Where is the 2015 Tuyere?

The average time limit for startups to exit is 7 years. And standing in the tuyere can greatly shorten the exit time. At the end of the 1990, the time of acquisition or IPO was only 2 or 3 years due to the rise of the internet boom. The quickest way out is mergers and acquisitions.

A successful IPO usually requires 50 million of dollars in revenue and a few quarters of earnings. But if it is in the air, the demand for profit may not be that high, or even loose for a while (for example, the Hortonworks IPO under the Big Data boom).

How long does the wind blow?

Historical data indicate that those suspended wind balls have a 50% probability of false predictions. Examples include the first wave of artificial intelligence in the 1980 era, the 2000 's early nanotechnology heat, and the 2000-medium-term clean technology and the late 2000 geo-location heat.

The successful winds include social networks (the 2000 's-facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn) and mobile socializing (early 2010-whatsapp, Instagram).

So where are the possible outlets for 2015?

2015 Tuyere

1. Hurricanes-a market that could spawn large independent firms and many acquisitions

Large data

The so-called "big data" can be subdivided into four areas:

(1) Large-scale data processing (Hadoop, spark, etc.)
(2) Intelligent data. Tools such as analytical tools are used by data scientists.
(3) Data center infrastructure (sometimes classified as "large data"). such as Mesos (and mesosphere).
(4) Vertical data applications (e.g. data storage and analysis for health insurance claims)

This market will create independent listed companies, and will generate a large number of acquisitions. Potential Reapers include traditional corporate giants (HP, IBM, etc.), as well as early companies (such as Cloudera, Hortonworks) that have a large stock of shares or market capitalisation in the field. In addition, vertical data companies in health care (and other 2, 3 key areas) may be bought by more professional acquirers (such as UnitedHealth).

SaaS (software as a service-including API developer tools)

As recent explosive growth in some companies (Zenefits and Slack) has shown, SaaS has many opportunities in terms of enterprise collaboration, human resource management, and more.

It is not surprising that this area will have 1 or 2 very large companies (or exits) each year in the next few years. The key is to find differentiated organic distribution modes (SLACK) or business models (zenefits).

To avoid the market being too granular, API developer tools are also grouped here. It makes sense to make many services into APIs because it is traditionally too cumbersome to execute. Stripe and Twilio are two examples of such trends, and Checkr.io is a more recent example.

Genome Technology

Genomics has not yet entered the mainstream hype cycle. However, due to the fundamental changes in the market, at the end of 2015, 2016 may become a hot investment. This could lead to big future investments, or a 100 million to billions of dollar exit. The wave of genomic waves could introduce independent genome software companies (IBM, Oracle, Google, Illumina, etc.), as well as more traditional biology-centric genomics companies (pharmaceuticals and traditional biotech companies as buyers). This field will be the birth of a small number of large listed companies.

2, the wind-there will be many acquisitions, but it is not clear whether the independent company

Artificial Intelligence (AI)

There are two types of AI companies:

(1) Development of generic AI or "general AI platform" companies
(2) The use of AI to solve very specific problems or customer needs of the company (such as the Web page of machine translation or screening case samples)

The first group will be bought out by a handful of companies like Google and Facebook. The second type of company may be the birth of a small number of large independent companies. I'm more bullish on the second category because these companies really create value. However, if you are primarily interested in a quick exit, the first category will sell faster and sell to companies such as Google, which are trying to hoard machine-learning talent, for 1-4 years at a good valuation.

Internet of Things (IoT)

The Internet of Things is a new sexy packaging for "consumer electronics", a modern addition to software and APIs for clunky, old-fashioned home appliances, which enables seamless interoperability and the generalization and recording and use of data.

Now the traditional consumer electronics reminds me of the iphone's Motorola Razr, a great industrial design, but no real software is available.

From the exit point of view, Google, Apple, Samsung, Philips, General Electric and so on to help accelerate their efforts in this market acquisition interest. It is expected that the market will show more small and large (more than 500 million dollars) exit. But it is not clear which companies will become long-term, sustainable public companies after the takeover of Nest.

Security

The market is trickier to crack, but more security start-ups are expected to emerge in 2015. There is a growing demand for secure products from the enterprise side. But the entry threshold for this area will also be higher because it requires both strong sales channels and differentiated products, which will depress the overall market momentum. A small number of startups will get a small (hundreds of millions of dollar) exit, but the industry will be limited to sales bottlenecks (CIOs will only buy security software from a handful of vendors, but too many new startups focus on "features" rather than comprehensive solutions).

3, Roulette-two yuan market, one will work millions bone withered

Shared economy and demand economy

The distribution of labor force or resource sharing will continue to be a hot spot for entrepreneurship. But most startups will fail, but there will be a few big successes. Just as Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn became the first wave of social-networking giants, AirBnB, Uber, Lyft, and Instacart are the giants of the wave-sharing economy (see market capitalisation).

Similarly, as someone (WHATSAPP, Pinterest, Instagram) kills their way out of the second wave of social networks, the sharing of the economy/Labor distribution will be born of several giants, but most will fail.

In a word, one will work millions bone. Too many entrepreneurs want to be "Uber" in a tiny market. The key is to find out how to get the existing big market options (such as Uber and transportation) or to rapidly expand an existing market (or Uber) with a simple user case and product. This player wins when they win because they subvert the whole market.

4. A short period of difficulty

Bitcoin

In the long run, the encrypted currency and the block-loop chain are worth watching. But I doubt the success of many companies now. A number of larger structural events are needed to allow Bitcoin to be widely used. There is not much time window left for the existing Bitcoin company. A profitable (or cash-rich) Bitcoin may be able to survive this shift (as AOL did when the internet really started), but many companies are burning money too fast and are likely to fail. But once the company is successful enough, there will be a large number of potential buyers (Google, Microsoft, ebay and the entire financial system).

As the market matures, the next few years are expected to show a large expansion of cryptographic money companies, but eventually the fittest. Bitcoin may be a few years of bitter days, occasionally there will be 1, 2 single large people go astray exit. But then there will be an explosion of cryptographic money companies that would dwarf the current trend. So I am very optimistic about this area for a long time, but will be worried about its short-term situation.

Investment in biotechnology by software investors

In addition to the genome, I see more and more investors investing in traditional biotech companies. The reason for the rise of genomic technology is obvious because of the sharp decline in costs. But traditional biotech has not enjoyed a big change in the market. The individual view is that the market will be a setback for technology investors who misunderstand the structure of the industry (regulatory issues, intellectual property issues, etc.) and have no good sense of smell for potential markets. While technology investors may not be able to do well in the biotech sector in the next few years, I think a handful of people are going to invest a lot of money (similar to the 2000 's early clean-tech fiasco).