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There is no doubt that the
search engine is showing huge market opportunities. What we need to explore here is what direction this opportunity will be distributed.
before that, let's get some background information to figure out what's going on. When I saw some media
's recent involvement in the search engine market as news, and repeated reports, is inconceivable. I have analyzed Microsoft's strategic intent to intervene in the search engine market ("Inktomi Two Heroes") in a book published in the Last century, "digital wealth", which can be downloaded online. At the time, I predicted that search engines and free email would be the two main trends in the Internet platform. As a platform, email has long been a fire, and search engines until now only to fire up, visible market sluggish.
according to the original idea, the inevitability of the search engine, is with the Internet personal media nature, intrinsically related. It would replace the mass media and its advertising model early, becoming a new way of life. Later development, but conservative many, it is just a lot of technology, a lot of money tools, rather than as I imagine a platform. But I think it is not my fault that it is progressing too slowly.
so I'm not at all interested in its recent market prospects, which have been "found" n times things. Interested people can go to the Jupiter Company's latest research report, or the Chinese search League hype. I still think a little more, to guess its longer-term prospects. The technical status of the search engine is unsatisfactory. At least I am not satisfied, you see that Google, even a separate open results page do not do, so that users Lai toss. It's still there. The monkey called the King. The only thing to know is that the side of the day, sooner or later to change.
Which direction does
change?
First of all, the negation of a direction, is the search engine advertising, this is not the direction. Search engines can not lock users, once the vendor's money to do search sorting, it will become the next "push" technology. We have predicted that the decline of the "push" technology is largely incompatible with the nature of the Internet. The internet is essentially a "pull" technology, not a "push" technology; it's a personal media, not a mass media. Things that are irregular will not last long.
I am most concerned about whether the search engine has a platform for the future? It means not only as an application tool, but as a system that can carry other applications. If so, it means that Microsoft-level enterprises and exciting technologies can be generated from it.
on this issue, we must first examine the depth of the technology itself. In this direction, the best way to think about strategic technology is to get the database technology "dead" and to have the data structure live in it, not in the database. What is the use of a multidimensional database if the data has its own necessary dimensions and attributes? Database is like the house of data, in the future the whole virtual world is a database, heaven and earth as a house, and duplication may not mean much. ebXML language, a bit of this meaning, but natural language is no way. For natural language, the technical problem that the search engine faces is artificial intelligence. Especially for Chinese, "Developing countries" in "the cause of developing countries" how to punctuation? The name is "Cultural Revolution" so much, how to separate from the Cultural Revolution zone. Wait a minute. Are the problems that will be encountered in the depth of technology. The essence and difficulty of technology are all in the knowledge mining. The ultimate concern is the nature of the knowledge-based economy. Knowledge economy is a personal knowledge economy. Personal knowledge has many recessive and Meurian characteristics, which is equivalent to the "subconscious" in knowledge. Knowledge mining of personal knowledge is a bit like a psychiatrist's unconscious interrogation of mental patients through consciousness, always separated by a layer. This is the fundamental difficulty of search engine technology. It is far from this realm. Take Baidu, now it is the underlying word technology is a progress, but it is not based on in-depth mathematical algorithms, so the nature is still not artificial intelligence technology, the future let people down is easy. This shows that the search engine technology depth is sufficient, the existing technical order must be unstable. There are many big heroes here.
With major technological innovations and breakthroughs, people may have to make a distinction between the systems and applications of search engines in the future. I may have a desire to search for information when I'm driving, but I don't necessarily need an operating system. Conversely, if the search engine is sufficiently developed, I would rather have a variety of apps, "long" on my search engine, rather than "long" on the operating system. Similarly, I may need a personal knowledge management system in the future, and I don't care whether it is "system" or "application". If there is a good knowledge engine inside, can help me to the "Latent knowledge" field development, I will be willing to all I need creative applications, are connected to this. It doesn't matter whether it's doing it by itself or handing it over to a more specialized application. Perhaps, due to the rich and colorful of tacit knowledge, various value-added services and proxy services will become the main form. In that case, the search engine would become a port, providing passengers with the conditions for sailing ships.
I don't want my personal search engine to be full of ads I don't need. But I want him to be able to search, assemble, and sort the information on my customised theme, as 365AGENT now does. In addition, if possible, search engine can not do more for me, for example, "production" of personal customized magazine, as the different systems (such as refrigerators, air-conditioning) detection and communication interface ...
These are my needs, but I am not satisfied now. So I say, now the search engine status is disappointing. A foolish man refuses to acknowledge the rationality of the customer's needs. And the wise man will go to the front of the customer, define what he does not know, and open up his imagination. This is a very broad area, and I think he will eventually develop in the direction of artificial intelligence and knowledge mining. From information search engine development to knowledge search engine.
in the process, I was not in the position of Microsoft's involvement in search engines, especially early intervention. In my opinion, the technology in this field is immature and needs more competition. If the search engine turns into a browser second, is early to monopolize, just as we can no longer see the original browser that kind of innovation momentum, the search engine technology development momentum will be choked. This is not what anyone would like to see.
