3,000 o ' worries, no foresight.

Source: Internet
Author: User
Keywords Valuation level Prev Growth Stock fund market divergence
Tags a-share market continue economic economic recovery economy get ipo listed
IPO restart after the Shanghai and Shenzhen market shocks intensified, but the markets still maintain upward trend and on 1st stood 3,000 points.  In this regard, many funds generally believe that the market has worries but no foresight. Signs of recovery strengthened in the first half, the A-share market witnessed and partly reflected the fact and expectation that China's economy was the first to bottom and a strong recovery. There have been some fluctuations in China's economic recovery in April, but the recovery in May has been strong again, industrial production has rebounded to its highest level since September 2008 and is expected to show a more visible recovery in June. Some funds say they have unconfirmed news that fixed-investment growth in June will hit record highs.  And for the future growth of fixed assets investment, the Fund generally think that can still maintain high, for three reasons: first, the real estate land development investment reverse upward; second, the new project investment to maintain rapid growth; In addition, local government investment began to start. Under the background of strong economic recovery and ample liquidity, the Paris fund believes that the long-term trend towards a better market has not changed. A loose monetary policy that promotes economic growth in the country will continue, in the long-term low interest rate environment, will be conducive to promoting investment, reduce enterprise costs, improve profitability, a large number of new projects will continue to invest in investment, and fade performance, the advancement of urbanization process and the increase of wealth effect, further promote investment and consumption. And exports, observed that the export quarter chain data has improved, there has been the bottom of the situation, with the U.S. economy in the four quarter stabilisation, can expect the second half of the economic pull will gradually reflect the export.  On this basis, the Fund generally agreed that China's economy in the next few quarters will still be a strong rebound in 2009, the net profit of listed companies is expected to increase, especially in the four quarter may be more obvious. In addition, from the liquidity point of view, the current economic liquidity is mainly from: The government's new loans, business deposits and household savings demand three. The figures show that the balance of household savings deposits is declining, purchasing power and investment power are being released, and demand deposits in M1 have accelerated in recent months, so the liquidity situation will remain in the second half.  The central bank will continue to set the next phase of monetary policy as a moderately loose, emphasizing the continuity and stability of the policy and guide the rational growth of monetary credit. Performance-driven market but as the stock index continues to climb, prev site 3,000 sensitive areas, market differences are also gradually increasing. In the short term, the market is facing a certain adjustment pressure, valuation, performance, capital and other factors will inhibit the market upward expansion of the space. And the level of valuation has always been the focus of many disputes between the two sides, the current industry average PE29 times, there is a structural overvaluation. With the imminent disclosure of the listed companies, the micro-level profitability can keep up with greater uncertainty.  Although the intention of the policy helps the IPO to start smoothly is more obvious, but the IPO restart is bound to divert funds, may cause the two level market capital surface fluctuation. However, the imminent disclosure of the listed company semi-annual report is expected to lead the market from the valuationDriven by the return performance drive, the fund also advises investors on the basis of semi-annual data, focus on growth with certainty, good fundamentals, and profit-exceeding expectations of the industry, to grasp the structural investment opportunities.  For the next investment theme, Cao Jianfei, a Growth equity fund manager for Agriculture and banking, said that if the economy were to recover fully, banks, real estate, coal, and nonferrous industries would benefit from a full economic recovery. If the economy does not fully recover, then a loose currency could lead to a near-stagflation environment. So it may be a good choice to have a relatively inexpensive consumer sector at the moment.
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