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" Black Swan--how to deal with the unpredictable future " nacmu Nicholas Taleb
about the Black Swanbefore the discovery of the Australian Black Swan, all Europeans were convinced that the Swans were all white, and that the people had reached this conclusion after millions of certainty, and had lasted thousands of years until the Black Swan appeared, thus breaking the conclusion completely. The phenomenon of black-and-white swans shows that the knowledge we gain through observation or experience has serious limitations and vulnerabilities, and only a completely different discovery is enough to subvert the conclusions that are deep in people's minds. The book describes not the Black Swan this animal, but through the discovery of the Black Swan and thus affect people's understanding of the theory of the extraction of this event, referred to as the "Black Swan" event. The "Black Swan" event satisfies a three-point order to be known as the "Black Swan" event:
1. In the past, there was no evidence of the likelihood that it would occur, beyond the usual expectations. 2. There will be an extreme impact, which can have a profound impact once it has occurred. 3. It is accidental, but human nature prompts us to justify its occurrence after the fact, and more or less considers it to be explanatory and predictable.
from the other side, the Black Swan event is a phenomenon, a kind of uncertainty and unpredictable phenomenon, these phenomena will have a far-reaching impact on people. There are two more important terms in the book: the average Stan and the extreme Stan. Most of us are affected by collective, routine events, known events, and predicted events that fall under the category of the average Stan, but we are also affected by individual events, accidents, unknown events, and known events that can be attributed to the category of extreme Stan. The Black Swan incident occurred in the extreme Titan, and of course the extreme Titan is not entirely black Swan incident.
Harvestin the first reading of the book, or because of their social experience is too little, or because the Chinese version of the book is really not very much, let me read very hard, some chapters are easy to understand, some chapters let me at one time, but the final reading is quite rewarding. The sentences that are considered more meaningful by the individual in the book are as follows:
1. Honesty means not being independent and not afraid of the consequences of being maverick.
2. Destruction is much easier and quicker than creating.
3. You cannot judge by past experience alone.
4. We can approach the truth through negative examples rather than positive evidence!
5. Our greatest wealth is the respect of others.
6. A lot of general good news is happier than a very good news.
7. It is better to experience all the pain in a short period of time than to distract the pain for a long while.
8. A person may only like a book, the maximum number of books, more than this is excessive reading. The person who treats the book as a commodity cannot really like books, just as people who make friends have a superficial understanding of friendship. A novel You like Is like a friend, you read it and read it more and more. Like a friend, you accept it the way it is , and you don't judge it.
9. Evolution is a series of lucky successes, both good and bad.
10. No matter what anyone tells you, it is good to ask questions about the error rate in the expert thinking process.
11. Think about how many families have screened the future, locked themselves in a firm property and thought they would live there for life, without knowing that the record of people living a stable life was bad.
12. The quest for certainty is a human nature and a habit of thinking. --Bertrand ? Russell
13. The world is moving forward through large, random changes.
14. Maximize the good encounters in your life.
15. In fact, the reason why I immediately adapted to the United States was that American culture encouraged failure, unlike Europe and Asia, which regarded failure as a disgrace and embarrassment. America's expertise lies in taking these small risks for the rest of the world, which is why the country has extraordinary innovation. Once you have an idea, you can implement it and then "refine" the idea or product.
16. Don't waste time arguing with forecasters, securities analysts, economists and sociologists, unless that's what they make fun of. --The great uncertainty philosopher, Kat ? Beira
17. An event to become a black swan event, it is not only rare, or crazy, it must be unexpected, beyond our understanding of the possibility.
18. It is difficult to calculate their likelihood, but it is easy to form a general concept of the probability of their occurrence, this kind of black swan event can be attributed to the Gray Swan event.
19. Some ideas are contagious, others are not, some forms of superstition spread, some do not, and some religious beliefs dominate and some do not.
20. An idea that is to be disseminated must be consistent with our nature.
21. People are unaware that failure is a success, not a pursuit of profit.
22. Everything that may be deprived is not worth a souvenir.
23. History does not crawl, it only jumps.
24. Many people are busy in their lives and believe that they are doing the right thing, but they cannot come up with tangible results for a long time. They need a sense of satisfaction from time to times in order to continue to be subjected to the brutal blows of people around the situation without losing courage.
25. The person involved in the gambling has received another non-material reward: hope.
26. If you earn $10 million and then lose $9 million, it's worse than no money at all!
about the author
Nassim Nicholas Taleb(Nassim Nicholas Taleb), ranked 40th among the 50 most influential business thinkers in 2009 Crainer Dearlove. is a founder of Ampirica Capital and a researcher at the Kumran Institute of Mathematics, New York University. He has traded a variety of derivative financial products in New York and London, as well as an independent trader in Chicago. February 2001 formally became a member of the derivative financial commodities Trading Strategy Hall of Fame. He received his bachelor and Master's degree in science from the Paris University , an MBA from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, and a PhD in Management science from the Nineth University of Paris in Helyette Geman. Taleb is fluent in English, French and classical Arabic language, fluent in Italian and Spanish, and reads a large number of classical texts in Greek, Latin , Aramaic, Ancient Hebrew, and Canaan. Currently the most awe-inspiring risk management scholar. Well-known books have "Random Get rich fool", "Black Swan World", "Black Swan". It is called the father of Black Swan because of the "Black Swan" theory.
