A shares may be adjusted in the medium term

The author of the Galactic Securities Shanghai headquarters in Chengde last week continued to maintain a small attack on the market, but in Friday in the IPO expected to fall, 2,800 points lost.　　Plate, the bubble expected under the financial, real estate, non-ferrous metals, gold and other asset-like plate stronger than the market, but with the trend of commodity futures volatility. Looking back on the fundamental changes last week, the author believes that the IPO rules will be put into effect in the short term, and the market will be restrained once the IPO is clear. And China Ping An acquisition deep development will spur the further strengthening of blue chips.　　However, the May macroeconomic data to form the fundamental negative, will have a significant impact on future.　　IPO to tame liquidity flooding recently, especially last week, although the market generally agreed that the impact of the IPO is only psychological, but the A-share market was affected by the imminent opening of the IPO, which was reflected very well in the Friday decline. Many investors are nervous about new offerings, but in reality the current liquidity has become rampant, and IPOs are a means to tame liquidity. The recent rise in oil from 38 U.S. dollars to last week's 73 U.S. dollars, an increase of nearly one times, copper and other non-ferrous metals rose also very high, gold has returned to 1000 dollars/ounces near.　　Most of these phenomena are the "quantitative easing" monetary policy in the United States, where market interest rates have fallen to zero and a large number of currencies have been issued, and the market is flooded with low-cost funds to look for investment opportunities, while nonferrous metals, oil and gold are the arbitrage targets of such funds.　　According to the recent U.S. government's stance on monetary policy, the "quantitative easing" policy will continue into next year, so liquidity flooding is not the short-term can be concluded. But when IPOs began to affect short-term markets, the fall in Friday was directly linked to the launch of the market rumors IPO. This week's market forecasts are harder to predict because we can't make predictions about IPOs. But the Monday trend tells us that whenever there is a chance the market will seek to attack.　　So investors do not have to worry too much about the specific timetable for IPOs, since IPOs are more about opportunities than risks.　　But the author wants to remind, because the new stock issue way has already changed, its specific to the issue and the market performance before listing is one of our concerns.　　This week or so, we have repeatedly stressed the following view: The rebound from the 1664-point rally from small to large stocks, indicating that the market has come to the end of the stage, so the higher valuation of the risk is increasing. But from the valuation of H shares, the review of the value of the stock market is not over. This Monday, the banking sector still maintain a new high trend, which led to a rapid rebound in the market. Last week, when we analyzed the parity of H stock, we pointed out that, compared to H-shares, nonferrous metals, coal, oil and other market opportunities, banks, steel, insurance and other sectors have relative valuation advantages, it is worth focusing on. At present, from the market capital flow, banking stocks in the pulling stage, but the insurance sector is still lower than the H-shares, so the market is not likely to end. We maintain this week's expected higherviews unchanged. At the same time, we are very concerned about the deep development of Ping An acquisition in China, that the market will have a strong positive stimulus. China Ping An acquisition deep development, indicating that the depth of development in the valuation advantage, also means that the small bank shares have value phenomenon, so the small plate bank stocks have further higher requirements, this Monday's banking sector trend has proved this. On the other hand, China's security itself is covered by the lowest valuations in the market, which also stimulates the strengthening of insurance. If banks and insurance, which have a strong impact on the index, are strengthened at the same time, the risk of a market decline will quickly decrease.　　On the contrary, the possibility of a substantial pull is not ruled out. Concerned about the international market and blue chips in the short-term optimistic trend compared to last week, the May macroeconomic data published in the medium term bearish. The continued low CPI and PPI suggest that we have not recovered from the macro economy. From the data on investment, 4 trillion of the policy has been effective, and investment growth is expected to reach its peak in June and then remain. But the decline in imports and exports has not reversed and consumption has stabilized, thus showing that the macroeconomic recovery is likely to be postponed.　　And in the international economy, the United States, Europe and other important countries recently released a series of data has not shown significant signs of recovery, but also make the recovery of imports and exports become remote. In the international market, the recent weakening of the dollar has rebounded, which we believe is highly correlated with the uncertain outlook for the global economy. In the aftermath of the recovery, some of the international money began to change the early optimism to the dollar to seek refuge, which led to a rise in the dollar, non-ferrous metals, gold and other falls, high oil prices shocks. At present, oil is in more than 70 dollars, gold under the 1000 dollar Integer off, the dollar is in the sensitive area near 80. From the second half of last week to the Monday, the dollar's rebound has been very clear, while gold has been falling. Reflected in the A-share market, is the gold, non-ferrous plate shocks fell, so in the short term to such stocks to advise investors to avoid; in the medium term, once the market recovery is expected to weaken, not only the oil, non-ferrous resources and other prices continue to rebound base is destroyed, the entire blue chip sector has a certain downside risk. Therefore, the author thinks that the medium-term outlook of stock market has the indication of the development to the air, which may induce an interim adjustment and should be treated cautiously.