Mr Zhou's speech was read too much to raise interest rates or stay on the sidelines

In Thursday (September 9), a A-share dive, the market is rife interest rate hike, and said that the central bank will raise interest rates on the weekend, two reasons: First, the central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan in public speech to mention the 0 interest rate abuses, the second is the National Bureau of Statistics in Saturday issued August macroeconomic data The logic of Mr Zhou's speech being overly interpreted as expected to raise interest rates since the CPI has been running for seven consecutive months over one-year deposit rates, real deposit rates have fallen to negative levels, and the CPI is expected to continue to rise in August, with the central bank likely to raise interest rates, in conjunction with the recent two-year central bank's habit of announcing major decisions on weekends or holidays,　　Saturday early release of data just set aside the time to raise interest rate window, if the September 13 again published data, the central bank can only wait next weekend.　　Rumours of a rise in interest rates in Friday were rife, and the NBS had to explain that the early release of data was at the request of the public to shorten the time between production and publication, "No other reason for us to read too much." Mr Zhou's speech was also too much read. What the hell did he say? What does it imply? The reporter happened to listen to Zhou's speech on the scene, September 9 at noon about 35 minutes of the speech, Zhou Xiaochuan did not directly talk about China's monetary policy, but in the early days of the financial crisis, the United States, Japan and other developed countries to stimulate the economy to zero interest rates, but financial institutions in the recovery period A 0 interest rate could lead to a weakening of the bank's services to the real economy "because the savings cost of a commercial bank is zero if it drops to zero, leading to a lack of pressure on banks to lend."　　Thus, Mr Zhou hinted at a hint of interest rate hikes. The central bank's biggest concern is inflation today, which, of course, is expected to be dashed.　　So what is the likelihood of a recent hike in terms of inflation and economic growth?　　The reality is that the central bank has no right to decide on major decisions such as interest rate hikes, and the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee, which serves as a deliberative body, simply provides policy advice, which ultimately allows the State Council to make decisions on factors such as inflation, asset prices, economic growth, exchange rate movements and international capital flows The central bank's biggest worry is inflation. According to the data published by the Bureau of Statistics, August price level is basically in line with expectations, CPI Rose 3.5% Year-on-year, the chain Rose 0.6%, mainly by vegetables and other food prices pushed higher. Most analysts believe that, with the flood and other abnormal weather factors to eliminate, food prices will stabilize downward, CPI will gradually fall in four quarters.　　In view of this, interest rate policy can continue to wait and see, even observers believe that there is no possibility of raising interest rates during the year. Inflation or a temporary shortfall, the housing market has not yet seen cooling is worrying. Data from the Bureau of Statistics is that August 70 large and medium-sized cities in the country housing sales prices rose 9.3% year-on-year, the chain and July flat.　　Market level, China real Estate Information group released data show that in the first week of September, Shanghai property prices rose, innovation 20-week new record. There is a little story to prove that the housing market investors are still a few. September 11, the reporter in the Chaoyang district Wangjing just sold out of the first foundingThe wind on the view of the community, see the intermediary, there are many of the real estate stock hanging out second-hand sale, the total price than the opening 100,000 to 300,000 yuan, so quickly changed hands is obviously not home buyers. The biggest worry for raising interest rates is the fear of throwing cold water on the real economy that is recovering. The beginning of the second half of the economic growth significantly lower, but also to discourage interest rate expectations.　　However, the real economy appeared to have seen a turnaround in August, with industrial growth picking up slightly year-on-year, the first rebound since the year, and better consumption and investment performance than expected. Still, policymakers are expected to wait for a while to see whether CPI will continue to climb or peak down, and the economic rebound will be temporary or stabilising. Source: New Express