Wenrui Research: Potential user size for instant strategy games

Instant strategy games in stand-alone games (including LAN vs) era has been one of the most important types of computer games, and in the network conditions, this type of game has not grown to be able to compare with the RPG game of a force. March 29 NetEase operation "StarCraft 2" began in the domestic public test, and "StarCraft" is an instant strategy game, one of the most representative products. "StarCraft 2" in the domestic launch once again triggered our online real-time strategy game (hereinafter referred to as the Cyber War game) market prospects.　　How many potential users of the game can be online? As the game market is just starting, the judgment of its market prospect will be based on the analysis of the current main game type user needs.　　We judge the number of potential users of a game based on the comparison of requirements, product features, and the size of the current major game categories according to the online warfare game and the current major game categories. As shown in table 1, from the user needs characteristics, users of the network warfare game needs less than sports, music games, and more than shooting games.　　Single from this factor, the number of potential users of the game will also be between the two types of game users. In addition to the user's needs, some of the features of the product itself will affect the user's choice of the game. As shown in table 2, from the characteristics of the game products, network warfare game indicators close to the shooting game, and the comprehensive user fatigue is higher than shooting games, ranked the top of all game types.　　Excessive fatigue can obviously reduce the attractiveness of online warfare games in many ways.　　Combining the above "user demand" and "user fatigue" two factors, the potential users of network warfare games may be lower than the number of chess users, above the number of shooting users.　　According to Wenrui's survey at the end of last year, the number of client role-playing game users was about 75 million, and the user penetration rate in each category of client game was shown below.　　From this, we can infer that by the end of 2010 Chinese clients online games of various categories of users the following table. The number of client game users in table 4 is not exactly the same as table 3, which may be the result of an error in the survey of table 4 sources or the analysis of table 3.　　If there is no error, the difference between the number of potential users in table 3 and the number of actual users in table 4 may represent the potential of future games.　　Based on the above analysis, the number of potential users of net warfare games is between 250.03 billion people, calculated by the number of users at the end of 2010. From the marketing funnel of game products, there are two obstacles to be overcome in the conversion of potential users to stable users. That is to predict the revenue scale of network warfare game, but also consider the charging mode and level, and service quality. And to predict a product's income scale, but also to join the product and its carrier specific conditions for analysis. (Digging the shell net)