Why does the public mentality always run counter to the market?

President Zhonglin May 12 afternoon, Shanghai Jiao Tong University in front of the sandwich Hall was hung full of welcome Paul Crugger: "The Great Prophet came ...". When the 1998 Southeast Asian financial crisis broke out, many people ignored Paul Krugman's predictions in 1994, but when the 2008 global financial crisis was once again unfortunate by the Non-mainstream economist, people could no longer turn a blind eye to the Great prophet, So the 2008 Nobel Prize for Economics is undisputed.　　Paul Krugman became a model of respect because he was able to keep a clear mind in any situation and not to conform. At the end of October 2008, I wrote that the first half of the 2009-year share index can reach about 2500-3000, the second half will be around 4000-5000 o ' clock.　　Many friends expressed surprise, in fact, China's economy can not only rely on a few data to "dead" to judge, must be independent thinking. The current wide shocks of the market is intolerable, but also confusing, people increasingly difficult to grasp the future market direction. Most brokerages to 2009 's highest position only set below 2,800 points, some brokers also send text messages to customers, "call" collective clearance, control risk. To tell you the truth, I have not seen the securities dealers have such a unified understanding of the future market. Retail investors are undoubtedly influenced by this view, with countless people clearing out near 2,500. So, how many of these chips are sold by retail investors?　　Looking at the rising market, the answer is self-evident. I am not a prophet, but an investor. But I've never seen a stock market top that even retail investors can predict.　　We can only change the angle of thinking, seriously thinking about the psychology of the public investors always with the market reverse? A-share market has never lacked capital, only lack of confidence. The stock market is the barometer of the national economy, and as China's economy moves rapidly out of the shadow of the global financial crisis, the stock market is bound to respond quite a long time ahead.　　If we have to get the Economist's approval right now and then invest, I believe it would be much easier to try to learn to turn yourself into an economist than to succeed in investing in the stock market. Now there is a constant infusion of new capital in the stock market, and the future market will remain slow in the "fear and fear" trend. However, I believe that in the next few months, the market, in addition to maintaining this trend, a necessary big adjustment will also be quickly launched.　　Otherwise, the stock market in the second half of the year will lack sufficient "cleaning", and will because of the market's people impetuous, and become a lack of solid development foundation, difficult to long. So, how will the current oscillation pattern be interpreted? When will a big adjustment in the future come about? I believe it will never be the present. Because now most investors in the market are still trembling, treading on thin ice to buy and sell stocks. When the top is coming, don't hold all the main players. So, in thisKind of case, the market is never likely to produce a longer head shape. Even if it is, it's just a temporary head. The big adjustment will only come suddenly when most investors are ready to greet the new highs with cheers. Now many people began to tune in to the air more, the crisis will be more by idling more people reached a consensus after the coming.