Limitations of Game Theory (Game Theory tricks)

 

Two sons and sons were on their way, and suddenly ran a big black dog from a household, yelling at them. The son was so scared that he quickly hid behind his father. His father told him: "You can rest assured that it won't bite you. Have you ever heard of the phrase "the dog does not bite ?" After hearing this, my son grabbed his father's shirt tightly and said in a trembling voice, "I have heard of this sentence, but I cannot be sure whether the dog has heard of it ."

 

This conversation is ridiculous because the son treats the "dog without biting" as a human dog and determines the basis of the strategy. Such inferences are naturally incorrect.

 

But behind this joke. we can find that our son's words contain an understanding of the well-known incomplete theorem of Godel: any theoretical system must be incomplete, any theory includes neither true nor false. The best description of the world may be its own, but as Mrs Robinson says: "A map of scale is useless ."

 

The same applies to game theory. For example, one of the basic assumptions of game theory is that people are rational. Rational people refer to actors with the ability to make inferences. The purpose of Policy Selection is to maximize their own interests. In real life, people often make limited and rational decisions.

 

Because human energy and time are always limited, people cannot be completely rational, and they cannot grasp all knowledge and information. It is impossible for people to find all the information they need. On the other hand, it is also costly to search for information, which requires the greatest time, energy, and financial resources. The intention is to search for all information and attempt to make optimal decisions. Sometimes it is the most irrational action.

 

In fact, it is doomed to be futile to require game theory to fully portray the real world. As Professor enhard zerelteng said, "Game Theory is neither a therapy nor a prescription. It cannot help us win gambling. it cannot help us get rich through speculation, or help us win opponents in chess or cards. It doesn't tell you how much you should pay to buy things. This is a computer or dictionary task ."

 

Even so, humans have not yet found a better tool for thinking than game theory to describe the objective world of reality in a similar way. Just as imperfect mechanics are the philosophy and mathematics of Natural Science, game theory is the mechanics and mathematics of social science. Without Newton's mechanics, we cannot even understand the simplest physical phenomena: the same principle. Without game theory, I still cannot explain and analyze many real social phenomena.

 

In order to coordinate the contradiction between defects and reality, perhaps we should listen to the guidance of the game theory master rubystan: "A game model is an approximation of our concepts about reality, rather than an approximation of the objective description of reality."