long time, China's property market regulation more still rely on feeling, discussion, the need for data to speak, data flying, it is impossible to judge, the policy issued by nature lacks pertinence. Ding Zu, the joint executive director of China Real Estate Information Group, told Caijing that the Government was fully capable of investigating the vacancy rate, no matter how different the concepts were and how difficult the statistical approach was.　　But what the market needs is not just a simple vacancy rate figure, but a more detailed index to analyze the reasons behind the vacancy rate. Those who care about the data also include developers. "Vacancy rate is an important control data, real estate business it to determine how much stock market, the vacant part of the market will affect the price of sale." However, many of the data are specious, the number of departments released, the data is different, causing market confusion, the decision-making department may also be affected by this problem.　　"Sunshine 100 deputy general manager Fan Xiaochong said. Calls for functional departments to be responsible for the many people interviewed by the "financial" reporters said the discussion should be a chance to improve the status quo.　　In fact, the debate over the vacancy rate of the right to speak, the key data in the property market, such as turnover, house prices and other statistics are also widely available, and the source of chaos is the property market is lack of basic data and public information disclosure. The first is the Ministry of Housing and Urban and Rural Development (hereinafter referred to as the Ministry of Residential construction), the National Statistical Office.　　For years, it has been the consensus of most property-market participants that they have been doing their job in data production, statistics, publishing and interpretation of property information. For example, housing construction department under the real Estate market Supervision Division, its main responsibility is to bear the supervision and management of the real estate market, the development of real estate market supervision and stability of housing prices policies, measures and supervision and implementation of the development of real estate enterprises, property services enterprises, housing intermediary qualification standards and supervision of implementation Organize and manage the national housing ownership information system.　　This shows that the registration of housing property rights transactions, transfer and subsequent data collation in the department's responsibilities within the authority. The head of a Beijing real estate advisory body told Caijing reporter that the Ministry of Housing construction in promoting the openness of trade data, transparent construction is not in place, the property market of all types of transaction data, should be public information, but over the years such data has always been multiplicity, "we these organizations are actually very dependent on these data, It is important for market decisions and expectations, but often we have to use second-hand data from other sources. "Chen Jinsong Real Estate chairman," said the experience of Hong Kong, in Hong Kong, a person bought a few sets of houses, house prices, area, property owners and other information, in the payment of a small fee, the other person can be queried. However, "in the mainland, a lot of information is not published, which has become a political issue." "Ding Zu said there are three main reasons for poor data disclosure: first, data statistics themselves do not do well, many cities even the number of residential housing is not clear. Second，There is no problem with data collation statistics, but it is not well done in the release link. For example, Chongqing, Shenyang, these cities do not disclose the regional prices of houses, this is not a secret. Third, the Government's own organizational management problems, resulting in the data can not be collated, not to mention published.　　For example, many cities are leasing their own to the government department for the record, so that the price of housing rents must be distorted. Not only that, some of the data that should have been disclosed for free were being made for profit. A person in Beijing's real estate sector said to Caijing reporter, Beijing Real estate Transaction Management Network is issued authoritative real estate transaction information platform, people can be in the network to query the overall transaction data, but if you want to get more detailed one set of housing prices, and different regions, types of price information, Must pay about 150,000 yuan each year the expense, obtains the VIP inquiry qualification.　　The person said that 2007 years later, even the window is closed, more detailed data has not yet been able to query. According to "Caijing" reporter understands, China quite many two or three line city of second-hand housing transactions still can not achieve online signing. As a real estate town, Guangzhou City is only from this July only to try to run second-hand housing trading network sign. In this situation, many transaction prices are in a state of unregulated, the possibility of private changes in the buyer and seller is very high, the statistical effect of the data is clearly doubtful.　　In fact, even if the network sign, many second-hand housing transactions of the "Yin and yang contract" problem is also difficult to avoid.　　Chen Jie bluntly, compared to the Ministry of Homeland Information disclosure in recent years, the performance of the Ministry of Housing is obviously in the leeward. As for the housing Ministry, the NBS's real estate data are also controversial. February 25 this year, the National Bureau of Statistics announced 2009 70 large and medium-sized cities nationwide housing sales prices rose 1.5%.　　This data and 2009 people on the intuitive feelings of house prices, a moment outcry, many people suspected decimal point misplaced. Although the National Bureau of Statistics has repeatedly defended itself on the basis of statistical methods, it has not been universally accepted by experts. August 18, Jinjorn, a member of the National Institute of Quantitative Economics, a professional academic committee, said the National Bureau of Statistics, for the sake of saving money, used more bottom-up reporting methods.　　However, the credibility of the results will depend on the integrity of the person who fills the form, and the accuracy and rigor of the survey are questionable. Chen Jie to caijing Reporter: "The statistics itself is indeed a matter of spending money, but China's economic strength is already the world's second, in these basic data research should not be so stingy." He also believes that China's lag in statistical systems is obvious compared with advanced countries.　　The lack of key statistics, the backwardness of statistical ability and the closure of information disclosure, in turn, have restricted the construction of other systems and even the ability of government decision-making. "As far as I know, even a lot of central government departments are not too bold to use data from the National Bureau of Statistics to make decisions."　　Chen Jie wrote in his blog.　A positive response from the Bureau　In the face of various criticisms, in early September, at the closing ceremony of the second news media Statistical seminar, the director of the National Bureau of Statistics, Jiantang, explained the improvement in statistics on GDP, unemployment, wages and chain data. Referring to the vacancy rate, Jiantang pledged to sample a number of residential districts in some cities for vacant housing surveys. At the same time, continue to statistics and release the real estate sales rate, and make full use of the census, to obtain information about housing vacancy situation.　　"Caijing" Reporter was informed that the finalists of the special investigation of the city are Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, are rising prices faster cities.　　He also disclosed that the housing price statistics already had the preliminary plan, is prepared to solicit the public opinion after the department and the local opinion, seeks the formal implementation early next year. The National Bureau of Statistics has changed its attitude towards vacancy rates, or has been affected by public opinion and high-level views. A Beijing developer said the initial vacancy rate discussion had a big impact, but the official response was not public.　　A senior State Department leader has asked the NBS to identify vacancy rates. Subsequently, according to people close to the National Bureau of Statistics, August 24, the National Bureau of Statistics convened the Beijing-Tianjin-Shanghai Investigation Corps and the Guangzhou, Shenzhen investigation team in charge of the study of housing vacancy typical investigation program.　　August 26, issued a notice decided in Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai to carry out a special survey of housing use. However, deputy director of Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics, spokesman Yu Shuchen later said that the investigation is only a typical investigation, not a sample survey, so there is no projection of the overall significance.　　This means that the five-city survey will investigate the number of vacant houses, but will not calculate the vacancy rate accordingly. Chen Jinsong that, compared to other more important statistical indicators, vacancy rate is only a small problem, if the country want to find out, it is entirely possible, but only the National Bureau of Statistics is not. Statistical offices are unable to coordinate because vacancy rates are involved in other ministries. 　　Definition of "vacancy rate" in the United States and the European Union the United States is investigating a house in which no one lives unless the owner is temporarily not here. An Austrian vacant dwelling is a dwelling in which no one's residence is registered. The vacant residence in Finland, where there is no permanent residence, including those only temporarily residing in France 　　A vacant dwelling is a dwelling that no one actually lives on the survey day, the premise is that these dwellings are habitable in the German vacant house is the survey day no one actually live residential, including temporary no residential housing, but the leisure vacation house does not count the Greek vacant residence is not officially defined, but generally considered to be in the investigation time empty no one's residence in Italy Vacant dwelling is a dwelling which is not permanently inhabited Lithuania vacant residence is a dwelling in which no one is regularly residing in Luxembourg vacant residence is a dwelling in which no one is actually residing on the day of investigation, including all those unoccupied, being repaired and rebuilt. The Dutch vacant residence is a tuneChage no one actually lived in the house, provided that the Portuguese vacant residence in the market is available for sale or lease, the vacant residence in Slovakia is not available on the day of investigation, and that there is no residential residence on the day of investigation, and that the vacant rural cottages in Slovenia are also counted. No one is living or has been abandoned for the survey day. The abandoned dwelling of the Spanish vacant house is the survey day which is neither used as a common address, nor is there a dwelling for two sets or resorts, provided that it is not in disuse the Swedish vacant residence is a rented dwelling for rent and a newly built but not sold home the British vacant residence is a dwelling in which no one is residing at a particular point in time, including after the transaction Waiting for occupancy, decoration, demolition, newly built but unsold sources: "The European Union Housing Statistics Yearbook (2005-2006)", the United States Statistical Office "housing vacancy rate and housing ownership"