15 institutions forecast March CPI rise 4.8%

"Financial network," reporter Hu Junying March 2, reporters to 15 institutions on the March macroeconomic indicators of the forecast survey, the survey showed that March CPI average year-on-year growth of 4.8%, compared with the true value of January fell 0.1%. Inflationary pressures to suspend input-type inflationary pressures need to be wary of the 2010 inflation situation unexpectedly, hitting record highs.　　CPI rose 4.9% per cent year-on-year in January 2011, with March survey data showing a slowdown in inflationary pressures. Ping An securities fixed income research director Benji says inflationary pressures have eased.　　Although the CPI will remain high in the last two months, this is due to the spring factor and the low base of the first quarter last year, the new price factor will gradually decline. The recent rise in international commodity prices and the pressure of imported inflation have raised concerns. Wei Fengchun, Chief macro analyst at Citic Investment, said the impact on oil prices would continue for a long time, even if geopolitical risks were manageable.　　The short-term impact on China's inflation is small, but it will have a greater impact on long-term inflation trends.　　In addition, Dr. Deng Yusung, Market Economics Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that to pay close attention to the food situation, if the food situation is better, inflation will be better. Deposit reserve ratio continued to raise the currency, the survey showed that the end of March M2 year-on-year growth average of 17.1%, compared with the real value of January reduced by 0.1%.　　Citic Securities (600030.SH) Senior macro analyst Sun Yuqun said, because of the base reason, the year M2 year-on-year growth rate is lower, but actually still high.　　He said credit controls would be tight in the first quarter and expected the M2 to remain in a downward trend, with the possibility of raising the reserve requirement ratio by 3 April. Deng Yusung also said that because of the base reason and the effect of credit control appeared, M2 early fall, but the actual absolute amount of increase is still relatively high.　　The future M2 will be kept to a moderate level. Chengmanjiang, managing director and research director of BOC International, said that due to seasonal factors, loans will fall in 2 March, the banking system after the return of normal, after March M2 will decline, but she believes that in monetary policy regulation, deposit reserve ratio will be more cautious, the use of frequency will be slowed,　　In the past one months or even 2 times, the future may become 2 months. The first quarter or a single month deficit due to seasonal factors, import and export data rose sharply in January.　　The results of the survey on import and export indicators showed that imports rose 26.6% in March, and exports grew 29.1% per cent year-on-year. Deng Yusung In a telephone interview, said that because of international commodity prices, the international economic situation in a stable growth phase and China's higher proportion of resource imports, to some extent, will promote import growth.　　As the Spring Festival factor weakens and disappears, import growth is falling but still high. On the export side, Deng Yusung said that, given the cardinal reasons and the inertia of the return of trade, and the continued existence of China's export competitive advantage, exports are expected to remain relatively high. ButHe also said he would not rule out the possibility of a deficit in individual months. Chengmanjiang said that the seasonal factors make January import and export data anomalies, February due to the Spring festival holiday, enterprises do not work, will still affect the volume of trade, do not rule out the possibility of a deficit in February.　　Therefore, one-month trade data is not comparable and should focus on the overall quarterly data.　　She also expects exports to grow by about 25% per cent, while the surplus will be less than 2010 due to higher oil prices.　　In addition to the rise in international commodity prices, Sun Yuqun said the impact will not be too big in the short term.　　The agencies involved in the investigation include Securities, Bank of China (601988.SH,03988.HK), Everbright Securities (601788.SH), Haitong Securities (600837.SH), Guotai Securities, security securities, Ping An securities, Wanguo, the Development Research Center of the State Council and other well-known domestic institutions. (Stock market weekly Feeds) "Author:" Financial network of the article "reporter Hu Junying"