Valuation pressure fade vigilance two times bottom

This issue of "stock market Dynamic Analysis" cover Click here to view all financial news Pictures Liu June the end of the year, many hundred years old shops were overwhelmed by the financial crisis and collapsed, in order to deal with the potential recession, the government implemented 4 trillion large-scale investment plans, together with a number of industry revitalization rules.　　Nevertheless, the shadow of the financial crisis still let the whole market lingering fear, investors can not find the reason to continue to be pessimistic, but dare not easily optimistic. The key moment, "stock market dynamic Analysis" "Watch 2009--a stock Market investment strategy" report and meet the market, participants from all levels elaborated their views. Li Dahuan, director of the British Securities Institute, said clearly: Stocks bring hope! The head of technical analysis in China Lu Chao from the perspective of wave theory, it is clear that: 1664 to 1500 point this area is a bottom, 1664 points since the rebound should be a medium-term rebound.　　Meanwhile, Li Yu, chairman of Asset Management Limited, said in a timely manner when the market questioned the value of investment, to stick to the position of value investment, he also said that the next year is a big interest rate cut cycle, all the assets will be appropriate blowing bubbles, I believe it will be very warm ...　　Market trend twists, after 2,402 point of short-term correction again let the market dilemma, "dynamic analysis of the stock market" launched the "Multiple space dispute", from different angles indirectly expressed the market will continue to rise in the view of the future ...　　Looking back on the market operation trend in the past six months, the Shanghai Composite Index basically runs in the frame of thinking of "stock market dynamic analysis", according to the previous logic, the exponent should step into the two dip stage at present or soon. Statistics show that in the history of a-share market rally has been the last line oscillation, in nearly hundreds of shares to record highs, nearly thousands of shares doubled, follow-up fiscal policy, monetary policy is difficult to repeat the previous scale of the background, with the Shanghai Composite Index after the breakthrough in the year line after the fierce oscillation, Will A shares be plunged into the historical fate of the choice of phased adjustment?　　Is the expectation of the previous two dip in the face of the market? Macro-economic divergence with the gradual implementation of large-scale investment plans, the role of policy in macroeconomic promotion gradually emerged, the China Logistics and Purchasing Association (CFLP) released data showed that PMI (purchasing managers index) for 5 consecutive months to maintain the upward trend, of which April PMI quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1%,　　Reached 53.5%, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen index together to create a "rebound new highs." CLSA, the PMI, once showed an inconsistent pace with the government, triggering a market-mocking fever, but CLSA revised the Chinese PMI data sharply in January and rebounded strongly to 50.1% in May.　　In response, many agencies said the 2 PMI data were consistent and all showed a sharp rebound, with a strong rebound as the main tone. Figure I: Purchasing Managers ' Index (PMI) change chart as the leading indicator of macroeconomic indicators, the continued rise of PMI data "led" the real estate, car and other large consumer industry recovery. Recently, many estates have reappearedThe first day out of the hot scene, some of the regional real estate even put the lottery to buy a posture. Together with the real estate industry, sales of the auto industry have climbed, with car sales hitting record highs in March.　　More shocking is that this is China's first car sales more than "the country on Wheels" the United States, the entire quarter, the number of Chinese car sales leading the United States nearly 400,000 vehicles, "to catch the Premier League beauty" to become a reality.　　CFLP data also showed that the new order index rebounded to 56.6% in April, 3 consecutive months exceeding 50%, and the export order index rose to 5 from last November 29% consecutive 49.1% months. At the start of the PMI rally, market parties have shown a wait-and-see attitude, with the continued warming, leading role gradually emerged, domestic experts and scholars from cautious to optimistic, the IMF (IMF) boldly predicted the world economy in 2009, while the recession increased the growth rate of China's GDP, Goldman Sachs　　, JPMorgan Chase also raised China's GDP growth rate to more than 10% in 2009! The bold forecasts of experts, academics and authorities inside and outside the country have reassured domestic investment banks. Minsheng Securities said that the current lead industry PMI data improvement trend is more obvious, through the industrial conduction effect will benefit more industries.　　The Chinese economy is beginning to show a clearer sign of recovery, boosted by a pick-up in domestic investment demand, the securities said. With the views of many experts and scholars, the micro-level of feeling is another image. According to the latest information, despite the "5 1" legal holiday to promote, many retail terminal sales owners said that the current situation is still very difficult to maintain profitability, some owners are said to have been a loss for several months, of which the Shenzhen Special Economic zone owners of the most intense, "5 1" just over, residual heat remaining　　Several large store owners are impatient to unite, playing "guaranteed profits, Survival," the slogan called for lower rents, otherwise it will stop business. Many manufacturing companies are also showing similar puzzles. Recently, we visited a number of companies, some of the management said that the company's sales have improved, but did not show significant growth; some management said the company is still living in a more serious environment, how to solve the mountain of inventory problems remains the main problem.　　As for the future, only a small number of companies visiting the company show some optimism and self-confidence, more for the current problems, especially the export-focused enterprises. Why is the divergence between macro and micro so great?　　To address this problem, experts and scholars have different views, of which Guotai chief economist Li Thunderbolt's view is more representative, he said, the cause of this problem has two points, one is 2008 or before the accumulation of a large number of capacity or inventory, and the second is the growth of fixed asset investment has a virtual increase in the composition. As a matter of fact, the current divergence was already apparent at the third Private Equity Summit forum held in March 2009. At the meeting, Chinese from the mainland, Hong Kong and the United States on the macro-economic shapeThe potential to express different views, among them, mainland investors are the most optimistic, they expect the Chinese economy to take the lead out of the quagmire while also predicting the U.S. economy has bottomed out and will gradually rebound, but investors in Hong Kong or the United States have shown more intense concern, all said it is difficult to predict whether the U.S. economy has bottomed out. The recent US GDP growth figures and PMI figures also seem to confirm the concerns of foreign investors. In view of this, we cannot help asking whether the current optimistic macroeconomic situation has really gone out of the "V-shaped" reversal pattern, or are we imposing optimism on a macro that is not so rosy?　　Clearly, the optimism of domestic investors about the US economy has proved that we have imposed a passion on "others". Similar questions have been emerging in the country. The latest statistics from the NBS show that the consumption of electricity in China has been negative for several months, and the growth rate is expanding. At the same time, China's CPI, PPI data for five consecutive months under the 0 value hovering below, according to the relevant standards, the current has been basically able to conclude that our country officially entered the deflationary state.　　Obviously, according to PMI data this side of the word and ignore the use of electricity, CPI, PPI and other data is not workable, there is no doubt that the worst of our economy has passed, is now in the recovery phase, but has entered the stage of the revival is now a big difference, in the imminent deflation of the blind optimism Figure 2: The National Electricity Consumption chart 3:CPI index and PPI index contrast (2008.5-2009.4) valuation pressure fade Recent market oscillation intensified, hot switching in the hesitation of successive, with cement, non-ferrous metals, new energy and other pre-popular industries have appeared adjustment, after the early rebound repair valuation,　　The recent valuation pressure has again aroused market concern after the rise. As of May 10, 2009, a-share market overall PE is 22.35 times times, including Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 180 and Shanghai 50 of the overall PE level is 20.35 times times, 19.43 times times and 18.57 times times, to Shanghai 50 as the representative of the first-line blue-chip weight of the lowest level of the PE. In the same period, a-share market total PB is 2.9 times times.　　Overall, the level of market valuations continued to rise as the index rose. China Securities said the index's rally some sectors and stocks of valuation levels have shown signs of bubbles, but the positive effect of policy and external market good performance to the market with greater confidence, the first 4 months the good performance of the market has led to the wealth effect of the stock market gradually generated, the economic recovery has played a positive role in stimulating,　　The recent introduction of a more intensive policy shows that the management's intention to maintain the market, strong policy backing, a short-term economic recovery, liquidity adequacy and the external short-term situation will still provide strong support for the market, the market short-term to do more confidence is still strong, is expected to continue to maintain the pattern of oscillation climbing. However, we can not be complacent by the simple average method of PE level, in the small and medium market share gainsIn the background of far-exceeding index, the number of the numbers can be more clearly compared with the average. Statistics show that as of May 10, 2009, 23 industries have 20 PE levels higher than the market level, 30 times times more than 17 of the industry, 20 to 30 times times between the industry has 5, 10 to 20 times times between the industry only 1, PE level of the highest three industries are integrated, tourism and leisure and Electrical equipment, the PE is 73.03, 51.35 and 50.04 times times respectively. In addition, there are 18 industries in the PB level is higher than the market level, the other 5 industries below the market level, the highest PB level of three industries are electrical equipment, food and beverage and synthesis, the PB is 6.86 times times, 5.56 times times and 4.63 times times.　　Therefore, if the public number as the auxiliary standard to measure the market valuation level, we will be able to see because of "average" and lead to a a-share valuation of the distortion, surface calm under the rolling pipe! Rebound in the market, small and medium market stocks (including small and medium-sized stocks) rose far beyond the logic of the increase in the index is that such stocks in the process of economic recovery can display more flexible profit mechanism. Theoretically, in the premise of stable stock price, the rise of profit will effectively reduce the valuation risk of such stocks. In fact, there is a big gap, according to the latest statistics of the National Statistical Office, in the implementation of positive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, for various practical reasons, in addition to large enterprises outside the vast number of SMEs financing problem is still not well resolved, funding demand gap of more than 1 trillion yuan,　　In the process of economic revival rather than recovery, the main beneficiaries may not necessarily be high valuations of small and medium-sized market-listed companies. For the 2009 earnings of listed companies, a number of agencies have made it clear that, based on the one or two quarter for negative growth, three or four-quarter "positive" situation, the overall profit of the 2009 listed companies than 2008 may achieve zero growth, statistics 2008 A-share market listed companies profit composition show, Finance and other monopolistic industries have made more than half of the contribution.　　In view of this, whether the high valuation of the listed companies of small and medium market can be resolved by the rise of profit is a great suspense.　　Figure 4: Industrial value increase year-on-year growth (2008.5-2009.4) for the huge difference in industry valuation, Zhongyuan Securities pointed out that the phenomenon is not in the year's macroeconomic improvement, nor is it the overall profit of the listed companies during the year changes, the key is the policy and incremental funds. Many industries valuation high, for the moment does not take into account the A-share market itself, the case of the non-tradable will take the opportunity to "quell" this bubble debate? In the early 2009, in the "Stock market dynamic Analysis" of the "non-tradable fear: It's a paper tiger." The article based on the environment at that time to explain the size does not interfere with a-share rebound view, but obviously there is a prerequisite, the core is that the capital to stay in the capital market than the real economy can achieve greater profitability, and now many industries valuationHigh, this premise has ceased to exist, the real economy urgently needed to rescue the capital, the reduction of power into a series of increases, a liquidity-driven valuation rather than valuation to attract liquidity of the chase game is likely to encounter the scale of Third-party power (size) of the sniper kill.　　At a critical juncture, does the fund become a pusher or a thug? Fund industry in the past 2008 years after the adverse finally ushered in unease. Statistics show that, as of May 14, 2009, of the 171 equity funds, 127 of the Fund's annual growth rate exceeded 30%, 118 of the mixed funds, 62 of the fund growth rate of six months exceeded 30% (data source: Tin Fu Yi Fund Investment analysis and decision system Statistic caliber: The time of establishment reaches or exceeds half a year).　　Overall, the recent half-year yield of more than 30% of the non-monetary funds accounted for more than 60%, the results are gratifying. Subdivided in the past six months to fund the growth rate of net worth, the top two is not an exponential fund, not a hybrid fund, but the Golden Eagle (162102) and Huaxia Small and medium-sized ETF (159902) Two of the main investment in small and medium-sized market share of the fund, due to the characteristics of the rebound market,　　The importance of the stock-picking is clearly apparent, and it is no longer a pattern of buying and earning. After the subdivision also found that, in addition to the ability to select stocks, based on the choice of position control is also a magic weapon, and compared to stock, position control more representative, the top 10, the core (590001), Yifangda deep 100ETF (159901), the Chinese market selected (000011) No one is not so, including the Chinese market selection in the initial phase of the rebound significantly increased positions at one time to become the symbol of the marketing of the morale of the event.　　The latest fund position statistics show that 259 open partial-stock funds of the average stock position of 84.39%, of which 145 stock funds average stock position of 87.18%, 114 mixed funds of the average stock position of 80.34%, the overall fund positions to reach the last round of the bull market peak status. Fund positions from the early 65% or so suddenly increased significantly, this means that the arrival of the bull market or means that the fund follow-up intervention will gradually weaken? In this respect, Citic Securities cautious attitude. Citic Securities said that the current position level is expected to fall in the second half of 2008 since the short-term highs, the overall level of the future decline in the probability of a larger position.　　Fund the latest position dynamic and Citic Securities, statistics show that the small and medium-sized fund to continue to follow up, the big fund has begun to reduce. Further subdivision found that most of the funds, the fastest growth phase of the most concentrated in the last quarter, that is, the second half of the six months, the first half of the average performance.　　From this, we can calculate the fund on a large scale on the whole of the time period mainly focused on the 2,402 point before the rapid lifting stage and after the drastic adjustment stage, investment style continues to the right side of the transaction offset. In addition, there is a message that has to arouse our attention,Hong Kong's banking system balances have hit a record high of HK $206.8 billion last week, up nearly 4.5 times times from six months ago, according to statistics from the HKMA. In this regard, Jinghua Shan, a research director Deng Yixu said, hot money to Hong Kong's biggest driving force, or bullish on the mainland economy, that the Chinese economy will take the lead in recovery.　　This view is also supported by the public information of the SEHK, which shows that, since April 30, 2009, the SEHK has disclosed more than 15 overseas investment banks ' claims to increase their holdings of Chinese-made blue chips, and the scale is staggering. Foreign hot money to the bottom of a a-share has been a classic case, 2005 foreign hot Money Joint domestic fund broke 1300 this together in 2002, the operating time of three years long policy bottom is most typical. 4 years from now, is there a similar opportunity to do the same when there is a structural bubble in the market?　　Combined with the recent position of domestic funds and operating style, can not eliminate the possibility of collusion between the internal and foreign institutions, funds or from the hands of the stage into a hatchet. There is no doubt that a A-share is currently in the long-term stage, whether hot money transiting Hong Kong or Buffett China, have been portrayed in the long-term trend. However, this is not our Taeya, Mathanan reasons, combined with a A-share a lot of urgent needs to solve the problem and the attitude of the Fund, we believe that a a-share two of the bottom should be a big probability event. As the contemporary Liu Yan said: "When you stand on a mountain overlooking the higher peaks, the first thing to do is to get down from the peaks of today. 1 for the future A-share market trend, Haitong Securities also said that the most likely macroeconomic situation is short-term stability, But the current market trend has reflected some optimistic investors on the "economic v-type reversal" of the expectations, in fact, even if a few more Yang lines continue to strengthen this expectation, thereby driving the index further higher, but it is unrealistic to expect the wealth effect to pull the economic V-shaped reversal. As the liquidity expected from credit data is difficult to further strengthen, the uncertainty of the economy's low w-type volatility and profitability is likely to turn the index into a W-shaped one.