Zhou: Smart watches don't have a future

A recent trend is very hot, as we all know, that is "wearable equipment." Google launched a Google Glass, now Apple and now out of the watch, all of a sudden the whole industry is very excited. So, everyone is saying, wearable equipment is a new trend, is a new trend, is the future of industry development.

Do you think the wearable equipment is a chance? With the right nonsense, it must be a trend in the future. We can see that the first Internet equipment from the PC to pad to mobile phones, they are smart devices, and the Internet, and the data in the cloud to interact, more and more devices will be interconnected, the internet will be everywhere, I think this must be the future trend.

But even if it's a trend, will there be a chance for you? I see a lot of companies that have two misconceptions about wearable devices:

First, in the United States, a thing to sell 99 dollars, which is a very cheap price. However, the conversion into renminbi, this is 600 yuan, in China is not a cheap price. You have to make a "wearable" smart device in China, and I think it has to meet the real needs of China's most extensive grassroots users at prices they can accept.

Today many companies imitate Apple to make a watch, I give the advice is very direct. Today many men wear watches not to look at time, more to show identity, or as an ornament, or to catch up with a trend. So, now the watch has only one function, is the trend. But, to be honest, China's enterprises, regardless of size, whether it is High-tech enterprises, do not have the elements to create fashion, do not have the ability to lead the trend. You can not make a watch out, to reach the height of hundred Patek, and can not like Apple to lead the trend.

Chinese enterprises to do watches, must be functional-oriented, no matter what, feel good to add to the inside, text messages, calendars, weather forecasts, micro-blog, micro-letters and so on, must be indispensable. But you watch a small plate, battery endurance is not enough, you see something on the watch, it is better to take the phone from the pocket to directly use more convenient. In terms of functionality and convenience, watches are less competitive than mobile phones. So, I think that smart watches don't have much to do except wear a cool dress.

Moreover, today's mobile phone has no longer call as the most important function, but the function of entertainment, is playing game equipment, is the Internet equipment. Everyone has experience, when you see used to 5-inch large screen, and then let you see a 4-inch small screen, it is tyrants gold, you do not want to buy. So some wearable equipment looks like an opportunity, but it's actually a trap for Chinese companies that can make you spend a lot of energy and money, but consumers won't pay for it. Therefore, the Chinese enterprises to do wearable equipment, the first thing to ask yourself, you have solved the user what problem? Why do users buy your products?

The second misunderstanding, some small companies do a smart hardware, that added functionality, added value, you can make high profits. Wrong, the biggest subversion that the Internet brings today is that in the next five years, it will change the entire business model and business model of the hardware. Some time ago, in the television industry, we have seen, the internet of these crazy people rushed in, 50-inch TV sold 2999 yuan, 60-inch TV sold 3999 yuan. Is it the Internet function that attracts people to buy these TVs? No, people are buying the price. Why is there such a price? Because according to the track of Internet development, the hardware will sell according to the cost price, and the service of the Internet can obtain the scale income and profit. There is no profit in selling hardware.

The trend of hardware towards 0 profit, even free, was long predicted by Kevin Kelly. "In the future (at least for a short period of time), everything we make will be free of charge: refrigerators, skis, laser projectors, clothing and so on," he said in a "technology wants free" article. Implementation of the premise is that these things converged in the network node, as the carrier of network services. ”