Where is The Romance of the Three Kingdoms?

Author: Zhu Jincan

Source: http://www.cnblogs.com/clever101

 

At2011The speech "New Trends in mobile Internet" at the mobile Developers Conference describes the distribution trend of mobile operating systems:Windows PhoneThe launch of the mobile platform market has gradually become the trend of Three Kingdoms (not the original saying, which roughly means this ). So let's analyze what will happen to the power of the Three Kingdoms in the future.

 

First, let's analyze the types of people in the mobile industry chain and what their goals are. According to my analysis, it is roughly as follows:

 

(The table above is based on the company's main business, such as Apple. In my opinion, it is a mobile operating system developer.

Samsung also has its own mobile phone operating system, but its main business is the design and manufacture of the entire device)

 Then we analyze the psychology of consumers buying a mobile phone. I think there are two aspects: hardware and software, such as hardware: Strong hardware performance, beautiful appearance, and so on. software: the mobile operating system is designed to be user-friendly, there are a lot of fun games and software. From this we can see that the three types of people listed in the table are interdependent: mobile operating system developers want their own mobile operating systems to run on more mobile phones, it depends on mobile phone hardware design and manufacturers to sell more mobile phones; mobile phone hardware design and manufacturers to sell more mobile phones, mobile phone operating systems and third-party mobile phone developers need to develop software and games to attract consumers. independent third-party mobile phone software developers need to develop software, mobile operating system providers are required to provide convenient development tools andSDK. That is to say, there is actually a chain in it. Based on this analysis, we will draw some interesting conclusions.

 

Apple's critical Defects

 

If Apple has any fatal defects, it may be disrespectful to the current popular apple. When I first sawMacMachine hardware InstallationWindowsSystemBoot campWhen it comes to tools, you have to feel the strength of the market: If you are stubborn like Apple, you can also change it. You can take the initiative to open it to the market, or you can open it with its strength. If Apple has any defects, it is closed, just like its product line, from software to its own hardware. According to the above-mentioned industry chain analysis, we can see that the chain in Apple is like this: Apple produces mobile operating system developers and mobile phone hardware, independent third-party mobile phone software developers inIOSDevelop software on the platform. Apple is dominant in this chain. That is to say, if Apple has always maintained its existing innovative design capabilities and other advantages, it may be able to maintain its current market position; but if it cannot, its decline will inevitably be avoided. OverallItIn the development history, basically no company can remain a leader in the market for a long time. Especially after the death of Apple's spiritual mentor Steve Jobs, there are still questions about whether Apple products can maintain the style he advocates.

 

Windows PhonePolicy

 

throughout Microsoft's family history, we come to the conclusion that Microsoft is rarely a pioneer in the market, but it is often a superior. There are many examples, for example, the WYSIWYG graphic interface is not created by Microsoft ( it was developed by Xerox ) , however, Microsoft has carried it forward. The first web browser was developed by Netscape, but Microsoft's ie However, it can beat the online scene.

What is the magic weapon for Microsoft to win the competition? Microsoft relies mainly onWindowsThe industrial chain generated by the platform. People useWindowsA simple and important reason is that there are software and documents required for our work and life. Microsoft has formed a highly reliable alliance with many hardware manufacturers and application software manufacturers. It can be said that the alliance is prosperous and damaged. Some time ago, Microsoft'sWin8The platform willHTML5, Will discard the original development language, suchC ++,. Net. I said that Microsoft will not do anything that undermines its industrial chain unless it does not want to do it.

 

Return to the topic of the mobile platform. Microsoft is copying its ownPCSuccessful Experience in the market. Microsoft chose to cooperate with Nokia to promote it through the powerful mobile phone production and design capabilities of the latter.Windows PhonePlatform. But we can also imagine,Windows PhoneUsers are not limited to Nokia. Microsoft intendsWindows PhoneCreate anotherPCOnWindowsAnd many mobile phone hardware manufacturers and mobile phone software manufacturers form a reliable alliance. This is also the power of Microsoft. It never wins by the power of its own family. Instead, it targets competitors around the industrial chain formed by a platform.

 

The business market chain is very similar to the biosphere principle. Friends who have taken biology courses all know this truth. The richer the species of the whole bio-sphere, the more stable the system is. We imagine this scenario: if Apple crashes, which companies will be damaged? I think we should create hardware manufacturers for Apple, such as Foxconn andIOSSoftware developers on the platform; if Microsoft breaks down, all useWindows PhoneMobile phone hardware manufacturers and software developers will be greatly affected. Which chain has many species? You can think of it. Microsoft has some advantages over Apple. First, it only needs to focus on cell phone operating systems without considering hardware. Second, it can try to increase the number of users through its own efforts.WindowsSoftware developers are attracted to mobile platforms.

 

Of course I'm not sayingWindows PhoneThe future is bright. Microsoft also faces many problems: for example, as a market initiator, how to catch up with market starters in innovation and design; how to promoteWindows PhoneHow to attract developers.

 

Worries about Android

 

It should beGoogleThe Research on Microsoft is very deep. It knows that Microsoft's success model is hard to be copied by other vendors. It adopts a competitive model I call it "business model with open source colors ".GoogleThe benefits of the Android system developed to mobile phone hardware manufacturers are also obvious: first, it is free and does not need to pay license fees for operating systems similar to Microsoft. Second, it is open-source, the advantage of open source is that it can be customized at will, and it can attract a large number of developers.

 

It seems that android Windows Phone Is advantageous. But there is a hidden worry. First, because Google The acquisition of Motorola. GoogleThe acquisition of Motorola, on the one hand, avoids a large number of patent infringement lawsuits, but on the other hand, raises doubts about its industry positioning. One concern of mobile phone hardware manufacturers is whether the Android system will change from a public operating system Google Your own operating system. Although Google I have made a statement on this matter, but I still want to take practical actions to trust the mobile phone hardware manufacturer. Samsung began to abandon Android to develop its own mobile operating system out of worries. Bada . The second is that open source has its advantages, but its defects cannot be underestimated. You can think about the many incompatible Linux Release version. Unlike PC Software Development: independent third-party mobile phone software developers have a stronger demand for cross-platform software. How to ensure the application of each customized Android versionProgramCompatibility, which is also GoogleA problem to be solved.

 

Summary

 

To sum upWindows PhoneOptimistic, ifGoogleIt can solve the problems I mentioned above and also have a place in the competition. If Apple does not change its closed strategy, its decline will be hard to avoid.