Ideal stream: The Future of software

If we do not use divination to predict the future, we must analyze the reality and perform logical deduction. For software, there are three main factors that determine its future: the external requirements, internal characteristics, and Personnel Status of the software.

In addition, laws and regulations, and the economic environment will also have an impact on the future of software. However, if the time scale is relatively large, the impact of these aspects will be contingent, therefore, we ignore these relatively secondary factors.

The external requirements of software can be divided into two parts: one is the real needs of users and the other is the business model of software. Let's start with the business model.

Google often releases some free software, which has a considerable impact on the software industry. As small as the manufacturer of GPS, as large as Microsoft are all worried. Google has never been a hit.

We will analyze this phenomenon.

As the fundamental essentials of capitalism, equivalent exchange cannot be violated. Therefore, in the foreseeable future of the world, the real free price will never become the mainstream, and some will only change the profit model and the operating methods based on actual changes. The rise of Google actually marks the rise of a new business model.

Microsoft's profit model is more traditional. I want to sell it. You can buy it. Therefore, Microsoft's software cannot be free of charge.

Google's profit model is quite unique. You can use the product for free, but if you want to pay attention to me, I will turn this kind of attention to advertising, and ultimately get profits from advertising. Therefore, Google's software can be free of charge, but here free is also an auxiliary means of profit.

Although the Google model was born late, it is closer to the original purpose of the IT industry. For a long time, I am afraid the biggest value of it is still serving other industries and adding value to it. In fact, this is the foundation of the concept of software as a service.

When the value of the software itself is much less than the value that can be obtained in [subsequent use], the software will be free of charge. A service can be used in the future. However, if the service is simply understood as after-sales support, it may be wrong. It can be inferred from this that the more professional the software is, the more difficult the software with a small number of users is to be free, because the subsequent derivative value of this software is difficult to exceed the software itself. The rise of the Google model actually implies the fact that the user base of software is gradually expanding.

If we assume that the individual in society is becoming richer and richer, rather than getting poorer, then the individual's needs will inevitably become richer and richer. The expansion of user groups and the regionalization of personal needs will eventually lead to the first Development Trend of software: the scale of the software industry will tend to increase rather than decrease, the software itself will also tend to be complex rather than simple, and software changes will tend to be frequent rather than slow.

At the same time, the internal characteristics of the software determine that the dependence of the software on people cannot be greatly reduced in a short time. The higher the flexibility requirement on the software, the higher the dependence on people.

The above two trends determine that the software industry's requirements for personnel tend to increase rather than decrease, and the requirements for skills also tend to increase rather than decrease.

In terms of personnel supply, the labor cost in developed countries is relatively high, while that in developing countries is relatively cost-effective.

The above factors will have a profound impact on the future of the software industry, which will be reflected in:

The first trend is that each stage tends to be integrated rather than clearly divided.

We can clearly define the development model and the stages of development, such as requirement analysis, Specification Description, design, and coding. However, the more links, the slower the speed, and the worse the customer satisfaction. Therefore, the ideal situation is that programmers directly encode the code based on requirements and then release the code.

The second trend is directly related to the first one: the programmer's functions tend to be richer and richer, rather than more single.

Programmers must assume various roles, such as requirement analysis, specification setting, design, and encoding, rather than coding. The best team is that everyone in the team is a versatile team. It should be noted that this judgment is totally different from the software factory. If the software factory is correct, this judgment is completely false.

The third trend is that outsourcing will continue to become popular in the foreseeable future. As for the current situation, the more developed countries have software requirements, the human resources advantages of developing countries cannot be ignored in order to cope with these needs and seek a balance between cost and income.

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