What might the Internet be like in the future?

Absrtact: Our world is changing every day, most changes are insignificant, and only a few changes can be called turning points. The turning point was such a change that, when it happened, the old forces could struggle for some time, but they withdrew

Our world is changing every day, and most of the changes are insignificant, and only a few changes can be called "turning points."

The turning point is such a change that, when it happens, the old forces may struggle for some time, but the result of their withdrawal from the stage of history will be only a matter of time, the new forces, even at first very weak, but they will seize the future.

The progress of human technology, showing more and more rapid acceleration. As a result, the frequency of turning points is also getting faster, from hundreds of millions of years to millions of years to thousands of years, and eventually to decades or even years.

Just a few examples of turning points that I can think of right now to make it easier for everyone to understand:

The emergence of agriculture is a turning point, the beginning of human settlement life, the emergence of the village, surplus, the emergence of money, the human race began to be divided into different strata, the country appeared, slavery, feudal system appeared successively;

The French Revolution was a turning point, it marked the bourgeoisie embarked on the stage of history, capitalism replaced the feudal system, human society into a high-speed development has never been a stage;

--the ninth session of plenary is a turning point, China's reform and opening-up, the economy into the development of fast lane.

In addition to these major historical turning points, there are also turning points in specific industries, such as:

The advent of the Internet, the first to connect the world, information to achieve a cross-time, cross-regional free flow, to provide the possibility of globalization (previously Wal-Mart through its own satellite launch to solve the problem of information connectivity);

The emergence of container transport, so that the world at the physical level of connectivity, which is another basis for globalization, if there is no container transport, industrial transfer, transnational division of Labor and cooperation can not be imagined;

The emergence of iphone, opened up the mobile internet industry, so that electronic equipment from the extension of human body into a part of the future of human society for the overall digitization laid the foundation.

When we have the concept of turning point, a lot of things seem to get easier to understand. Why did Kodak go bankrupt? Because it was hit by digital photography. Why is Nokia and BlackBerry so miserable? Because it has encountered the turning point of the smart machine. Why is Yahoo so miserable? Because it suffered a turning point in search.

So, what's the next turning point in the Internet area I'm more concerned about? What will the Internet look like in the future? Combined with the sci-fi, non-sci-fi works I have seen, and my imagination of the Pegasus sky, I come to YY.

1, the website, the app will disappear, the information "flows" the form existence

As I said yesterday, being accustomed to is another way of saying that. Many of the things we get used to are not the best solutions, but the products that we have to be forced to do under the technical limitations. For example, our demand is lighting, for a long time, the lighting tool is a candle, until the lights appear, we know that the original candle is not the best lighting tools.

The vast majority of our web sites and apps are essentially media paradigms. The media's mode of communication is radiation, it does not depend on the audience and independent existence, just as the sun does not because no one to obtain its light and heat does not exist, but the different media radiation capacity is different, some radiation is wider, some of the narrow radiation.

Another form of information communication that is relative to the media is communication. Communication must have three main elements: the sender, the addressee, the channel, the lack of any one element, communication can not happen. Compared with the media paradigm, the communication paradigm conveys the characteristics of personal, directional, high information value and high arrival rate.

Is the media paradigm one of the best information dissemination programs? So why do most Internet products now use the media paradigm? Because this is the best solution now. For a long time we were unable to locate the addressee, so we couldn't use the communication paradigm.

Said above may be a little abstract, I give an example, when we use Ctrip, our demand is to book air tickets, hotels, we can call to order, you can also directly login to the website to order. Then the telephone, the website is the core of Ctrip? No, Ctrip's core is a huge ticket hotel database, as well as the various airlines, the hotel real-time contact channel. Telephone, website, just a performance layer of this database.

Is it possible that Ctrip does not appear in the form of a website, but in the form of a micro-letter public account? You said to the micro-letter: "I want to book 20th in Shanghai Hongkou Football Stadium Annex hotel, price range between 300~500", and then Ctrip sent a message to you, listed a series of hotels that meet your criteria , and then you simply click to select one to complete the reservation.

You find me again on the micro-letter, no way, this is the only one I think can express my meaning, the reader can read the example. Have you ever wondered why this product is so good? Because of its user experience? Because of the Tencent tree behind it? Because Zhangxiaolong this cow? The thing about micro-faith is that it's a "Next generation" Internet product, it is based on the communication paradigm rather than the media paradigm, its basic constituent unit is "information flow" rather than "page", its carrier is mobile phone rather than PC, these three features a superposition, enough to let it seconds kill "this generation" of Internet products.

Yesterday I said, is it possible to have a platform that can go beyond iOS and Android and unify these two platforms? I think there will be, it may not be micro-letter, but from the micro-letter, we can see the embryonic form of that platform.

I boldly yy the future mobile phone: its first screen must not be a lot of app, but a piece of information, of course, this information is related to you personally, they may be a friend sent the news, may be your subscription news, may be your job reminders, may be an online payment notice. You don't need to download any apps in advance, or even add a public account, the phone is completely "empty" in its initial state, it's a standby screen, nothing, and when you need a service, just say to it: "Man, I want to see today's tech news," and then a few "news streams" Appears on the screen, you can also say: "I want to buy a pair of jeans, not too expensive, but the quality is also better", so a few "commodity flow" appeared ...

The next generation of the Internet should be based on the communication paradigm. Because only in the communication paradigm, a person can be precise positioning, personalized Internet services can become possible.

2, interactive personification, "click" Into a supplement

According to media reports, micro-letter a total of more than 200 people's development team, of which more than 30 people are developing speech recognition, this ratio is not small. Why do micro-letters not directly purchase other companies ' speech recognition technology, but must be developed by themselves? There is only one possibility--the technology is too important to be done by yourself.

So far, electronic equipment is basically anti-human. The user must adapt to the machine and learn how to use it, not the other way around. Only with the progress of technology, the cost of this study is getting smaller, but fundamentally "people adapt to the machine" has not changed the nature.

"Click" is a typical way of interacting with humans. What is a click? site preset some button to click, you can only choose among these buttons, this is not a person to adapt to the machine? You have to use the language of the machine to communicate with the machine, not the language of the machine to communicate with you.

To be sure, the future of interaction must be human, how we communicate with a person now, the future can be how to communicate with the machine. Natural language recognition, speech recognition, motion recognition, eye recognition and even brain wave recognition are all possible.

There is no doubt that speech recognition is the most humane and most likely universal technology, it is likely to be the most important Internet portal in the future, so micro-trust it is not surprising.

3, the world of data, everything is data

When it comes to big data, many people interpret it as a way of accurately harassing users through data analysis, and there is no media paradigm that jumps out of the Internet. The real big data is not the analysis of the data, but the data itself. The future of large data is to point to the hacker Empire, a virtual world that completely maps the physical world and transcends the physical world will emerge.

Now, our virtual identity and real identity is separate, but with the popularity of smartphones, the real identity distance from the overall data more and more close. For example, we bought a movie ticket online and then watched it at the movie theater by sweeping the code, so we watched the movie as the data, who, what time, how much money, what movie, where we watched, were recorded.

In the future, we will be more and more difficult to cover up the truth, because everything we do will leave clues.

4, identity is the equipment

Perhaps one day, consumer electronics for the individual will disappear, because at that time, the data is stored in the cloud, the terminal is public, and the real device may be just an identification device.

In the world of the first episode of the Black Mirror, screens are everywhere, and the display device is a public facility that does not belong to anyone. When we get close to a screen, it will identify me by wireless communication, and then the flow of information to me can be displayed on the screen as soon as I leave the stream and disappear. Data in the cloud, hardware in the screen, I actually do not need to carry any computing power, display function of electronic equipment, I need, may be just a record of my identity of the high-power NFC chip.

To sum up, my overall judgment is: the next generation of the Internet will be based on the communication paradigm, personal, to the information flow as the basic unit, interactive human Internet. The Internet, built on the media paradigm, will be replaced by the Internet of communication paradigm.

What I said is wrong.