Yesterday, the World Bank released its China Quarterly report in Beijing, which raised China's GDP growth rate to 8.4% in 2009, higher than the previous forecast of 7.2% and 2010 to 8.7%, up from its previous forecast of 7.7%. Among them, domestic demand is expected to contribute nearly 12%, net exports to make more than 3 percentage points of negative contribution. In the 8.7% growth rate next year, export contribution is about 0.4%, and domestic demand is estimated to contribute more than 8 percentage points. The World Bank believes that China's economic growth rate is expected to continue to accelerate in 2010, but the structure of spending will be significantly changed. World Bank estimates that global imports, with the exception of China, will grow by 2% next year, at constant prices, after a 12.8% drop this year. A rebound in GDP next year is expected to save the decline in imports this year, which will also support China's export recovery growth in 2010. The World Bank predicts that real estate investment will remain strong for 2010 years, and that the contribution to GDP growth must be higher than 2009. Notably, the bank's economists are divided over China's macroeconomic policies. Ardo, China's chief economist for the World Bank, said that while the growth rate in 2010 would not be much higher than the potential growth, the overcapacity in the manufacturing sector would take time to digest, so inflation was not a major risk in the immediate future, and there was no need to tighten macro policies in the current real economy But Kuijs, senior economist at the World Bank, said that even if stimulative macroeconomic policies kept China's economy growing at a respectable pace, it would need to address the asset bubbles and misallocation of resources that would result from liquidity adequacy, and monetary policy would tighten next year. In addition, the World Bank raised GDP growth in 09 from the previous 5.3% to 6.7% per cent in 2010, to 7.8%, and forecast growth of 1.1% per cent in East Asian developing countries this year and 4.5% next year. Reporter Liuyang
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