Why to keep optimistic about the development of science and technology--an interview with Marc an

on Twitter.

Marc Andreessen, a tall, bald-headed venture, has developed the first mainstream browser and co-founded Netscape. He invested and made a fortune in the early days of Twitter and Facebook. He was a Silicon Valley philosopher who, on Twitter, was bold enough to express his attitude towards all sorts of things, attracting a large number of supporters (and causing him to get into a lot of trouble). At this time of great controversy in the tech industry, Andreessen is the "cheerleader" of the tech circle and is actively promoting his own unique vision of the future.

This article is compiled from New York magazine's interview with Marc Andreessen, the original content is longer, this is the first part.

When you first met Mark Zuckerberg, he asked you, "What is Netscape?" "And so on.

He did not know.

He was in high school when you founded Netscape. In the science and technology industry work, in 10 years can be turned upside down changes, the birth of some new ideas, what do you think of this?

I think it's very good. For example, I think there are two kinds of Silicon Valley now: one is a person who has experienced the dotcom bubble for 2000 years, the other is composed of people who have not experienced that period of time, and their psychology of doing things is completely different. Like me after 2000 years, there will be psychological shadow, because the situation was so bad, the days are very sad.

You came to Silicon Valley in the 1994, what was the Silicon Valley like?

The Silicon Valley was lifeless. The 80 's was a period of rapid PC development, with giants like Apple, Trent and Microsoft. However, in 88 and 89, the U.S. economy was in a slump and Japan was booming. Silicon Valley had a brief moment of glory, but Japan took control. At that time, the American economy fell to the bottom. Opening a newspaper is all kinds of disaster and bad news. America's technology has been fatally hit, economic growth has stalled, and American children have become "gen-x" (Slackers, the 90 film Reality Bites)--without ambition and unwilling to do anything.

What did you do?

I went to college and did what I had to do. I came here in 94 and the whole of Silicon Valley is hibernating. In high school, I thought I would learn Japanese to enter the technology industry. When I came to Silicon Valley, my biggest feeling was: "I just missed, missed everything, big things happened in the 80 's, I came too late." "But then I might have become the most optimistic person I know." I am particularly optimistic and sometimes optimistic about mistakes, especially when it comes to new ideas. When I saw a new idea, my first reaction was "maybe it worked" instead of "is this going to work?"

I've been trying to keep this mindset because it's easy to forget. I remember when ebay appeared, I thought, "This thing is not going to be a flea market. How many rags can people put in their garages? Who would want this crap? "But that is not the case. "Let's not think about whether it works or not," said ebay's founder and early-stage investors. "If this model does work, you build the world's first online trading platform to circulate a wide variety of goods and create a real price discovery mechanism."

But obviously not everything is going to work out.

Yes. Some people are naturally cautious, while others are optimistic. I can tell you that, in the last 20 years, if you are an optimist, you will generally be right.

Conversely, if more cautious in 1999, many people may be able to keep their pension money, this is not the technology industry to maintain a prudent role?

I don't know why you're so supportive of skepticism. To put it this way, if you can find a period of time from the last 100 years and always remain stable, without any change, then your proposition is set up. But this has never happened and skepticism is always wrong.

Recently, the culture of Silicon Valley is somewhat similar to Wall Street in the 80 's

There are both good and bad aspects. You get the idea from entrepreneurs that it's better to start a company in a bad economy because there are fewer bubbles. Of course, that doesn't mean it's easy to start a company when the economy is bad. But overall it will be easier to recruit, with fewer competitors. It's really hard to start a company in a boom, because everyone has high entrepreneurial enthusiasm and a lot of money is pouring in.

Now there are some big companies in the scientific and technological sector: Facebook,google,amazon,apple. What do you think is going to be the future of the start-up company?

All the companies we invest in.

As an investor, you are greedy.

You must love every child equally.

One of the things you seem to enjoy, at least on Twitter, is to collect pessimistic predictions from people like Paul Krugman, such as "the Internet will be the next fax machine."

These remarks are part of the technology industry. But strangely enough, this spirit has actually gone deep into the heart of American culture. Have you read Tocqueville's book? There is a paradox in the core of American culture: theoretically, we like to change, but when the real image of change, there will be a lot of opposition. What we like is a change in the general sense, not a specific one. No matter anyone has done any reform, there will always be someone who says, "It's bad, it doesn't work, it's stupid." ”

The media's attitude towards technology must be more cautious than yours.

The media are constantly making various cultural criticisms. Many of them I disagree with. But there's something I think makes sense: is technology gobbling up all the jobs? Inequality of income; controversy over disruptive innovation.

I noticed that you don't like Jill Lepore's article on subversive innovation published in The New Yorker.

His article lacks analysis, more is a kind of primitive shout. But the most maddening thing about this argument is the idea that 3 years ago that innovation was dead, and that our lives had a "big stagnation" (the great stagnation, the title of a book written by Tyler Cowen). Robert Gordon, an economist in Chicago, said: "All the new things are awful, how can you compare them to the industrial revolution?" There will be no economic growth in the future. "To be honest, I think technology has a huge impact on the world, not the world," he said.

(To be continued)