What is the electricity market in the eyes of insiders in five years?

As a link between the virtual world and the real world, e-commerce plays a more and more important role in people's life. What is the electricity market in the eyes of insiders in five years? Is Alibaba still a big family in the mobile internet age? is the platform Model a single big or a business model to subvert the old pattern? What are the opportunities for entrepreneurs to enter the electric business industry? Look at the COO Huang Jo before Dangdang is how to say it!

Baidu News: Old Huang, over the past decade China's electricity quotient composite growth rate of more than 100%, last year, the market size has exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan, you think five years later, how big can this scale?

Huang Jo: My personal judgment is that the era of rapid growth of the electrical business is almost over, and the future will be about 40%.

The growth rate of 100% per cent over the past decade is unsustainable. First of all, China's macro-economic growth is slowing down gradually, will have a direct impact on the electric business sector, followed by the gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend, China's current online shopping in the population of about 400 million (cnnic the latest data is 271 million), it is difficult to have explosive growth in the future. Taobao's revenue growth from Consumer-to-consumer has slowed in the past two or three years, largely driven by the growth of the cat.

Baidu News: Have the channel advantage of traditional retail outlets to enter the electricity business is not very good case, these traditional enterprises why not hit the Beijing-east and other emerging internet companies?

Huang Jo: I think the most important reason is that the traditional enterprise to the Internet too do not understand, the original advantage simply can not play out.

Traditional enterprises do not understand the user's online shopping habits, and the talent gathered by the acquisition is not well appointed. For example, Gome (Micro-BO) acquired the Bowser, but the original electric businessman can not be reused, basically lost, very regrettable.

Many electric business start-up companies already have the advantage of the first, the traditional enterprises if the use of capital advantage acquisition, and then to integrate, can achieve 1 plus 1 greater than 2 effect. Now many traditional enterprises use acquisitions to quickly enter the field of electrical business, this is the beginning of awakening.

Baidu News: You have talked about bullish on traditional companies to enter the electric business, and that this part of the enterprise will become the future of an important power. So will the offline businesses of these companies be hit hard?

Huang Jo: Now the situation is that the user has been moving to the line, this is not reversing the trend.

The traditional enterprise is not should not enter the electric business industry problem, but how to enter the problem, because you do not enter it is difficult to retain users. As for the internal competition of enterprises, it is second.

Baidu News: You talked last week about the business model in the business, and the current situation in China is the platform model, the next five years will be the world of platform mode?

Huang Jo: The past ten years, both online and offline, are platform models dominating the world. But I personally think that this trend will not last, the market share of the future trading model will increase.

The rapid development of platform model is mainly benefited from the rapid development of China's economy, but the platform model has fatal shortcomings. First of all, platform model is the inverse scale effect, rely on ant xiong mode, but the average cost of purchasing 100 pairs of trousers by 100 sellers is certainly much higher than Wal-Mart's one-time purchase of 10,000 pieces. Second, the platform model does not provide a continuous shopping experience, and every time you shop you may face different sellers.

The mode of buying and selling is more concerned with the optimization of supply chain, the more efficient money, the platform model will gradually let the mode of buying and selling, the more developed countries, the less the development of platform model space.

The main reason for the sustained loss in the last decade is the excessive reliance on marketing, the price war and the inefficient operation of the business model.

Baidu News: In the United States, the capital market is more bullish on Amazon, such as the business market, ebay has been clearly ditched. But in China, Taobao represents the Consumer-to-consumer has been dominant, why there is such a big contrast?

Huang Jo: The main reason is the macro-economic impact, Taobao this model in my opinion is an "online commercial real estate."

During the rapid economic development of the past decade, China's most lucrative commercial real estate, in exchange for online is who to master the flow of the entrance who make money. Taobao is the biggest entrance of the electric business industry.

The second reason, China's offline chain is very imperfect, many two or three-line cities do not have a complete chain of business, management level is not high, let alone do online retail. And in the United States, the chain of business is very perfect, to Wal-Mart and other large supermarkets cleaning fixtures can give birth to a chain of companies.

The third reason is the difference in the tax system. Most of China's C-store owners do not need to pay taxes, and the United States is the introduction of income reporting system, tax supervision is very strict. This decided that B store operating costs will be higher than the C store. But the need to emphasize that Taobao and ebay model is very different, Taobao second-hand sales revenue less than 1%, many shops are wearing the C shop clothes, do is the B shop business.

Taobao will not be the future of ebay as the main second-hand goods transactions and auctions, because the sale of second-hand business in China is difficult to do, people and people trust is too low, the Chinese shopping concept is not likely to accept second-hand.

Baidu News: Taobao This typical Consumer-to-consumer platform in the next five years will be completely reduced to the Sky Cat diversion channel?

Huang Jo: From a commercial point of view, to maximize the benefits of understandable, Alibaba how to arrange traffic is the company's behavior, as long as they clear search ranking rules, c store sellers can be recognized.

The entire Alibaba system in addition to Alipay, the value of the cat, the largest amount of traffic to the cat big deal with the overall interests of Alibaba, on the listing benefits.

Taobao's biggest threat now is two. One is on the mobile side, the user to move to the mobile end of the trend is obvious, how to retain the original store and users, is a big problem. The second is the traditional retail enterprises, many people say that the traditional enterprises do not understand the electricity quotient, but does not mean that they have not been able to understand, the traditional enterprises will one day be able to read the electricity quotient, they have a group of people who understand the Chinese business rules, after the strength is very amazing.

Baidu News: How do you see the cost and the Chinese group buying industry?

Huang Jo: It is a successful group buying platform.

But group buying is an industry without intrinsic business logic, the target users are not clear, the cost of access to users is very high, and there is no focus, you recommend to friends of the preferential products when he went to see the time is probably already offline. And a good deal relying on Taobao, Taobao system to do the seller's product sales, is different from other group purchase site ideas.

Group buying sites are spending a lot of money to get traffic, price war has been endless, the user stickiness is very poor, the industry now only do import companies to make money. Compared to group buying, I personally prefer the vertical electric dealer, because the vertical electric business target user more clear.

Baidu News: Do you expect the size of the market for mobile electricity dealers in the next five years? What percentage of the overall electricity market can be accounted for?

Huang Jo: Personally, I am very optimistic about mobile electric business.

Because the user is moving the end, and the future will be more and more. This requires the electrical business enterprise must consider the future product from the mobile end angle. The PC end is search-led, to the mobile end is push. Now many electric enterprises do mobile end products or PC-side thinking in the development, many engineers are doing PC products, it is difficult to get rid of the mindset.

On the mobile side, Taobao cannot continue to dominate, just as Google has subverted Microsoft's dominance and Facebook has turned Google's dominance, a historic trend. I am very optimistic about the development of micro-letter in the mobile phone, because this is a fully adapted to mobile internet products, and the combination of electric business will explode a great vitality. PC-side purchase conversion rate is very low (1%-1.5%), if the micro-letter is good, it is likely to improve conversion rate. As to the size of the mobile power market in five years, I think it is at least 55, and it can account for half of the total electricity business.

Baidu News: For young people who are interested in starting a business in the field of electrical business, what advice do you have?

Huang Jo: In the past few years I have met a lot of young people who are starting a business in the electric business.

If the proposal is to be mentioned, I think there are two points. First of all, don't be greedy at the beginning, do not want to do in the beginning of Ma Yun (Micro bo) second. Doing better within a given range is already good. Even if you change the world, you need only one fulcrum at the beginning.

In addition, from an investor's point of view, the creative is not enough, need to find creative and realistic connection point. There are more opportunities now than in the past, where capital and markets have been combined faster and the regulatory environment has become easier. These all offer a lot of entrepreneurial opportunities for young people.

Electric business field, in particular, mobile electric business, there are many opportunities, this is a new market, full of underserved (low service level), such as the mobile end of the security payment problem, has not been very well resolved, this is because many companies are still in the PC-side thinking in doing, Need new entrants to use their wisdom to solve.

People interview is Baidu effort to build, for the pan it field of eminent persons in the dialogue category column, Baidu News hope to use this platform to gather wisdom, for everyone to provide fresh views.