An Analysis of the rise in the stock market after yesterday (May 24)

I. The day before yesterday, Mr. Obama said that China's stock market would face a slump.
Is Alan correct? We will not analyze the correctness first. We will do some logical analysis first.
If Alan is right, will hot money and institutional investors immediately sell their shares? It is wise to continue to the top stock market, because there is a stock index futures to be launched later. One of the functions of stock index futures is to "find the correct value "! What does it mean? When there is no stock index futures, making money is only one channel and direction for the stock market to rise. Therefore, people always expect the stock market to rise. If everyone expects the stock market to rise, the result is that the stock market is more likely to deviate from the correct value and the deviation distance is greater. After stock index futures are launched, investors can maintain their futures positions in the opposite direction. However, there is still speculation, which can be achieved by buying and selling futures in large quantities.

What does the output mean?
Let's talk about normal purchases. The complete process of buying a stock is to "buy a stock and then sell the stock". The number of shares between the purchase is equal, and the difference is profit or loss.
Then, "selling index futures and then buying index futures" means that the number of index futures is equal, and the difference is profit or loss.

Selling has brought us a brand new profit channel, in the opposite direction as we were familiar! We can benefit from the stock market decline! At this time, it is not easy for people to produce paranoid expectations in the wrong direction. If the stock market is too high, people may be more willing to return to the normal value and make profits by selling them.

Note: These speculative items may not necessarily be profitable in the spot market. They can make profits through the futures market. Even if the spot market is a loss, the overall situation is still profitable. The reason is very simple: the futures market is highly leveraged, and the current proportion seems to be 10 times. Simply put, if you establish a short position in the futures market, you will spend 0.1 million yuan as a deposit. When the futures expire, the stock index fell by 10%. In addition to recovering the original deposit, the stock index can earn more than 0.1 million yuan. That is:
Profit = 0.1 million * (100% margin + 10% market volatility x 10 times the leverage ratio)

Obviously, even if I spent 0.1 million yuan on the spot market and used these spot chips to drop the stock price, there was no residue in the end, and I still lost my hair. And if you don't have any residue in the spot market, the rest is what you earn.

Now, we can see that it is entirely possible to sell the stock index through the chips in the spot market and sell futures for profit. Of course, there is a precondition: the stock index is too high!

The stock index is very low, so people hold shares without considering fluctuations in the stock, they can get normal benefits, such as annual earnings of about 5-10%. If the stock price increases, there may be additional benefits. The stock price has fallen, so long as I don't leave it, there will be no problem, because there will always be a day to rise. At this time, people are willing to buy how much stock you throw in the spot market, because they are willing to keep the stock. At this time, it is difficult to sell stocks to suppress the stock index, or the cost is quite high.

When the stock index is too high, people hold shares and the return rate is very low. For example, the 100-fold price-earnings ratio indicates that the company's earnings per share for the next year will be roughly 1%, which is generally smaller than this. 1% means lower interest rates than existing banks. At this time, people are willing to buy shares based on expectations that the future share price will continue to rise. Although this expectation is unreasonable, someone is willing to try as long as there is too much money. As long as you are willing to try, the stock price will continue to rise. This is an abnormal vicious circle, and the current stock market is like this. In this case, as long as the stock price keeps falling for a while, people will sell it in a panic, because the loss will not make any profits! The stock price fell by 10%. Even if the annual income is actually 1%, you may have to hold it for 10 years to earn back the principal.

It can be seen that the higher the stock price, the easier it is to sell the stock to combat the stock index, and the lower cost required for the unit stock index change.

Now we can analyze why hot money and organizations are willing to continue to trust the stock market:
Suppose we are the hot money owner. If we cash in all of them now, the stock index will fall. We cannot clear all the goods at once, so most of the stocks are sold at a position far below 4000. When all stocks are cleared, we assume that the stock index is down by 50% or 2000 points. On average, we get 4000 less money than the total value of stocks held. It is measured by stock index, which is equivalent to the value of the stock at around 3000 points. Let's assume that the investment was made at around 1500 on average. As a result, it is doubled in total. Suppose we invested 10 million yuan, then we earned 10 million yuan.

If we don't cash in now, we will continue to make the market. When we reach 6000, the stock index futures will be launched. At this time, we will start to sell the goods. The stock index fell to 2000 points when the stock was sold out. On average, the money we get is equivalent to the value of the stock at around 4000 points, so the market value of the spot market loss is. It is assumed that the first investment was still made at around 1500 points on average, while the second investment was made at 5000 points on average. The first investment accounts for 20% of the total investment, and the second investment accounts for 80% of the total investment. The first investment gains 100%, and the second loss is 20%. The total profit/loss rate is:
Total % = (100% Principal + 100% income) * 20% first proportion + (100% Principal-20% loss) * 80% second proportion
= 40% + 64% = 104%
Since the first investment is 10 million, the second investment is 4 times the original investment, that is, the total investment is 50 million, and the 4-percent profit is equivalent to 0.2 million.
This is not over yet, because I have taken out another 10 million billion items and sold out futures until all my shares are sold, that is, the stock is closed at, and the position is closed. This yield is 200%! Multiply by 10 times, with a total yield of 2000%! The final cost of this 10 million connection became 0.2 billion 10 million!
Therefore, the total rate of return becomes
Total % = (spot income: 0.2 million + futures income: 0.2 billion)/(spot Investment: 50 million + futures investment: 10 million) * 100%
= 333.67%

It goes without saying that as long as the main force has enough money, it will surely survive the day when stock index futures were launched! Is the primary account sufficient? I can say for sure, it is enough!

So why does the old saying cause the stock market to fall the next day?
Most investors who do not consider these factors will be panic due to the old saying! As we can see from yesterday's observations, most investors did not know the news at the beginning-the stock market is still crawling fast. However, we can see that there were several times of high pressure, resulting in a rapid decline in diving. Generally, investors will ask, what is happening now? At this time, as long as there is news to him: GE said, the Chinese stock market will quickly fall, And he will believe it. So the intention of ordinary investors began to reverse and began to sell continuously.

So what do hot money want? Why? It is very simple. As analyzed above, they still need to constantly absorb chips. When the stock index futures come out, they will throw these chips to suppress the stock index and then make profits from the futures market! Now, the first thing we should do is to suck up, suck up, and then suck up!
However, what I analyzed above is an overall strategy. Following this overall strategy, we should be able to make a huge profit! But it depends on your detailed operations. For example, if you suck a chip at a low price, the cost will be low. If you try to suck, the stock price will go up, rising fast, and your cost will be high. In general, it should be a period of time, just a little bit of pressure, do not let the stock price soar. If you encounter any negative news, it will be better, and the cost of suppression will be lower. After the suppression is completed, we will take advantage of the opportunity to attract funding, because the price at this time is relatively low.

Let's see what happened yesterday? The opening climbed and began to fall after the opening. One hour before the closing of the market reached its lowest point in the afternoon. The last hour climbed up, but the close did not drop sharply. As analyzed above, there may be organizations under pressure to open the market. If people are throwing and no one buys them, the transaction volume will decrease. However, the fact that such a large volume is released indicates that many people are still buying. Who is buying? In addition to irrational investors who do not know the news, there are hot money and institutions.

Why did it go up again in the last hour? This is a very delicate operation, because it does not want the stock market to rise too fast, resulting in a high cost of funding. But when it comes to the fight, retail investors feel dangerous. It is also difficult to pull the stock market. Besides, the more the index deviates from the normal price, the higher the profit level in stock index futures. That is to say, hot money and institutions still hope that the stock market will continue to rise, but they do not want to rise too high or too fast. (In addition, there is another risk that before stock index futures are launched, the stock market has risen to the level where all retail investors are afraid of it, and will fall ahead of schedule, and will not reach the goal of maximizing profits .)

In fact, we can see a lot of similarities by looking at the talk from foreign investors or financial investors recently. Let's take what Rogers said last time:
1. He thinks the Chinese stock market has investment value;
2. He thinks the current price is too high;
3. He thinks there are risks;
4. He thinks he will increase his investment in the future.

There is no error in every sentence, but the time problem is not clearly understood by the average person. As a matter of fact, I guess when he said this, the stock market fell sharply the next day, he made a desperate purchase. Let me break it down:
1. The Chinese stock market does have investment value, but it is mainly not in the company's profitability and prospects, but in the prospect of China's exchange rate appreciation and interest rate hikes, there is also the prospect of China's demographic dividend, and the prospect of launching stock index futures in the future. Therefore, if you think that China's current high price-earnings ratio is reasonable, it would be a big mistake.
2. The current price is indeed too high, but it is based on the price-earnings ratio. In fact, as early as 2000, China's stock market was no longer a technology market (analyzing the company's profitability), but a capital market. As long as funds flood into the market, the price will rise. If funds are withdrawn, the price will fall. There is no technical reason to explain. In other words, the potential line is that although the price is too high, it will still be higher.
3. There is a risk, but this risk is also about price-earnings ratio. However, the price-to-earnings ratio has lost its role, so the rest of the risk is whether the profit can be maximized. To maximize profits, you cannot let the stock market go up too fast or let it go down. So the next day, when my family escaped from unknown sources, what organizations were doing was to raise funds. What do you worry about when organizations continue to raise funds? General investors may not be able to see the intention in advance, but when the stock market is later afraid of the first fall of the high point plus 3%, it should be clear that the main force not only did not escape, but also is still overweight.
4. There will indeed be more investment in the future, which is very straightforward, and the future will be "the next day "! Imagine if you don't want to let him fall, then you will continue to climb up slowly in the future, and there will no longer be such a low price opportunity in the future! The next day, we won't be able to get the momentum to raise funds. It's a fool. (Of course, I am also a fool, and my level is not so high. Before he said this, I ran away from some of them. Later, I responded and went in again .)

So should you rush in? What tactics should we adopt? I will share it with you next time. Keep in mind: the stock market risk is indeed high. If you have not read any books about finance, you do not have good logic analysis capabilities, and you do not have a keen sense of financial experience, it is best to wait until you have all these capabilities before entering !!

Add:
There was a sharp drop in early May, which was reported to be related to the withdrawal of some investors in Hong Kong from the stock market. Don't think that Buffett and slogs are all rich, and they can be very accurate. There are few high people in the world. Their withdrawal actually proved to be a wrong decision, because it has increased by more than 10% since the withdrawal. And there are still no signs that the momentum will be adjusted in the next week, at least by noon today, there is no such momentum. Where can I see the withdrawal of foreign capital on that day? View exchange rate! The RMB depreciates on the day, rather than the appreciation, and is the biggest devaluation since the exchange rate fluctuates to a certain extent. The reason is that some people sell renminbi to buy US dollars (or linked foreign currencies such as Hong Kong dollars), the renminbi sold will be the same as the stocks sold, causing a decline (that is, a devaluation ).

The stock market rose again this morning. What do you mean? "It means yesterday was a false surprise." at least the main force wants to give you this impression.
I told a friend yesterday before the opening ceremony early in the morning that it must have been a false surprise. I said again at noon, and today it will certainly not fall sharply. The closing price should be close to the opening price. In the end, it seems that I have been blinded by both of them. What about today? Needless to say, it must have continued to rise. As for the next few days, I want to proceed with careful analysis, and I have not yet commented on the technical diagram.