Vanke a data improves beneficial valuation improvement

Value stands value-CIC Securities Li Shaoming in April sales figures also showed a significant increase, Vanke a (000002) 09 1-4 months of sales have exceeded 08 1/3. With the real estate market continues to rebound, the company's annual performance of the probability of exceeding expectations is increasing.　　We believe that the sales data to the good, the real estate consumption expectations of the change is expected to improve the liquidity of good Vanke's valuation, given its "strongly recommended" rating. Vanke A recently released sales figures for April 09. Company in April to achieve sales area of 595,000 square meters, sales amount of 5.27 billion yuan, although the chain fell 18% and 14% respectively, but the year-on-year increase was significant, up to 23.7% and 22%; April sales average price of 8857 yuan/square meters, the year-on-year decline of 1.2%, the chain up 4.2%, Year-on-year decline narrowed, there are signs of stabilisation.　　1-April, the company achieved sales area of 2.12 million square meters, sales amount of 17.49 billion yuan, the year-on-year increase of 30% and 21%, sales average price of 8250 yuan/square meters, down 6.9%. The company's cumulative sales and sales in April of this year have exceeded 1/3 in 08. Among them, the sales area accounted for the 08 annual sales area of the proportion of 38%, sales accounted for the 08 annual sales amount of 37%.　　According to past experience, the second half of the national real estate sales accounted for 40% and 60% respectively, the company completed the above sales in January-April, but also greatly increased the annual performance exceeded expectations of the possibility. Since the beginning of the real estate market continued to rebound, the company sales growth slightly lower than the market, we think there are two reasons: on the one hand, the 08 base is higher. Due to accurately judge the direction of the market, the company in the first quarter of 08 years to reduce prices, sales area and the amount of year-on-year growth of 67% and 103%, far more than the overall level of the market at that time. On the other hand, controlling inventory leads to fewer items for sale. From the middle of the 08, the company took a more cautious strategy, "quantity out for", in the market depressed 08 inventory Control better, but after a sharp rebound in the market, the company also faced with less than the situation of the sale of items.　　The company did not launch any new projects in 3 April. But with the housing market improving, the company may raise new start plans, the company's financial soundness, less pressure to repay the debt, the first quarter of the rebound accelerated cash withdrawal, in the acquisition of new projects have a clear financial advantage, is expected to add new project reserves in the future. The company said in its 1 quarterly report in 09, "The market situation will be considered to make adjustments to the commencement plan and will be disclosed in interim reports". The company's new starting area for 08 was 5.23 million flat, down 32.6% from 07, while the 09-year plan started 4.03 million flat, down 23% from the actual level in 08. Judging from the current progress in inventory, the company may improve its new start plan. The company added 4.65 million square meters of new rights and interests in 08, 84.5% acquired through acquisitions or cooperation. 08 New projectsFloor land price fell 44% from 07, the end of the year's interest area of 17.93 million square meters.　　09 1 Net debt rate of 24.5%, book cash 26.92 billion, short-term loans and long-term loans due within one year 18.73 billion yuan, short-term repayment pressure is small, financial situation safe and sound, for the acquisition of new projects to lay a good foundation. The main cities in the market area January-April year-on-year growth, May is still expected to maintain the chain growth, and the cover area is a rebound trend, improve the demand is expected to follow. Inventories are accelerating in major cities, and housing recovery is expected to reverse home spending. We believe that the industry's clear inventory accelerated, the data trend is good, the real estate consumption expectations of change is expected to improve the liquidity of Vanke's valuation.　　The company is expected to 2009 and 2010 EPS is 0.58 Yuan and 0.75 yuan, the next 6-12 months target price of 14.5 yuan, to give its "strongly recommended" investment rating. Latest rating target price interval Research institute researcher Date strongly recommended 14. 　　50 CIC Securities Li Shaoming 2009-5-7 Overweight--joint securities fish Jinhuagong 2009-5-6 overweight--Guo Hai securities Zhao Duo 2009-4-27 cautious recommendation--National letter securities Fang 2009-4-27 Increase--Wanguo Shing 2009-4-27 Buy--BOC international Tian Shixin 2009-5-6 buy-Cao Xute Securities holdings in 2009-4-26 increased by 9. 50 Securities Tao Koming 2009-4-26 recommended-Industrial securities Wang Jia 2009-4-9 buy-Citic Securities Chen Cong 2009-4-9 to buy 10. 20 Bohai Securities week households increased by 8 in 2009-4-3. 00 Haitong Securities Shing 2009-3-11 Prudent recommendation of 5. 80-11. 60 China Merchants Securities 2009-3-10 neutral 7. 81 Citic Investment Zhang Zhahui increased its holdings by 8 in 2009-3-10. 50 Guotai Sun Jianping 2009-3-10 diluted EPS (yuan) 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E Forecast Home number----32 32 8 average 0. 5258 0. 7049 0. 3668 0. 4499 0. 5283 0. 6520 Median----0. 4444 0. 5190 0. 6069 Max----0. 5823 0. 7470 1. 0319 minimum Value-----0. 3591 0. 3994 0. 4693 standard deviation----0. 0451 0. 0743 0. 1723 linesIndustry average of 0. 1761 0. 3128 0. 2605 0. 5404 0. 6838 0. 7788 Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 average 0. 5478 0. 7297 0. 5098 0. 6781 0. 8270 0. 9843