10 major Brokerage institutions authoritative forecasts: A A-share profit opportunities in the second half

Our Financial Capital Department Ching Li Dongjie He Chunmei (internship) source | "Excellence" magazine June Issue 1500, no, 1200 points ... or 900 points.　　More than half a year ago, investors also deeply sink in the A-share market is not the bottom of the downward sentiment.　　The reason for continued short-selling is simple, because the global recession caused by the financial crisis will be as depressed as it was in 1929, and even China, which is still able to sustain high growth, will suffer badly, not to mention the urgent need for a major structural adjustment in the Chinese economy itself.　　The market is always born in despair. After the government repeatedly bailed out, the dismal economic data for the 2008-year period was narrowed and repaired in the first four months of 2009.　　Signs of warmer growth are clearer in the capital markets, with the Shenzhen Component index, for example, that has risen by 60% per cent in January this year, or up to 80% since the low of 5,577 at the end of last October. From Shenzhen, Shanghai, the level of trading volumes observed, since February this year, the average monthly turnover level of the stock market than the 2007 Great bull market Average monthly turnover.　　Clearly, behind this round of cash-fuelled quotes is investor confidence in capital market expectations and economic expectations. What happens next in the year of 2009? Will the first rally in capital markets be a preview of the real economic recovery?　　Has the A-share market put an end to bear markets and into a new bull market? Will it all evolve in the light of our optimistic expectations?　　CITIC Securities forecast: The market has no reason to return to a bad state, the second half of the stock market rise should be the highest limit of 3,000 points near. Big market capitalisation stock will rise dictate | Citic Securities chief strategy analyst in Military source | June issue of the Journal of Excellence now everyone generally judged the economic situation in 2010 to be better than 2009 years, so there is no reason for the capital market to return to a bad state.　　We believe that the current a-share market is a new round of the first stage of the bull is more likely. In terms of the recent a-share market, the adjustment will not be too large, because people's expectations of the economy are relatively high, the policy is constantly stimulated, liquidity is also abundant, these three supporting factors did not change significantly. But when there is a significant change in these three factors, there is a greater adjustment.　　For example, the list of listed companies are expected to be poor, so the market parties to the quarterly response is not strong, but if the report is still relatively poor, the market will have a reaction.　　At present, the economic situation should be very clear at the end, so this year the stock market is likely to form a "U"-type trajectory, the second half of the market is more likely to shock upward, if the market established, will evolve into a round of the overall bull market. We think that the so-called bull or bear market, in fact, is to explore the big market value of stocks rose or not up, now small market stocks have reflected the state of the bull market, but those big market shares have not reflected, the increase is very small. NotLet's talk about whether the market is up or down, which is to discuss whether these big market stocks are going up or down, like ICBC or PetroChina. In the process of gradual confirmation of economic recovery, these large market capitalisation stocks will likely go up, which will drive the index upwards.　　But because the macroeconomic recovery is not so simple, domestic and foreign economic situation is more complex, industrial policy, regional policy, etc. is not uniform change, so the A-share market will be a shock upward process, the second half of the market rise in the maximum limit should be near 3,000 points.　　2009 listed companies will have a small increase in performance than the 2008-year performance, according to the month or quarter trend, will be a former low after high situation. Overall, in the second half of the year we continue to bullish "cycle + Finance" category of listed companies investment opportunities.　　From supply demand price elasticity see price rise space, crude oil, copper, iron ore and other upstream resources prices increase the largest space; from the inventory cycle to see the order of the recovery of the industry, mainly for consumption, energy commodities, industrial products, infrastructure, intermediate materials; From a liquidity perspective, we are bullish on securities, insurance, banking and other financial sectors.　　Guotai Securities Forecast: The basic certainty is that we should have entered the right side of the market lows, the capital market will continue to rise for some time.　　Falling Space Limited Oral | Guotai Securities Institute Executive vice director Tan Xiaoyu Source | The June issue of the first quarter GDP will be the lowest in China's recession since the subprime crisis, and a quarterly rebound in the economy will be a big probability. The rebound in economic data is clearly driven by investment, but it could lead to more overcapacity in the future.　　The overall recovery of China's economy is awaiting a global recovery. From the overall trend of capital markets, the strength to continue to rise in the future is stronger. Last November to the beginning of March this year, China's a-share market, such as the government to expand the currency, the introduction of 4 trillion investment, coupled with the sharp rate cut after November, and other policies driven by a wave of independent market, is a fund-driven rise. Of course, the Chinese market also has its own characteristics, such as speculative speculation atmosphere is very strong. However, compared with foreign enterprises and financial institutions, Chinese enterprises and financial institutions are generally relatively healthy, the balance sheet does not appear too big problems, so can get out of the independent market. [Page] Now, it may be that many people are starting to worry about inflation again, because after so much credit is put in place, it is possible that inflation will quickly happen once the economy continues to rebound.　　In the short term, China's economy is still very much affected by the external economy, exports this a large decline, and the pressure of overcapacity, so we believe that inflation in this year is less likely to happen. Overall, the economy is now at the bottom of this round of economic adjustment, the macroeconomic and stock market has been a departure. But the basic certainty is that we should have reached the right side of the market lows, and the capital markets will continue tocontinued to rise for some time.　　Volatility in the second half of the stock market is positive, but as the economy moves better, the capital markets will get more substantial support, with limited space to fall. In addition, if the economy starts to pick up, the expected performance of listed companies will gradually improve, thus forming a support for the overall market valuation.　　However, the global economy began to revive to truly launch a new bull market, the current performance of the stock market is more rebound, lack of sustained rise in fundamental support.　　In such a macroeconomic context, industries such as finance and real estate will have more opportunities in the future.　　China Galaxy Securities Forecast: At present, although it may also be high innovation, but rational analysis, and then to increase the space is relatively limited, and the strength of the push is weakening.　　Not far from the top of the market. Dictation | Qin Xiaobin source of China Galaxy Securities Chief Strategy Analyst | The June issue of the Journal of Excellence the macro economy must have bottomed out now, but the rebound is not necessarily strong, we predict will be a "L" type of recovery trajectory, which is a relatively long time concept.　　This year, in terms of quarterly macroeconomic growth, which may have a base last year, we don't think the real economy is going to change that much, or even more than many people expect.　　For the Chinese stock market, it is now possible to establish a lower 1600 point of the early adjustment is a big bottom, the bottom to want to go back is very difficult.　　The momentum of this round of the market is mainly the economic rebound, the release of excess liquidity, coupled with strong policy stimulus, leading to a trend in the market changes, but when it can be restored to the level of 2007 is difficult to say.　　According to the current situation, this round of the top should not be too far, and then to increase the space is limited, and the strength of the push is also weakening, unless the economic situation has significantly improved and beyond the expectations of people, otherwise it will be a concussion of the city.　　Of course, the rise of the stock market is sometimes not entirely supported by economic fundamentals, but also emotional factors. The impact of the financial crisis on the performance of listed companies is very large, the first quarter of this year and the same period last year, still fall by more than 20%, is expected to two quarterly results or the first three quarters of this year compared to the same period last year, the performance is not too good.　　We believe that the overall loss face of the listed companies in 2009 may increase, of course, depending on how the economy is going in the second half. In the second half of the investment, and 4 trillion investment closely related infrastructure industry will have some opportunities, such as cement, construction machinery, construction and other industries listed companies can be concerned about. At present, China's manufacturing industries such as overcapacity is more serious, demand this piece has not been able to make much improvement.　　Therefore, we believe that the level of earnings of listed companies will be much worse than in previous years, which has been reflected in some companies.　　Credit Securities forecast: China's economy has gone through the "V" type of the bottom, and has been transferred to the right side of the process, the economy two of the possibility of a dip is getting smaller. "V" type reversal Dictation | Gao Shanwen Source | The June issue of the Journal of Excellence with the introduction of a series of economic data, at the economic level, the current Chinese economy has gone through the "V" type of the bottom, and has turned to the right upward process, the economy two of the possibility of a dip is becoming smaller; at the market level,　　Our view is that the rise in the market needs and is likely to evolve from a single liquidity push to a common push for liquidity and profitability. The key to achieving this transition is the gradual effect of fiscal stimulus, the real estate market to achieve a comprehensive recovery, and to stimulate domestic demand for the restoration.　　Such a transition seems to be happening, but it may require further observation and confirmation.　　Throughout the world, the major central banks have adopted loose monetary policy, and the underlying currency has exploded, but the risk of inflation remains relatively small for the foreseeable future. The reason is three very obvious facts: one is that global credit markets have not yet returned to normal, and the credit supply and creation process is still very inactive due to the capital pressures of banks, and the second is that there has been a very severe overcapacity in the manufacturing and service sectors around the world, coupled with continuing pressure from the US to leverage Even if America and the global economy are to recover in the future, the trend is bound to be relatively weak, leading to a longer period of excess capacity elimination and a serious labour surplus in the global labour market, which should not be fundamentally changed in the foreseeable future,　　It is even more unlikely that the labour market is in short supply, leading to a continuous sharp rise in wages.　　In this economic context, investment rebounded from the current level, mainly thanks to fiscal stimulus, the future may further benefit from the housing market rebound, but this is destined to focus on domestic demand-oriented industries, focusing on less-than-globalized industries such as coal, cement, electricity, transportation, logistics, construction and so on. Security forecasts: Inflation is a theme for the second half of the year.　　The move from deflation to inflation will put the stock market at its best this year. Bounce space will be more than expected dictation | The chief strategy analyst Soup Niche Source | The June issue of "Excellence" magazine in small Shenyang "not bad money" to ridicule the trend of the stock market this year: the first half of life is very painful, what is it? The economy is not good yet, but stocks have risen so much. The second half of life is more painful, what is it? You do see that the economy is really starting to start, but stocks are not going up again.　　But also must fall some, even has to lose the money, the life is more painful. As for the overall view of China's economy, we are still optimistic about the performance of the stock market this year, we think the third quarter is critical. [Page] to judge whether the economic situation has improved, the pilot industry is an important indicator of the boom.　　For now, the recovery of cars and real estate has been preliminarily identified. We believe that the macro situation this year does not fully explain the performance of the stock market. Stock market and macro-operation is deviated, the real economy is still recovering, overall, still very poor. So last year toThe rally is a rebound from the separation of the macroeconomic and stock markets, and the rebound is still large, a structural bull market. The driving force behind this structural bull market is the judgment that the economy is recovering, the liquidity problem and the large influx of low-interest credit into the stock market.　　As a result, the rally is a typical post-crisis cash-fuelled stock rally. Inflation is a theme in the second half. As deflation moves towards inflation, the stock market is in the best shape. To win inflation, people must invest.　　In a situation where the real economy is not enough to attract more money, the stock market will rebound more space than most people expect. The second half of the stock market may rely on the 2300 to 2,400 points of the next track to launch the market, height is expected 2700 to 2,800 points, and this wave of rise to break the probability of 3,000 points is also relatively large. Of course, risk may occur around three quarters.　　After three quarters, the stock market will adjust again, at this time we need to see whether the enterprise profit can follow up, and then meet the straddling market. Steadily, the second half of the market may be focused on inflation. Theme City concept will be more active.　　From the industry point of view, more likely to focus on the consumer sector, including food, beverages, liquor, supermarkets, of course, including real estate.　　Haitong Securities Forecast: The second half of the market may not be as active as the first half. Or will reproduce 1998 "W" at the end of dictation | The Chen Lu of the chief analyst of Haitong Securities | The June issue of the Journal of Excellence in part, the five-month rally is underpinned by two major factors: strong policies and loose liquidity.　　From the point of view of credit funds, if the expected monthly increase in the amount of credit over the first quarter gradually fall, its momentum will weaken.　　Therefore, it can be expected that the second half of the market is likely to be less active than the first half.　　In view of the two quarter, the decline in exports will be slow, domestic consumption growth will remain strong, investment growth remains high, and monetary policy will continue to remain loose, we are not very pessimistic 2009 China's economic performance is expected to reach 7.8% of the annual growth rate.　　But the end of the "hard landing" does not mean that China's economy will return to potential levels of growth, and that China's economy still faces many uncertainties. On the one hand, the current economic warming is closely related to the inventory, and the recovery of terminal demand is quite limited. Price is the direct expression of supply and demand relationship, both PPI and CPI are continuing negative growth. In terms of industrial electricity consumption and the added value of industrial industries, the overall industrial production has not improved significantly.　　The economy may face the risk of another recession after a short rebound, or a 1998-year "W" bottoming; On the other hand, the 2002-2007 honeymoon growth is unlikely to be in 3-5 years until the Chinese economy finds new growth points, such as the 2001 accession to the WTO. As far as investment is concerned, there is a great deal ofWorry。 From the investment direction, if the investment focus on the supply side adjustment, that is, the reduction or reduction of backward production capacity, technical transformation and other promotion of structural upgrading of the behavior, investment growth is no worries. But the evidence is not enough to justify the logic that government investment is more of a simple expansion of capacity.　　While this can boost short-term economic performance, there is no way to change China's economy from outside. In this context, we think that these areas may be more opportunities in the second half of the year: Technology innovation-related industries, such as new energy, biomedicine and other related industries, such as railway construction, railway equipment and electrical equipment, regional economic benefits sector, such as the Shanghai two centers to build related beneficiary companies,　　Bohai New district construction of related beneficiary companies, the Straits West Bank related beneficiary companies. The Yangtze River Securities forecast: The market future adjustment may be greater than the possibility of continuing to rise.　　However, even if the adjustment, the early 1600 points should also be a bottom. The possibility of adjustment intensified oral | Zhang Yi of the director of the Changjiang Securities Research Institute | The current economic data of the June issue of the Journal of Excellence although there is a glimmer of light, we must admit that the light is a little dazzling. The structural problems of economic growth have not been eased, while the characteristics of investment-driven economic growth have been strengthened.　　A 28.8% increase in investment in the first quarter, and a decline in corporate profits, is a good illustration of the problem.　　China's economic recovery, in the short term depends on the government's strong stimulus policy, can solve the thirst, but not to eliminate the foresight. Against this backdrop, the Shanghai Composite Index has rebounded nearly five months from 1664.93 points on October 28, 2008.　　We believe that this round of a-share market rebound on the one hand, the economic bottom of the advance response, on the other hand is the result of liquidity. To sum up, the market future adjustment may be greater than the possibility of continuing to rise.　　However, even if the adjustment, the early 1600 points should be a bottom, because this point is in the global financial market is precarious, the domestic economy began to fall sharply, investors expect the extreme deterioration of the situation. But for now, the economic environment and corporate fundamentals that drive the real strength of the market are not yet available, and the market needs to wait for more convincing data or signals in the region to start a new bull market.　　So it is premature to talk about the start of a new bull market.　　However, the recent CPI and PPI there is a larger "scissors", the cost of business management and environmental relief, if the demand side can be further recovered, the new round of the basic foundation of the market. We judge this year's stock market by the policy influence more, hot spots more, hot spot conversion is also more frequent. New Energy, health reform, 4 trillion investment, regional key projects have been sought after by the market, to determine a continuous strengthening of the plate is not easy. [Page] Comparatively speaking, we think that whether it is the economic stimulus plan with the appearance of currency, or the industrial revitalization planning or regional economic hotspot,Whether the rich market level or the enrichment of the trading variety, will bring more business opportunities for the entire securities industry, so the securities industry will be a continuing benefit of the plate.　　Southwest Securities Forecast: The second half of the year, if the economic situation worsened further, and accompanied by large-scale lifting of the set of the show, 1600 points can not be seen as a bottom.　　Or will innovate low dictation | Coupling beams source of the chief strategy analyst of Southwest Securities | The June issue of Excellence Magazine due to some uncertainties, the current a-share market can only be seen as a rebound, the height of up to 10%, that is, 2700, 2,800 points. Dynamic valuations are not yet clear, but static valuations are already high from a quarterly listing of listed companies, unable to support the continuation of the rally.　　In the second half of the year, if the economic situation worsens further and accompanies the large-scale lifting of the ban, 1600 points can not be seen as a bottom, there is the possibility of penetrating this point. In the first four months of this year, the economic growth of the quarter-on-quarter data, can only be said to be a worsening of the trend to alleviate, but with the elevation of the comparison base, the chain of data will face a big challenge.　　Therefore, we think that the Chinese economy to maintain "L" type will be a longer trend. The economic judgment led us to believe that the A-share market is now in an area of high valuations and is likely to return to 2000 points in nearly three months.　　Three months later, the improvement of the external environment is an important factor, if this factor can not be set up, our own industrial structure adjustment is slow, the main economic data and listed companies financial data may have a negative effect, it is possible A shares will create a new low. 2009, the performance of listed companies will remain a downward trend, the number of loss-making enterprises will be more obvious, which can be seen from the quarterly.　　The first quarter is more than 400 listed companies losses, and the annual report of only 200, estimated that the end of this year, the loss of enterprises will also be around 400. Non-cyclical industries may perform well in the second half of the year.　　If the world is to put money on their own, once stagflation, then the resources listed companies will be better performance.　　Overall, the second half of this year's a-share market risk two: Outside the market factor is the economic level of factors, the market factor is the "non-" of the lifting of the board and the main board market IPO launch.　　Northeast Securities Co., Ltd. Forecast: Shanghai will be 2300-2700 points as the value center, on the basis of the recovery of market confidence and generate about 30% of the premium. Within 3,000 o ' hour. The director of the Northeast Securities Finance and Industrial Research Institute Shing Source | How does the June issue of the Journal of Excellence judge the economic recovery? First of all, it should be the increase of social revenue and the steady increase of the income level of the residents. But now, the revenue is still falling, the income of residents although statistics show that the growth of about 11%, social employment pressure is still very large; there's aThe problem is, although the first indicator is up, but we also see that the macro-economic exports are falling, prices are falling, business economic benefits are also falling, in fact, at this point in time the various data does not form a consistent rise in frequency, but also more chaotic. In fact, this is also because a lot of things we do not understand. For example, our investment, in order to protect economic indicators do not decline to choose some projects focused on investment, but we have to choose the timing of investment there are some places to consider? for example, to stimulate real estate to stabilize the economy, China's real estate needs to prosper, but at what price level,　　We do not have a basic judgment, does it deviate from the original intention of safeguarding the livelihood of the people?　　So it's a bit far-fetched to judge the obvious recovery now, because we may still face some downside risks in the economic recovery process. For a-share market, we believe that the current trend will continue for some time, because in the economic recovery and low interest rates, including real estate, asset prices are willing to go up.　　Therefore, this round of oversold rally is likely to directly into the performance support of the steady market, of course, there is still an index to create a rebound in new highs, with a wave back to the general process of economic fundamentals. Specific to the index of judgment, we judged at the beginning of the Shanghai market will be 2300-2700 points as the value hub, on the basis of the recovery of market confidence to produce about 30% of the premium.　　In other words, within 3,000 o ' hour we are expected. If the early stage is completely oversold rebound plus the expected rebound in economic recovery, then it has completed its mission, not to say 1664 to 2,600 points or a big bear market oversold rebound.　　Perhaps the economy may also be repeated under some factors, but the market is the beginning of a new round of bull.　　Overall, we remain optimistic about the second half of the market, liquidity and low interest rates may conceal some uncertainties, each fall is a good time to buy, for oil, steel, finance, real estate and consumer industries listed companies can pay more attention to.　　China Gold Securities Forecast: April to October, the stock market is difficult to see a significant rise. Non-cow non-bear concussion rise dictate | Gold rock provenance of National Gold Securities chief Economist | The June issue of the Journal of Excellence we draw the stock market of this year to a low level between two high schools, the first quarter is high, mainly from the financial and emotional side of the interaction. In the middle section, the stock market may be reduced substantially, mainly due to liquidity recovery and policy cooling, the end of the year may be a fundamental drive, which is our entire market this time a "cornucopia" curve.　　According to the recent stock market adjustment, we believe that the second half of the market will be close to 2,500 points as the backbone, around it for positive and negative 15%-20% shocks. In fact, we cannot judge whether the market is a bear or a bull, but define it as a concussion city, non-bovine bear, earthquakeSwinging up. Therefore, the second half of the market may be close to 2,500 points as the backbone, around it for positive and negative 15%-20% shocks. [Page] from the current economic data, the rapid decline in the early stage of the economy has ended, while the expansionary macro-control policy has obviously taken effect.　　But it is a little early to judge that economic adjustment has bottomed out. Next, what are the external factors that might affect the stock market? At home, we need to focus on three events: whether fundamentals are weakened, whether liquidity is recycled, and whether policy is cooling. At the moment, the central bank's move to recycle liquidity has begun.　　Therefore, we believe that the stock market is hard to see a significant rise between April and October. There are three characteristics of Chinese stock market: First, the emotional characteristics, the second is the policy characteristics, and the third is strong growth. Continuous high growth and continuous high valuations are synchronized. In this sense, the future market is likely to challenge the reasonable overvaluation of the ceiling, it does not represent the real value of the market, but the expectations of high growth in the future, especially for high inflation expectations, driving the Chinese stock market is a reasonable overvaluation, or even unreasonable overvaluation.　　Our judgment on the performance of the 2009 listed companies is overall pessimistic, but the overall performance of the stock market this year is optimistic. In this situation, all industries are facing opportunities in the 2009. Among them, our first focus on cyclical industry to participate in cyclical economic recovery, followed by the focus on state-owned monopoly industry participation in the country, the third focus on policy-driven industries. If we use these three indicators to see the dominant state-owned industries, it is concluded that the industries associated with railways, highways and machinery will be the choice for investment opportunities and growth this year.