Retail industry sees bottom in the first quarter and the recovery is worth looking forward to

Zhao Yang from the bustling situation of the mall, it seems hard to imagine that this is the second year since the global economic crisis erupted. "51" long holiday just the past week, the Ministry of Commerce has counted the year's small holiday sales figures. Business sales grew 9% per cent in the 51 quarter of this year, a figure less than 05-07 years in growth.　　The data has some negative impact, but from the analysis of most mainstream brokerage researchers, the retail industry in the first quarter to see the bottom of the signal has been more clear, supporting the two-quarter continued to rebound factors remain.　　Compared with other industries that have rebounded rapidly since November 2008, the value of retailing is still in a lower range, with a higher margin of safety and, in the context of an industry recovery, the return and promotion of valuations is worth looking forward to. Research data: A clear improvement in the first quarter Haitong securities through the study pointed out that the 2009-year China's total retail sales of consumer goods 2.94 trillion yuan, an increase of 15% per cent, excluding price factors, the actual growth rate accelerated by 3.6%. The first quarter of 2008 was a quarter of a very high nominal consumption base, and even the impact of snow storms on parts of the region and on commodity consumption in the early part of the year was largely released during the snowstorm months. The slowdown in the consumer boom may be just a short cycle, and the long-term determinants of China's consumption growth have not changed.　　Thanks to the increase of industrial concentration, the exertion of intensive effect and the improvement of incentive mechanism and governance structure, the composite growth rate of leading enterprises in the future retail industry is expected to reach 20% or even higher level. From the earnings growth of 41 retail A-share companies, 2008-year operating income rose by 19.27%, the growth rate was slightly lower than in 2007, of which 08 1-3-quarter year-on-year growth of 24.44%, year-on-year growth of 1.44%, four-quarter year-on-year growth of only 4.07%, Fell by 11.79% in the first quarter of 07, with 40 retail A-share companies growing 3.47% per cent in the first quarter of 2009, while total profits and net profits attributable to the parent company rose by 2.92% and 4.77% respectively over the same period, excluding net income from the investment　　The parent company's net profit growth rate reached 5.86%, compared with the four quarter of 08, 21.63% of the net profit growth, 09 year first quarter of the company's situation improved significantly. Sustainability factors remain as mentioned earlier, we have seen a significant recovery in most industry companies in the first quarter, but according to the Ministry of Statistics, its monitoring of the national key large retail sales growth in March to 8.12%, compared with the same period last year, the growth rate of a larger decline,　　If there is no problem with the statistics, what are the factors underpinning the two-quarter industry's continued recovery? CICC pointed out that in April, the sales rebound of some companies, the rapid growth of the industry in the 51 period is a sign that the retail and brand apparel sector investment opportunities have been enhanced by "recovery expectations"Turned to "an increasingly clear trend of recovery". The driving factor is: After the brakes of consumer confidence and buying behavior, consumers feel the stability of economic operation, and begin to stabilize their mentality and purchase goods. department stores, brand clothing as a fashion lifestyle and consumption of the typical representative, can better benefit from the recovery of consumption.　　Unlike supermarkets and household appliances, the popularity of consumption, department stores and brand clothing is a typical consumption upgrade, especially in the economic stability after the sales will be significantly restored. In addition, 51 of holidays, some mainstream department stores and brand apparel companies in the same store growth to double digits also reflects the performance recovery signs: Guangzhou friendship, Yintai, won 30% of sales revenue growth, hundred shares, Hefei department store, Wangfujing, Ginza and other companies revenue growth of 20%, some companies have discounted sales　　, but due to the adjustment of commodity structure and average label price rise, gross margin can be basically flat.　　Focus on underestimating the company although the retail sector of the relevant companies have risen, but the P/E and early gains generally lower than many cyclical industry companies, there is still a certain amount of replenishment requirements. CICC recommended the Guangzhou friendship of less than 25 times times, Hefei department Store (000417), seven Wolves (002029), the city net rate is below 2.5 times times The Hundred Shares (600631), the big business Shares (600694), the high asset value makes it has the unique superiority in the Chinese retailer; And the hundred shares belong to the World Expo concept of New Worlds (600628), Yuyuan Mall (600655) and other companies, valued at about 25 times times the Eurasian Group (600697), Xinhua department Store (600785), Guang Hundred Shares (002187), Wangfujing (600859), also deserves attention.