Why do "leading" bank stocks slow down? Short-term fluctuations reflect market anxiety

After more than 10 trading days leading up to the market, banking stocks suddenly dropped their leaders yesterday. May 14, the Shanghai Composite Index low after the concussion consolidation, closed to 2639.89 points, 0.9%, a deal 121.454 billion yuan, compared to the previous day shrank.　　Among them, 40% of the weight of the bank shares dragged the biggest, its early fall after the top, although the insurance shares exceeded, but still hit 2.4% of the decline, ranked second plate. Starting from April 28 This round of quotes, the industry is considered to be the beginning of the blue Chip bar, as a blue-chip entrenched banking sector has been seen as the wheel of the market vane.　　What is the direction of the wind? Short-term fluctuations reflect market anxiety May 14, bank shares have joined the diving army. ICBC, CCB, Bank of China declined by more than 1%, joint-stock banks, including Minsheng Bank (600016.　　SH) fell by 2.99%, ranking first, and China Merchants Bank (600036.SH) followed by a 2.93% drop. Before that, banking stocks had been the leading role.　　The Shanghai Composite index rose from the April 27 close of 2405.35 points to the May 13 closing of 2663.77 points, or 10.74%, the same period, the big Wisdom Bank stock index from 3817.76 points up to 4488.21 points, up to 17.56%, the pull on the market significantly. Why uncharacteristically bank shares?　　Guotai analyst Wu Yonggang told reporters that this is a short-term market volatility, the fundamentals of the banking sector has not changed, he will still bullish bank stocks, that should be appropriate holdings of bank stocks.　　But in the view of the Director of Zhongyuan Securities Institute, short-term market volatility reflects the lingering scepticism of investors in the near future. High on the reporter said, banks, real estate, steel and other sectors of the overall macro-economic reflection will be more direct, banking stocks can be said to be the epitome of the entire economy, if investors optimistic about the economic recovery, increase in banking stocks become inevitable.　　Investors are still sceptical about the prospects for economic recovery. The National Bureau of Statistics 13th released data, industrial growth in April year-on-year increase of 7.3%, significantly below the market average expected value of 8.6% of the level. The Ministry of Industry has recently issued a policy to curb the rapid growth in steel production.　　This, in the view of many market participants, has affected investors ' judgments about the prospects for economic recovery. The second concern for investors is the financial side. Gao said, the market run to this point, the hype is from the subject stock to blue chip change, but 2,600 points above the high, the funds can keep up with doubts.　　After all, the banking sector accounted for 40% of the weight of the market, which is not the same as the speculation of the previous theme stocks, the adequacy of funds to form a greater test. The drop in the flow of money from the war has been reflected in H-shares.　　May 13, the Bank of America dumped 13.5 billion shares of CCB lifted the day after the lifting of H-shares, CCB H shares turnover in October 2005 since the listing of the historical record.Intraday trading data show that the first three five minutes after the opening day, the construction Bank H shares concentrated trading phenomenon, turnover of 38.4 billion Hong Kong dollars, 23.58 billion Hong Kong dollars and HK $8.88 billion.　　The first 15 minutes, the CCB turnover amounted to HK $70.86 billion, the full day turnover of HK $78.246 billion, hand-exchange rate of 52.35%. However, from the 13th data, this situation does not affect a-shares. Citic Securities on May 13, statistics show that from the capital flow and index deviation degree, the bank shares ranked first, as high as 224.887.　　This means that the plate hides huge inflows of capital under a relatively bland index.　　The improvement of bank credit structure has been given to the macro-economic microcosm, blue-chip symbol and other multiple significance, banking stocks is its own.　　Gao said the investors ' doubts about the banks ' stocks are that the bank's credit-creation days are still hard to say. Central bank data show that March 2009, the month of RMB loans increased 1.89 trillion yuan, more than 1.61 trillion yuan, the whole quarter, the new loan set a total of 4.58 trillion yuan of days.　　In April, however, the new renminbi loan volume slipped to 591.8 billion yuan.　　In a study released on May 13, Citic Securities analyst Zhu Yu said credit will be expected to reach 78 trillion in the year to 2009, with a shift in the characteristics of late-stage credit and a slowdown in credit growth in the three quarter, with new loans at 2.5 to 3.5 trillion. While the incremental decline, the credit structure of April has improved markedly. Guotai Financial Analyst Wu Yonggang that the main impetus for loan growth in April came from medium-and long-term loans, non-financial companies and residents of the medium and long term loans were added 374.4 billion yuan and 98.3 billion yuan respectively, the growth rate further increased, Bill financing accounted for a fall to 21%.　　The recovery of general loan growth has positive significance for the further recovery of the real economy and the growth of bank performance. As April CPI and PPI fell 1.5% and 6.6% respectively, combined with a sharp drop in bank shares on 14th, speculation about a cut in the market began to emerge.　　Wu Yonggang points out that the possibility of cutting interest rates is not ruled out, but the space for interest rate cuts has narrowed, even if the rate cut, its negative impact on bank net spreads is negligible. Zhu Yu said net spreads fell sharply in the first quarter, and the likelihood of a sharp reduction in net interest rates was slim as banks ' balance sheets were being priced again.　　And with the change of capital supply and demand, capital market yield may be the first to stabilise, suggesting spreads will also be in the 2, 3 quarter bottom. Higher, said the government can be used to regulate the monetary policy, the downward deposit reserve ratio and cut interest rate is indeed an optional tool, but from the current credit growth and stock market liquidity, the urgency of interest rate cuts is not.　　In his view, the effect of early stimulus is gradually emerging, the worst is over, which constitutes a long-term bullish reason for banking stocks. In Li Diewu, a securities and banking analyst, the stock market pullback led by a slump in bank stocksand external pressure. Reporters noted that the U.S. stock market in Wednesday, closed due to the low retail sales data, activating the market is still struggling with the economic worries, causing the U.S. stocks were sold across the line, the afternoon to accelerate the Sell-off. European stocks closed for the third straight day in Wednesday, with bank stocks being the main drag.