Valuation pressure constrains new energy stocks rebound space

This year, with the introduction of new energy policies and a sharp improvement in market sentiment, the new energy sector staged a wave of frenzied speculation, leading shares Vosges shares and the new growth date has risen by more than 180%.　　Since May, with the start of the market, new energy shares began to enter the adjustment period. Analysts said that in the short term, the vision of policy and the speculation of hot money may push up the plate rebound. But after the first half of the crazy hype, the future policy on the plate price stimulation of the marginal effect of diminishing trend, the performance and valuation of listed companies will be more attention.　　Overall, the new energy listed companies profit is not optimistic, so the plate long-term risk is greater. Valuation substantial overdraft according to wind information statistics, according to the arithmetic average method, as of April 30 this year, the new energy sector rose to 73.89% this year, to win the same period, a total of 61.78% of the gains. In terms of shares, the same period Vosges shares, extension of the new energy rose by 150.83% and 99.7% respectively. After May, the new energy unit entered the adjustment period successively.　　According to statistics, according to the arithmetic average method, since May, the new energy has risen only 14.03%, behind the same period of all A shares of 25.69% of the gains, the market seems to gradually calm down from the frenzy. The Great Wall Securities analyst Zhou that the new energy sector of the crazy hype, mainly by the liquidity and policy stimulus of the dual role. This year, the Government's attitude to new energy (especially solar energy) has changed positively, from the previous "positive guidance" to "strategic high priority", and thus the new energy policy into a dense release period.　　Since May, the "Revitalization of the new energy industry planning" has begun brewing, follow-up may also be "energy conservation and environmental protection industry planning", "Low-carbon Economic industry revitalization planning" and other related policies. However, the sharp rise in the stock price also makes the plate valuation level is high, adjustment pressure is obvious. From the valuation aspect, according to wind information statistics, according to the Ttm method calculation, as of July 13, the new energy plate P/E is as high as 57.1 times times, far higher than all A shares 21.02 times times, while some new energy stocks, such as Vosges shares, Torzino, the Great Wall electrician, such as PE more than 187.99 times　　181.63 times times and 160.75 times times. Profitability is not optimistic. Last week, some new energy stocks appeared to be back on the hot money, which is based on the government is brewing a new energy industry revitalization plan still give the market greater vision; On the other hand, since last week, the market style successfully converted, the small and medium stock relay rose, in this context, It is expected that the floating capital will occasion hype the plate. However, according to the great wisdom of capital flow, the new energy sector in Friday has a net outflow of about 900 million funds, net outflow of larger stocks, including St Mountain, CSG A, Tianwei conservation, Goldwind technology, special transformer electrician, Shen Shares, sailing shares, Sichuan Investment Energy, aerospace machinery and electronics, treasure new energy and the new ability to expand.　　As a result, the rebound in the new energy sector may also be significantly reduced than expected. CiccChen said that the new energy sector in the past 2 months after the adjustment is expected to usher in a new round of rising prices, the estimated medium-term net profit growth of more than 50% per cent of the stock has goldwind technology, special transformer electrician and Dongfang electric; The estimated medium-term net profit grew 0% to 50% of the confidence of the electricity and the country's southern Swiss. In the long term, on the one hand, after the first half of the crazy hype, the new energy policy stimulus to the marginal effect of diminishing trend.　　Following a series of new energy revitalization planning not only will not bring the expected performance growth of listed companies, the other part of the regional revitalization planning is committed to more capacity, which means that the overall marginal rate of return on investment in new energy is declining trend, so the big adjustment of the plate is unavoidable. On the other hand, the overall profitability of new energy listed companies is not optimistic. The Great Wall Securities analyst predicts that the overall gross profit margin of the fan manufacturing industry will continue to lower until the reshuffle is over and the oligopoly pattern is formed. In the short term, some high-priced orders will lead to a high profit forecast, but its performance is not sustainable, so see the empty plate stock price trend.　　At the same time, the new energy major sub-industry polysilicon, cell prices have also fallen sharply, analysts expect the current a-share PV leading performance will be significantly lower than expected. Xinhua News Agency Photo Tabulation/Jing Synthesis/Jianhua