Analysts expect Grand game fourth quarter to increase 5%

Guide: Market analyst Zhangxiaofan in Monday on the U.S. investment website Seeking Alpha, the Grand Game (Nasdaqgs:game) in 2009, the fourth quarter is expected to achieve revenue of 195 million U.S. dollars, the chain increase by 5%.　　The following is the full text of the article: Shanda Games will be released on February 28 in the fourth quarter of 2009 results and the first quarter of 2010 forecast. I expect the company to achieve the fourth quarter revenue of 195 million U.S. dollars, the chain increase by 5%, to meet the management expectations of the upper limit.　　I think this strong performance is driven by the steady growth of the legendary series and will make Shanda play the second highest-income online gaming company in China.　　Looking to the future, I expect "Legend 2", "Legend of the World", "Legend", "Return of Legends", "the Biography of Heroes handed" and other 5 "Legends" series of games will promote the Grand game 2010 the first quarter to achieve stable growth. The legendary series of games continued to grow steadily in the fourth quarter of 2009.　　According to my research, Shanda's "legendary" series of games in the first quarter of ACU (average online players) increased by 4% in the quarter, to 423,000 people, the total income of the chain increased by 5.3%. This stable performance is mainly by the "Return of Legend" and "the Biography of Heroes handed down" the two new games strong revenue growth. This also offsets a slight decline in income from the legendary 2 and legendary world. My research shows that the ACU of legend 2 and legendary world in the fourth quarter of 2009 were 140,000 and 108,000 respectively.　　The other three "legends" series of games ACU sum of 175,000, accounting for the series of games ACU total of 41%. The composition of this ACU shows that Shanda has successfully dispersed the revenues of Legends 2 and the legendary world.　　I suggest investors reassess the risk of a big game's revenue concentration: The company's reliance on Legends 2 and the legendary world is far below the general expectations of investors. The current trend shows that Shanda games will gain steady growth in the first quarter of 2010. According to my research, despite the short-term decline during the spring Festival, the daily use of the main games of Shanda remained stable in the first quarter of 2010. The legend series continues to be the main growth driver, contributing more than 75% of the revenue to Shanda's games.　　"The Tower of Eternity", "Legend 2", "Legendary World" and "Adventure Island" have become the highest ACU four games in the quarter to date. Noteworthy is the "legendary Heroes Turn", "Stardust Legend" and "Swallow World 2" and other new releases of the game. The three games had a positive performance in the fourth quarter of 2009 and are expected to grow considerably in the first quarter of 2010.　　According to the above analysis, I think the Grand game in the first quarter of 2010 will maintain single-digit growth rate. Thanks to its excellent operational capability and unique understanding of the industry's value chain and the ability to use it, I think the Grand game will continue to grow steadily in the future. (Ding Macro)