Wind power five years out of favour: wind change development inflection point coming

The new energy concept, once favored by the capital markets, is now being "abandoned" by investors. The same is the wind power equipment giant, 2007 the first day of the Goldwind market price rose 250%, has created the concept of wind power "myth."　　3 years later, Goldwind's rival, Sinovel, came to a break in the first day of the IPO, plunging 9.59%. Slishan, deputy director of the National Energy Agency's new Energy and renewable Energies Division, said, "The wind power operation is not stable, can not be used as the main support power of the grid, only appropriate participation in the power grid peak." In January 2011, the Renewable Energy Professional Committee of China Resources Comprehensive Utilization Association and the International Environmental protection organization Greenpeace jointly released China Wind Power Development Report 2010, from 2005 to 2010, domestic wind power installed has experienced 5 years of doubling growth,　　By the end of 2010 China's wind power generation installed 41.83 Million-kilowatt to overtake the United States as the world's first wind power.　　In the rapid growth of installed capacity at the same time, domestic wind power prices from 1 yuan per degree or more down 50%, at the same time due to the power grid construction lag can not withstand such a large installed capacity, Inner Mongolia and other fields of wind farm began to appear "abandon wind" phenomenon, that is, the fan issued by the electricity due to the inability to enter the grid and wasted.　　In the face of a new round of government plans to develop renewable energy, it seems that wind power is no longer the preferred option.　　How did wind power turn from "Darling" to "Outcast" in 5 years? Policy support for the generation of electric enterprises "happy enclosure", the annual session of the two sessions, power business leaders meet provincial leaders are plays, and the search for new energy development cooperation is almost the focus of conversation. "one researcher said.　　With a number of policy support, the five major power generation groups at the cost of horse racing enclosure. "The development of China's wind power market is mostly supported by policy."　　"An overview of a well-known fund manager in the country is not a point." The Renewable Energy Law was promulgated in 2005, and it is clearly stated in the law that the State will implement the full supportability system of renewable energy generation.　　This gives investors confidence.　　The renewable energy medium-and long-term plan, introduced in 2007, also explicitly stipulates that investors with a total capacity of more than 5 million-kilowatt per cent of equity generators have a capacity of non hydro renewable energy generation, which should account for 3% and more than 8% respectively in 2010 and 2020.　　More than 5 Million-kilowatt of investors in the country are central and local large power generation groups, but also means that major power generation groups to develop wind power is a task. With a number of policy support, China's wind power development into a fast track. The five power generation groups, which occupy 60% of the domestic power generation market, began to race and build wind farms around the world. Local governments also incorporate wind power development into local economic development strategies.　　including Gansu Jiuquan, the current domestic has 7 tens wind power base, and plans to build it as "land Three Gorges." Although at the beginning of wind power development, high cost, wind power price is higher, but in order to obtain wind power resources, many enterprises are still notCherish the loss to get the project. A senior electricity researcher said, "At that time to get the project to fight is actually the enterprise's ability to resist losses." He said that during the annual session of the two sessions, the leaders of power enterprises met with the provincial leadership are the plays, and the search for new energy development cooperation is almost the focus of conversation.　　There have been media disclosures, in a northern province, a company has signed a wind power project agreement with the local government, identified the development area, did not expect the province directly arranged to a larger central government, so the project in the hands of the enterprise, the previous agreement is equivalent to a piece of waste paper.　　At the beginning of the 2011 New Year, the energy province of Shandong has 20 construction projects approved by the NDRC, 16 for new energy construction projects, of which 12 are wind power projects, Huaneng, Guo Dian, Datang, China Resources and other power giants are in their columns. In fact, this kind of enclosure action continues to unfold, and began to spread to the sea. In September 2010, the first round of the domestic offshore wind power concession project bidding, a number of Central enterprises Power group reported to the industry eye-popping ultra-low prices. China Electric Power Investment Group is two times to cast out 0.6101 yuan/kwh of the full floor of the lowest price, which is not only close to the current onshore wind power prices, and even lower than some areas of thermal power peak electricity prices.　　This price is generally believed to be doomed to loss, because the industry is generally expected offshore wind power capital preservation price of about 1 yuan per kwh. The concept of wind power "fell out of favour" capital market in China as the world's wind power, the problem is also emerging.　　Wind power seems to have been "out of favour", the problem of wind power grid is becoming more and more prominent, the policy of the increase in power seems to be ineffective, the capital market is no longer optimistic about this new energy concept. December 26, 2007, Wind power equipment manufacturers Goldwind in the first day of the listing, the price of a strong 138 yuan opened, to 131 yuan price close, compared to its 36 yuan of the IPO, the date of the listing rose more than 250%.　　But the same is the wind power equipment giants, and came from behind Sinovel, although the price of 90 yuan to set the most expensive IPO record, but on January 13, 2011 trading on the first day of the break, the decline reached 9.59%. For three years, capital markets seem to have lost patience with the concept of wind power. A fund manager said, "Domestic wind power has experienced a high-speed development period, and the problem of wind power online is not resolved, now the main profit depends on government subsidies." "The Problem of wind power network is indeed the bottleneck of the development of the industry, 2008 years, a statistical data shows that the domestic one-third of the fans in the idling state."　　In other words, because the power grid transmission construction lags behind the construction of power plants, some wind power plants in the installed, the electricity can not be sent to the grid, so the power generation enterprises can not achieve effective power generation, so as to achieve profitability. The Electricity Regulatory Commission has previously pointed out that the power grid construction and wind farm construction is not compatible with the problem of the grid-connected is an important reason. Grid companies have also said that power generation companies and local governments to develop wind power is too enthusiastic, not to take into account the local power grid construction planning. But in fact, the current grid construction by the grid companies cast, while the construction of wind farms by power generation enterprises to build, in the construction of wind farms enthusiasm of power generation enterprises and local government enthusiasm and power grid enterprises are not synchronized.　　A grid company expert said that the wind power is not stable, and can not be used as the main support of the power grid, so the same size of wind power to be equipped with considerable firepower or hydroelectric resources, in other words, to solve the problem of wind power online is not overnight, not with the power grid can be on. The loss of confidence in wind power is not only a a-share investors. At the end of 2009, the group's Longyuan power Group, with the title of Asia's largest wind power company, was listed in Hong Kong, raising 17.136 billion per share of HK $8.16.　　Driven by the wind power of the dragon Source, the other two central Chinese power generation Group Huaneng Group and Datang Group's new energy companies have plans to go to Hong Kong listing at the end of last year, but because the market downturn Huaneng Group finally gave up the scheduled listing in Hong　　Even Shi Changjun, the Executive Director and general manager of Longyuan Power, said 2010 earnings would double, and the capital markets were no longer like the wind power. A well-known domestic fund manager said, "Wind power seems to be very profitable, but Longyuan wind power from the listing has been very few fund managers in this stock has made money, hurt the hearts of many fund managers."　　"As of January 28, 2011, the Longyuan Hong Kong stock market has reported 7.02 Hong Kong dollars and its share price has fallen by 14% per cent in the year."　　Analysis policy modulation wind power into twilight age?　　In addition to grid-connected issues, after 5 years of exponential growth, whether the future wind power to maintain rapid growth and domestic wind power policy seems to have "changed tone." Slishan, deputy director of the National Energy Agency's new Energy and renewable Energies Division, said in an interview with reporters, "with wind power, solar power generation is still facing the problem of Internet, as well as biomass power generation to solve the problem of raw material collection and other issues compared to China's hydropower development has a complete system, hydropower has to speed up the construction of the conditions.　　"Twelve-Five" during the year China's new hydropower installed capacity will reach about 20 Million-kilowatt.　　Does this mean that wind power has gone into twilight? Slishan said, "The wind power operation is not stable, can not be used as the main support power of the grid, only appropriate participation in the power grid peak."　　"This suggests that wind power can only play a supporting role in the grid.　　The consensus is that hydropower and nuclear power generation costs are significantly better than wind power, and hydropower, nuclear power operation is stable. A study by Credit Suisse last December showed that at present, domestic wind power, thermal power, hydropower, natural gas, nuclear power, the five types of electricity supply structure, the total cost of electricity is 418 yuan/MW, 354 yuan/MW, 296 yuan/MW, 616 yuan/MW, 220 yuan/MW,　　The cost advantages of hydropower and nuclear power are obvious. But Qinhai, secretary general of China's Renewable Energy Association, is still optimistic about the development of wind power, and he believes that to achieve the Chinese government by 2020, non-fossil fuels accounted for an energy consumption of 15%Commitment means that the installed capacity of wind power should reach about 200 Million-kilowatt by 2020. The current domestic wind power installed capacity is only 40 Million-kilowatt in the calculation, in the next decade, the average annual new wind power installed capacity should be able to reach about 20 Million-kilowatt.　　However, even if the new installed capacity of 2011 years to 20 Million-kilowatt, 2011-year wind power installed growth rate is only about 50%, in the future each year with the increase in the base, the growth rate will also decline. This edition of the interview/newspaper reporter Zhongjingjing