A-share market will withstand the "triple-Time" test

Securities Times reporter Tongyaping for this week's market, the biggest event is the State Council announced the implementation of state-owned shares in the domestic securities market policy, thereby opening up a new chapter in China's securities market.　　For the current a-share, the biggest change is at the same time facing the full circulation of the times, the new institutional era, the advent of the era of globalization!　　Analysts pointed out that if we ignore the changes in the times and its impact, then there may be a major failure in the market's overall study, and can not explain the share market in this round of rebound and development trajectory. Accept the arrival of the full circulation era should be seen, the state implementation of state-owned shares of the policy, is to continue to enter the full circulation of a share of the road paving. In other words, from the Jinzhan to the social security transfer, it shows the state's determination and confidence in the full circulation. June 2006 stock reform restricted shares began to lift the ban, has been a full 3 years of time. With the share reform of the first 31 heavy workers opened the full circulation prologue, the current a-share full circulation listed companies up to more than 250. On June 19, 2006, the Chinese industry international listed in the Shenzhen Stock exchange, declaring that China's equity market has entered the issue of new shares in the whole circulation after the "old and newly zoned". As the IPO date of 1-3 years, the original shareholder's restricted circulation shares will be listed in circulation. With the full circulation of the international industry, there will be a batch of new shares in the second half of 2009. By then, the share of the tradable shares will increase from the beginning of 30% to the end of 70%.　　Therefore, from the point of view of time, the choice of the June transfer policy, undoubtedly has a strong guiding role. On the other hand, the market has experienced a process of "panic" and "acceptance" to the lifting stock. People will not forget that last April, 31 heavy industry restricted shares to the lifting of the ban, the share price plunged 38%, and the end of last year, Haitong Securities began to lift the ban, its share price is a row of 3 consecutive stop plate ... The difference is that this May, the Pudong Bank, China Unicom, such as the lifting of the release and full circulation, its share price does not rise. Data show that, from the full circulation of more than 250 listed companies, the total capital of more than 1 billion shares of the company about 30, CCB, Baosteel, China Merchants Bank, Chinese unicom, such as the circulation of a shares in more than 9 billion shares, Wuliangye, Oriental Pearl, Shen Shares, deep high-speed, The size of the capital, such as Pudong Bank, is above 2 billion shares. This batch of weight blue-chip full circulation shares of the rise, become the market continues to rebound, and impact 2,700 points, 2,800 points, 2,900 points of the backbone. For a long time, the ban on restricted shares has always been considered a "constraint" of the market rise, and the rally has about 80% of the total circulation of listed companies, its increase over the same period of 60%, nearly half of the stock's rise is more than 100%.　　For the full circulation of misreading, this may be a large number of small investors run the main reason for the market.　　In short, the transfer policy is a new starting point, compared to the recognition of the size limit reduction problem, the renewal of a greater starting point is how the investors really in the consciousness to accept the arrival of the full circulation era. How to deal with the new institutional era why this round of rebound is hard to adjust? Why is the market often more divergent and the broader markets always on the rebound? Apart fromThe accepted monetary policy is loose, the liquidity is abundant and other external factors, in the market itself, is a a-share into full circulation under the new institutional era. The whole circulation has changed the market participation main body pattern. The size limit of the industrial capital to grasp the market value of 60%, while the fund, insurance, brokerage-oriented financial institutions investors holding market capitalisation accounted for only about 30%, the remaining 10% or so for small and medium-sized investors hold.　　Under this new institutional competition, the judgment of investment value has been added to the perspective of industrial capital, such as market valuation and resource valuation. The industry takes the Chinese securities market as the main part of the structure to date: the 1998 can be called the retail market; After 1998, with the Fund and other institutions of the development and expansion of the market into the institutional era, the participants to fund, brokerage, insurance, QFII and other institutional investors, called financial capital or market stock　　, and after 2008, with the completion of the share reform into the full circulation market, the leading position of financial capital to be located in industrial, and gradually enter the finance and industry leading the new institutional era of market. In the age of new institutions, the majority shareholder shares obtains the circulation right, because can enjoy the capital market unique pricing mechanism the benefit, may share the stock price rise to bring the income, is willing through the overall listing, the directional additional issue and so on the form, injects the high quality assets to the listed company, with the considerable net profit in the stock market bigger market　　The listed companies began to transform from the traditional tools of money-circle to the collector of high-quality assets in society. Analysts pointed out that the new institutional era, industrial capital in the two level of market activity will greatly increase, industrial capital mergers and acquisitions may become one of the characteristics of the market. In addition, large-volume trading provides effective liquidity to the market, and with the continuous increase in the number of listed companies in full circulation, for mergers and acquisitions to provide a better market environment, especially those who share a fragmented, market capitalisation of the company, more easily become the object of mergers and acquisitions, such as the Mao industry, Mayinglong, a large increase in the Antelope Sharp Holdings, On the real system of three companies, China Ping An acquisition of deep development.　　The rapid expansion of the industrial capital's feast is only the beginning, and it will be a strong thrust of the stock market recovery. Meet the challenge of the globalization era after China's entry into the WTO, the securities market and the international capital market is the inevitable trend, and the full circulation of equity is an important prerequisite for international integration. Full circulation under the era of globalization, the industrial capital of the big crocodile is absolutely a huge opportunity, mergers and acquisitions is a domestic rehearsal of the first drama. The play was staged in the west of capitalism in the early years, in Asia Tigers China Hong Kong, Taiwan region also staged, when Li Ka-shing's Yangtze River Industrial acquisition of the Kowloon Warehouse and then acquired Hutchison Whampoa, wrote the legend of that era, became Asia's richest man.　　Predictably, China will also emerge as a giant capital tycoon, enough to compete with Western predators. The globalization of capital market also helps to solve the high P/E problem that has plagued China's stock market. In recent years the Chinese stock market has been unfairly compared to the overseas market. Therefore, inThe low price distribution of foreign listed companies and the high P/E distribution in the domestic market have become a unique phenomenon of Chinese enterprises. In fact, it is unreasonable to compare the stock index of a shares reflecting the whole market with the elements of the listed companies ' elites. The most important index in the United States is the Dow Jones 30 Industrial Index, which is unlikely to fully reflect the overall price-earnings ratio of 13,000 only stocks across the US market.　　Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, which selects only 33 of the best companies in Hong Kong's stock market, does not accurately reflect the market conditions of thousands of listed companies. Analysts pointed out that the world's major market component index arithmetic average price-earnings ratio is mostly 15-35 times, and China's full circulation of new shares with the simulation of the index, the Dow, the S & P 500, the London financial 100, the arithmetic average P/e ratio is 30, 22, 33, 25 times times respectively.