VCs: iphone bans people from buying Android

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[Summary] big-screen iphones and more open iOS 8 are a serious threat to high-end Andro markets such as Samsung.

Tencent technology news Samsung and other Android monopoly of the big screen smartphone market ushered in the most formidable opponents, the iphone 6 and the iphone 6 Plus. What impact will these two Apple handsets have on the smartphone market and the entire mobile ecosystem? Andreessen Horowitz partner Benedict Evans expressed concern about the Android camp. He believes that with the launch of the iphone 6 and iOS8, Apple has been trying to shut down the reasons why people buy high-end Android.

The new iphone is the most anticipated product at Apple's launch. Apple has always insisted that it is the kingly way to make the phone small and exquisite. But now it has found that big-screen handsets have become a popular standard. These phones compete directly with high-end Android handsets.

Currently, the company accounts for around 10% of global handset sales, averaging about $550-600 trillion, while Android handsets account for about 50%, on average, at $250-300. (Almost all of the rest are functional handsets, and are moving fast to Android handsets priced at $100 trillion.) However, in the Android ecosystem, high-end Android phones sell at almost the same price as the iphone. In other words, Apple accounts for 10% of the global handset market, accounting for half of the high-end handset market, while Android dominates the other half of the high-end market.

The high-end Android market is dominated by Samsung, which has a larger screen size than previous versions of the iphone.

What impact will the new iphone have on the high-end handset market? Some people would rather buy high-end Android than buy an iphone for the following reasons:

1. Wireless carriers subsidize the Android phone, not the iphone. That is no longer the case, as Apple has commissioned wireless operators, such as Sprint, DoCoMo and China Mobile, to sell their handsets.

2. Consumers are not particularly concerned about what handsets they buy, and the sales of Android handsets (mainly Samsung handsets) by cell phone salesmen are higher.

3. Some consumers do not like apples. This is hard to quantify, but it may only make up a very small percentage. Similarly, some consumers do not have a cold on Google (Weibo) Android.

4. Consumers rely heavily on the Google ecosystem.

5. Consumers are very fond of Android personalization, and iOS has not provided such a design (until iOS8 personalization).

6. Consumers want a big screen.

As we analyze, the problems mentioned in the 1th are largely non-existent. The 2nd is worthless to ecosystem developers because neutral users are always wavering. 3rd insignificant. Apple is now addressing the issues covered in 5th and 6th.

That said, with the advent of the iphone 6 and iOS8, Apple has done its best to block the reasons people prefer to buy high-end Android. Now, Apple allows you to get a bigger screen, free to change the keyboard, and put widgets on the notification dashboard, and so on. Almost all the external reasons for choosing Android have been erased, and the rest is just personal taste and preference.

At the same time, by launching the iphone 6 Plus, Apple is also moving into the market for tablet handsets. The available data suggest that this model has become extremely important in East Asia, but not yet dominant-its market share is about add, a larger proportion in South Korea. Samsung has struggled to make the stylus the selling point of its mobile phone, but with no widespread support from developers, these phones are selling in addition to screen size and "counter price sensitivity" (that is, people buy it because it is the best and most expensive), it is hard to say there are other factors. This means that the iphone 6 Plus may become a real replacement for high-end Android phones.

Finally, like Nokia's history, Apple is still the handset maker that mass-produced handsets and has high-quality hardware designs. Nokia and HTC have both introduced satisfactory handsets, but for a variety of reasons they are fading out of sight. Samsung's hardware design does not seem to have reached that level. Several Chinese handset makers have come a long way, but have not yet reached a direct challenge to Apple. In fact, they pose a major threat to Samsung.

What's more, Apple's big problem with the new iphone is how it affects the dynamic balance of the two ecosystems. Apple has only one-fourth of its mobile subscribers, but it is worth three-fourths.

According to data from WWDC and Google Io, Apple has paid nearly 10 billion dollars for iOS developers over the past 12 months, while Google has paid nearly 5 billion dollars. Google is said to have 1 billion mobile users (excluding Chinese users), while Apple has 550 million to 650 million active handsets (the actual number of users may be less). That is to say, Apple has twice times the application revenue in less than half of Google's users.

We often say that Android users ' average spending is relatively low because the device's prices range from 80 to 800 dollars, while the iphone's average price is 600 dollars; and Android phones are selling well in poorer countries. But the value of high-end Android users should be equal to that of iphone users. New data suggest that these statements are incorrect.

If high-end Android users have the same value as the iphone, and the terminal and low-end Android users are worth less than iphone users (which is natural), then Android will pay developers 11 billion dollars, That would be comparable to Apple's 10 billion dollars. In fact, Google paid developers a fee of only 5 billion dollars. So even the high-end users of Android--its best user base--are far less valuable than iphone users. Now, Apple has started to lock in this part of the user.

This brings us to the question: is the user important, or is the ecosystem important? If Apple can lure a large number of high-end Android users to the iphone 6, will the behavior of those users change? If they can easily adapt to the new platform, So does this mean that ecosystems have become less important to them?

(Benedict Evans, the author of this article, is a partner in Andreessen Horowitz, a well-known venture capital company, which focuses on strategic and operational issues such as consumer technology, ecosystems and mobile platforms.) ) (Le study)