Successive tactics (Game Theory tricks)

In addition to making moves at the same time, there is also a way for participants to take actions in turn. When it is their turn, each participant must look forward to what impact this step will have on other people's future actions, and what impact it will have on their future actions. That is to say, in the game of successive moves, each participant must predict the next response of other participants and calculate their best moves accordingly. This kind of forward and backward reasoning is very important and is a basic criterion for determining strategies.

 

We can also use a war between the two major media as a case study, but this time the price became the shells of both sides.

 

In the summer of 1994, the New York Post dropped the retail price of newspapers to 25 cents on staten, and soon its main rival daily news responded: increase the price from 40 cents to 50 cents. It seems quite intriguing, but it is only the result of a series of game actions.

 

Originally, the earliest prices for the two newspapers were 40 cents, but the New York Post believed that the retail price of the newspaper should have risen to 50 cents, so it was the first to take action. The Daily News took the opportunity to stay at 40 cents. As a result, the New York Post lost some subscribers and the resulting advertisement recipients. At that time, the New York Post believed that the situation would not last long, but the price of daily news had been fixed. The New York Post was annoyed and thought it was necessary to tell daily news that, if necessary, he was able to launch a retaliatory price war.

 

Of course, the most credible proof is to launch a price war, but it will also cause losses to itself and cause both losses. Therefore, the goal of the New York Post is to make daily news feel the credibility of the threat without the cost of actually fighting, as a result, it designed a strategy to raise the price of daily news, and carried out a trial force to show that the price was reduced to 25 cents on Staten Island. Sales have risen sharply, and "Daily News" has recognized its intention.

 

Given the terrible consequence of the price war between times and daily Telecom last year in London (in September 1993, times dropped from 45 cents to 30 cents, forcing daily Telecom to cut prices, as a result, the profits of "Daily Telecom" were greatly reduced.) as well as the Staten Island action, "Daily News" gave up speculation and adopted a wise compromise strategy, it also raised the price by 10 cents, and it was neither afraid nor unwilling to anger the New York Post. In addition, the price increase is not a disadvantage for it.

 

From the payment situation of both sides of the game, this is also the result of both sides's advantageous strategy.

 

We can generalize these examples into a rule that guides simultaneous actions, that is, if you have an advantage strategy, follow suit. Do not consider what your opponent will do. If you do not have an advantage strategy, but your opponent has it, then assume that he will adopt this advantage strategy and choose your best practice.

 

During the Eastern Jin Dynasty, Lu Xun was appointed Yongjia taishou after Xuan was in charge of the DPRK power. Lu Xun was on the surface and secretly expanded his power. After the chaos of Liu yuping's Xuan dynasty, he controlled the Dongjin Dynasty and the Government, and appointed Lu Xun as Guangzhou's thorn history. Lu Xun's brother-in-law, Xu Daofu, was the first phase.

 

Yi Xi six years (410) Spring, Lu Xun and Xu Daofu while Liu Yu north expedition Nanyan, the rear empty machine, the implementation of North Zheng. They joined the army at the beginning, and then joined Xiangzhou (now Changsha) and jiangzhou (now southwest Jiujiang, Jiangxi) in the north of East-West Road. Xu Daofu was forced to enter the East, and Lu Xun reluctantly agreed a few days later. Then he arrived at Huai Kou (now Qinhuai River estuary, Northwest Nanjing, Jiangsu Province) from Sang Luzhou (northeast Jiujiang, Jiangxi Province ), it is close to thousands of experts.

 

Liu Yuwen news from the Northern Expedition frontline rushed back to Beijing division, deploy defense. When he came to the Yangtze River, Liu Yu said to the generals: "If the thieves are advancing directly from the new pavilion, they will not be able to block the barriers and should be avoided for the moment, if it is "win" or "negative", it cannot be inferred. If they go back to the West Coast to park, we can see the first battle ."

 

Xu Daofu suggested entering the white stone from the new pavilion, and then burning the ship to log in. Attack Liu Yu in several ways. Lu Xun planned to adopt the best possible insurance strategy and told Xu that: "according to the degree of confusion of the enemy, they will crash in a few days. Now, deciding whether to win or lose is just a morning event. Relying on luck to win profits on the battlefield, it is not a way to defeat the enemy, but it will damage the troops. It is better to hold on to them ."

 

Liu Yu boarded the Stone City and looked at Lu Xun's troops. When they first saw them moving towards the new pavilion, Liu Yu's face changed slightly. I'm afraid Lu Xun launched a hacker attack. Later, he saw the enemy ship return to caizhou to park, and immediately mobilized all the troops to move and concentrate, and cut down all the trees to set up fences in Shitou city and Qinhuai River estuary. At the same time, the people were ordered to renovate the three bastion hosts, xingzhuzhapu, pharmaceutical Park, and tingwei as soon as possible, where zhenbing kept them. As a result, Lu xunbing was forced to return to Xunyang in early July due to a shortage of food in the last two months.

 

Lu Xun failed because he should not be affected by the status of the other party. Instead, he should go through the Yangtze River. This is his optimal strategy. As the attacking party, whether the other party has mobilized or not redeployed the troops, his strategy can ensure that His sharpness is not bruised, and create the maximum pressure.