Whether the valuation advantage can lead the elephant to dance and the 5-30 situation is still very different

Recently, small and medium-sized stocks rose weak, real estate, finance, such as the weight of blue chips gradually strengthened, the market from the "82 market" to the "28" market conversion trend (see photo), the trend and 2007 "after the 5 30 market" very similar, does this mean that the second round of "after the 5 30 market" is coming? The weight of blue chips to the stock index is greatly affected by the early themes of the crazy, blue-chip stocks can not be effective performance. Data show that since the "11 7" market, the concept of various themes stocks have soaring, in the period from November 7 to April 30 this year, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 44.24%, Shen Chengzhi Rose 79.04%, the SME board index rose 105.47%, But the statistics of the total share capital in 1 billion shares of the following 1353 small and medium-sized stock (excluding the suspension of stock, 680 in Shanghai, Shenzhen, 673), the performance of the Shanghai 680 Small and medium-sized stocks in the stock rose more than the same period prev close of 644, the average increase of 116.5% , the Shenzhen 673 Small and medium-sized stocks in the increase over the same period Shen Chengzhi increase of 513, an average of 134.87%, accounting for more than 76.23%, and small and medium-sized unit representative of Medium-sized and small-sized plate of the 273 component stocks of 173 stocks rose beyond the same period of SME, the average rose up to 161.32%, Accounted for 62.77%, in contrast to the small and medium stocks, the period of the large market share performance is very general, the Shanghai 50 component stocks only 25 stocks rose more than the same 44.24% increase in the same period, while the current increase of more than 90% of the total share capital of the market is under 10 billion shares, such as Jiangxi Copper industry, Chi-Hong Zinc germanium, Liaoning, Shanghai Automobile, western Mining, poly Real Estate, South Airlines, such as stock gains in more than 100%, but its small weight on the impact of the stock index did not play a decisive role; and to the index up and down the role of ICBC, China Petroleum, Construction Bank, Super-market shares, such as Bank of China, have fared poorly in the same period, rising only 10.84%, 12%, 12.97% and 13.64%, respectively, with only 100 per cent of the total share of the shares in the index of 2 billion, with an average gain of 21, which rose more than 67.76%.　　Xishan Coal electricity, pan-Sea construction, Changan automobile 3 stocks, they also because of relatively small equity, the impact on the stock index is relatively weak, and Vanke A, Anshan iron and steel shares, such as the weight of a large stock, performance is very dull, the two were only up 51.7% and 49%, significantly drag the rise of Shen Chengzhi height.　　Welcome the return of the blue chips as investors in the domestic and foreign economic improvement of the expected, the gradual recovery of overseas stock market, such as multiple positive, May 4 a A-share to the small Yang Line opened, the Shanghai Composite index quickly regained 2,500 points, to China's oil, China Shenhua, ICBC and other indicators for the representative of Along with the market to the depth of development, large-cap stocks in the subsequent trading day in the markets performance alsoGradually highlighted, the data show, as of May 14 closed, the stock market for the two cities of the Shanghai 50 Index and the deep Card 100 index in the first 9 trading days of May, respectively, Rose 6.64%, 7.22%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose to 6.55%,　　And in May far beyond the Shanghai and Shenzhen market gains in the small and medium-sized Plate 100 index rose only 3.91%, small and medium-sized stocks overall in a stagnant state. Judging from the stock price performance of the Shanghai 50 Index, to Shanghai automobile, beichen industry, Poly Real Estate, Handan Iron and steel for the representative of real estate, steel, auto stock performance is the most outstanding, within 9 trading days of the increase in more than 16%, and China's oil, merchants Bank, Baosteel shares, such as super large market shares, although the performance did not have the above　　But the increase is still considerable, both in more than 10%, especially May 13, China's oil to 6.07% to announce the return of the king of the blue-chip market. Market share valuation advantages began to appear in fact, the market development to the present, regardless of the ratio or the city net rate, the current a-share market underestimate the variety is not much, the variety of investment is less and fewer, and the early gains in small stock valuation advantages gradually appear. The current market capitalisation of the top 20 largest state-owned large market companies 2008 net profit of 602.52 billion yuan, an increase of 60.1% per cent, the first quarter of 2009 net profit of 154.472 billion yuan, the year-on-year increase of 0.61%. Excluding the 20 companies, the remaining 1500 listed companies in 2008 net profit amounted to 240.688 billion yuan, fell 44.83% Year-on-year, the first quarter of 2009 total net profit of 59.147 billion yuan, down 50.43% year-on-year, the value of the market shares obvious; at present,　　The 20 companies had a static P/E ratio of 14.59 times times at the end of 2008 and a dynamic earnings ratio of 14.3 times times in 2009, while the remaining companies had a static earnings ratio of 45.94 times times the end of 2008 and 26.9 times times earnings in 2009. At the same time, according to the schedule can also be seen in the current market shares and the relationship between the small and medium-sized stocks and 2007 "former 5 30 market" how similar, that year's small and medium-sized stock valuation is significantly overvalued, bubble serious, stock price soaring, with the 2007 "5 30" of the sharp decline in the early days Market style in the subsequent trading days to convert, the original performance of the general large stocks to the opportunity to exert their fists, launched a wave of up to 4 months of rise, a large number of big market shares rose alarmingly, especially in the period from July 6, 2007 to October 16, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 68.48%, The Shanghai 50 Index, which contains the top 50 stocks in Shanghai, Rose 72.32%, including a large number of shares, such as Jiangxi Copper, Chinalco, Air China, China Unicom and Sinopec. Now the ratio between large and medium stocks and small and medium-sized stocks and "5 30" when there is an astonishing similarity, coupled with the current small and medium-sized stocks have been stagnant, the market stocks began to stir, theoretically exist intoStep up the space, which may hint at the upcoming second round of "post-5 30 quotes". And after the "5 30" situation is still big difference, but investors need to be wary of, the two segments of the market background there are essential differences. 2007 after the "5 30" market is in the Chinese economy with double-digit growth, the market's own performance of large growth, sufficient financial resources (on July 6, 2007 ~10 Month 16th a total of 68 trading days, The Shanghai 50 Index 50 component shares turnover of 9.5 trillion yuan, on average, nearly 140 billion yuan a day, the reform of restricted stock shares limited (more than "601" shares listed less than one year), now, domestic and foreign economies are still in the trough, the global economic growth is weak, a-share listed company performance is also significantly lower than the previous period, The ban on restricted stocks is continuing to hit the market, performance to see the market today like 2007 gradually to "after 5 30 market" change, the market in the fund to increase the size of the continuous expansion of funds and the continued market, so that the market in the short term there is still a possibility of rising, but the real economic pressure, capital face pressure ( April 28, 2009 ~5 Month 14th statistics, the Shanghai 50 Index component shares a total of 520 billion, an average of less than 60 billion yuan per day, restrictions on the lifting of the pressure to allow the rising market can continue to successfully deduce the big variables. In particular, in recent days, the market turnover significantly decline, on the offensive, such as the launch of "after the 5 30" of the weight of the market, there is no adequate funding support, or just a flash in the pan.