WTO predicts global commodity trade growth of 9.5% this year

Global merchandise trade is expected to rebound strongly and grow by 9.5% this year after a sharp 12.2% drop in 2009, according to figures released by the World Trade Organization on 26th in Geneva March 26. The WTO said on the same day that, as the global economy emerged from recession, total exports of developed countries were expected to grow by 7.5% this year, while exports from developing countries were expected to grow by 11%.　　However, such a strong rebound could only partially compensate for the heavy losses suffered by global trade in 2009, assuming that current trade growth is sustainable and that it will take the next two years to fully restore global trade to the level before the 2008 economic crisis, while the developed world will recover more slowly, probably in 3 years ' time. The WTO also says the forecasts are premised on a 2.9% per cent increase in global economic growth this year.　　As the global economic recovery remains uncertain, any unexpected positive or negative economic signals could prompt the organization to adjust its trade growth forecasts. Patrick Loh, chief economist at the World Trade Organisation, said the factors that prompted the WTO to cut trade growth included further increases in crude oil prices, appreciation or devaluation of major currencies and other negative news in financial markets.　　However, there may also be factors prompting the organization to raise its trade growth forecasts, such as the rate of unemployment in developed countries falling faster than expected. WTO Director-General Lamy also warned that trade protectionism remains one of the major risks to global trade this year, and countries need to avoid protectionist actions that undermine the global economic recovery.