When scouts encounter big data: How to accurately assess the value of Players

"How to accurately assess the value of a player ?" This is a problem that has plagued club managers for many years. Fortunately, big data analysis can help.

After the FIFA World Cup, the European League transfer market also started. Each year, a player transfer is indispensable for some major transactions. However, the high price does not necessarily bring real benefits to the team. failure cases are everywhere. Both the team and the players are a loss. "How to accurately assess the value of a player ?" This is a problem that has plagued club managers for many years.

From past experiences, even top European giants rely more on experience and intuition when selecting players. There is no technical content in this process. For this phenomenon, Paul boanas, Senior Manager of prozone sports, UK, said: "Over the past few years, clubs have always adopted this traditional draft approach,Objective data and information are not fully utilized throughout the process. The data they use is often the most basic information such as the number of goals, assists, and age. At most, the business gains are measured ."

However, this era is gone forever. According to boanas, a large number of clubs have used data analysis technology when selecting players, and various data inside and outside the stadium have played a key role in this process.

"Data allows the team to participate in a more rigorous and robust evaluation process to provide more valuable objective information for scouts," he said: "Scouts often come to the scene to watch 3-4 matches and draw a conclusion when observing players. However, such a decision-making process still has certain risks, this may be the best stage for players, and the value of players must be proven by long-term performance."

Prozone has a large amount of player data so that the club can obtain a player's long-term data, how he performs on the Court, and what help he can bring to the club. According to boanas, the club can compare the data of multiple Transfer targets and compare the data with the top stars in the same position to obtain the most accurate value evaluation based on their performance.

　　In addition to evaluating the player value based on historical data, some clubs also learn to use the data produced by wearable devices to gain more accurate insights. Boden Westover, marketing director of catapult sports, a wearable technology provider in Australia, said many teams evaluated the value of wearable devices by testing each player before the season. Some teams may even send devices to potential transfer targets so that they can wear the device during training every day and transmit the data back for reference.

With the continuous development of these sports data companies, the club will be able to explore the potential value of each player more deeply. John Coulson, Chief Expert of opta's football service department, said:"If we use the number of players as a benchmark for a forward player, we can know who is the best player without data analysis. However, in addition to numbers, we can also measure the importance of each goal. For example, a score from 1 to 0 is definitely more important than a score from 6 to 0. There is also the difficulty of scoring. For example, how do you score a goal? Is it a penalty? Any ball? Or do you want to take a shot or send a single knife to the meeting? These are important data standards ."

"Through all these analyses, this player's scoring ability can be obtained, not just his number of players. We can promote this method to other players, from passing the ball to force disconnection, to create a panoramic view of a player on the court, then, in combination with his age, experience, career curve, and other factors, demonstrate his true value."

Said Coulson.

In addition, the club will consider the potential commercial value of players in addition to the player's performance on the court. For example, how much of his reputation among fans is, how many jerseys can be sold, and whether the player can attract more advertising sponsors.

In this regard, a British company named orb finance designed a set of analysis tools to help club managers assess the commercial value of players. For example, after Bell transferred from spurs to Real Madrid, the software predicted that he would bring about 41 million of the club's shirt sales revenue in the next six years, this is nearly half of Bell's daily price transfer fee. In addition, ORB also predicts that if Bell's contribution to Real Madrid can reach the Spurs level (11.6% of the total number of players), then his market value will reach 94 million.

By generating such a forecast report, data analysis will undoubtedly play an important role in the future transfer market. Coulson warned that the transfer is a complicated process and it is also inseparable from the experience of scouts and coaches. Factors outside the stadium are also considered, such as the player's mother tongue, his communication skills, and his own personality issues. There are many talented players in the market, but personality is also one of the factors that determine success or failure.

"In fact, there are still many factors to consider, such as the medical records of players and whether they have taken prohibited drugs. Sometimes these are determined by experienced professionals. We cannot predict what kind of injury a player will suffer, but we can use data as a guide to reduce the transfer risk ." Said Coulson.

The evaluation of players is only the beginning of the transfer process, and the final transfer will be negotiated and negotiated by the two clubs. However, the value of data analysis has been increasingly reflected in the player transfer market. Such examples are also common in other sports fields.